VZCZCXRO4043
PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW
DE RUEHBUL #0994/01 1101157
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 201157Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8535
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000994 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: CANDIDATE REGISTRATION: WHAT IS HAPPENING (AND 
NOT) AT THE TOP OF THE TICKETS 
 
REF: A. KABUL 371 
     ¶B. KABUL 956 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY.  Afghanistan's presidential hopefuls are 
scanning political circles in search of running mates to fill 
the two vice presidential slots on their tickets, apparently 
unaware or unconcerned with a rapidly approaching April 
25-May 8 registration period, at which time candidates will 
be required to commit to their vice presidential picks and 
resolve renunciations of foreign citizenship.  No dual 
national Americans rumored to be contesting the election have 
come to the Embassy yet to renounce their citizenship. 
Moreover, with less than one week remaining until the 
beginning of candidate registration, no candidate - including 
Karzai - has revealed his running mates.  Once the filing 
deadline passes, candidate tickets are locked in for the 
entire election period.  If a second-round runoff is 
necessary, candidates will not be able to realign to form 
stronger tickets.  Thus, we expect candidates may nominate 
relatively unknown running mates.  This could mean even less 
relevance for the vice presidential offices and diminished 
chances for candidates to forge multi-ethnic governing 
coalitions.  End Summary. 
 
The Afghan Vice Presidencies 
---------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Similar to the US system, the Afghan Constitution 
assigns little official role for the vice presidents beyond 
assuming the presidency in the absence of the incumbent. 
Karzai has restricted the vice presidents' ability to act as 
president when he is out of the country, in large part due to 
an intense political rivalry between Karzai and First VP 
Ahmed Zia Massoud (ref A).  Karzai has better relations with 
Second VP Karim Khalili, an important strategic liaison with 
Hazara communities and Iran.  Karzai has directed both vice 
presidents to oversee cross-cutting issues in the Cabinet 
(e.g. Massoud handling economics and Khalili refugee 
repatriation).  Both have complained that the lack of their 
own budget authority has minimized their influence. 
 
¶3. (U) The more practical role of the vice presidents has 
been to attract ethnic votes for their running mate.  Many 
credit Khalili for drawing enough Hazara votes to help Karzai 
clear the 50 percent barrier for a first-round victory in 
2004, though most analysts doubt Massoud attracted Tajik 
votes that wouldn't have gone to Karzai otherwise.  In 2004, 
the major non-Pashtun candidates concentrated on 
demonstrating their popularity among their own ethnic group, 
helping Karzai and his pan-ethnic slate top Yunus Qanooni, 
the Tajik runner up, by 38 points.  But in 2009, all major 
candidates have spoken of the need to forge a majority 
coalition from among the country's ethnic minorities. 
Rumored iterations of various presidential slates almost 
always consist of a Pashtun president, Tajik Vice President, 
and Hazara or Uzbek Second Vice President.  United Front 
candidate Abdullah Abdullah, who has mixed Pashtun/Tajik 
heritage, is reportedly seeking a Pashtun First Vice 
President running mate to help bolster his appeal to Pashtuns. 
 
Registration Deadline Fast Approaching 
---------- 
 
¶4. (U) Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission 
regulations require candidates to register their full ticket 
(themselves and their VP running mates) when they file their 
paperwork.  The registration period runs from April 25-May 8. 
 IEC Deputy Chief Technical Officer Zekriya Barakzai informed 
us that regulations will require presidential and vice 
presidential candidates to appear together and in person at 
the IEC headquarters in Kabul to register their ticket. 
 
¶5. (SBU)  According to the Constitution, all candidates 
(including VP nominees) must renounce non-Afghan citizenships 
before they file to run.  Some campaigns have confided the 
names of wealthy or connected dual national Americans as 
running mates under consideration.  Our consular section, 
however, has not processed any requests to renounce 
citizenship from the rumored candidates.  In the case of US 
citizens, loss of citizenship occurs only after CA/L has 
reviewed and approved relevant forms, and not on the date of 
the renunciation oath. 
 
Candidates Aim Big, But Come Up Mostly Empty Handed 
--------- 
 
¶6. (U) With less than three weeks to go before the 
registration deadline, no candidate has been willing to give 
up his shot at the presidency and settle for a vice 
presidential position. Because the registration process locks 
in VP candidates for the entire election period, candidates 
 
KABUL 00000994  002 OF 002 
 
 
who make it to a second round of voting cannot use the VP 
positions to barter for support from candidates eliminated in 
the first round. 
 
¶7. (U) United Front leaders have actively courted the major 
Pashtun opposition candidates (Anwarulhaq Ahadi, Ashraf 
Ghani, Ahmed Ali Jalali, Gul Aqa Sherzai, and Mirwais Yaseni) 
to drop their campaigns and run on a unity ticket headed by 
former Foreign Minister Abdullah.  Those candidates have 
responded with their own offers, but with themselves at the 
top of the ticket.  Sherzai campaign manager Khalid Pashtun 
confided to PolOff that Sherzai had tried to break Lower 
House Speaker Qanooni away from the UF to run as Sherzai's 
First Vice President.  Qanooni supposedly toyed with the idea 
for weeks, finally rejecting it last week as Abdullah emerged 
as the UF's official nominee (ref B).  Sherzai is now 
considering a handful of relatively unknown running mates, 
including some with American citizenship. 
 
Karzai Most Skilled at Vice Presidential Sweepstakes 
--------- 
 
¶8. (U) As a favorite for re-election, Karzai has had the most 
luck courting vice presidential aspirants.  It is almost 
certain Karzai will drop Massoud.  We and most observers 
expect he will ask UF co-founder Marshall Fahim to run as his 
First VP candidate, in an attempt to carve in to the UF's 
advantage among Tajiks.  We expect Khalili will stay on as 
Karzai's running mate for Second VP, although all campaigns, 
including Karzai's, have at times tried to woo influential 
Hazara leader Mohammed Mohaqqeq.  Mohaqqeq has told some he 
is inclined to join Abdullah's campaign, but has held off on 
making a firm commitment to the UF. 
 
¶9. (U) In contrast to American politics, most Afghan 
candidates are not turning to parliamentarians or governors 
for their running mates, despite strategies to shore up 
ethnic and regional support.  Nearly all governors are Karzai 
loyalists.  The few who are not are hesitant to resign their 
lucrative positions to join uncertain opposition campaigns, 
while the handful of rumored running mates from Parliament, 
such as Mohaqqeq, owe their influence more to pre-democratic 
experiences as warlords than to legislative prowess. 
 
Consequences of a Low-Profile Vice Presidency 
----------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) With most of the big names in Afghan politics 
locked into their own campaigns or uninterested in serving as 
vice president, it is likely many candidates will register 
with relatively unknown running mates.  As mentioned above, 
the registration rules preclude last-minute ticket forming. 
A president could force a VP to resign and nominate a 
replacement shortly after inauguration as part of a back-room 
deal.  But any new VP nominee would require confirmation by 
the Lower House, which relishes its spoiler role.  To build 
political coalitions, particularly in the event of a runoff 
vote, it will be more likely that campaigns will negotiate 
Cabinet positions and other power-sharing arrangements, 
further diminishing the relevance of the two vice 
presidencies.  However, no matter how irrelevant the vice 
presidencies become under these political circumstances, they 
will retain their primary constitutional responsibility:  to 
assume the presidency in the event of the death or 
resignation of the incumbent.  For that reason, we hope that 
the current candidates pay close attention to the 
qualifications and suitability of their vice presidential 
choices. 
RICCIARDONE