VZCZCXRO3721
PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW
DE RUEHBUL #0991 1100347
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 200347Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8531
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS KABUL 000991 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: JUNBESH, WAHDAT PARTIES FORGE ELECTION PACT 
 
REF: KABUL 956 
 
¶1. (U) The majority-Uzbek Junbesh-e-Milli and majority-Hazara 
Wahdat-e-Mardum political parties announced on April 18 that 
they would support an as-yet unnamed single candidate for 
president in this summer's election.  Junbesh Chairman Sayed 
Noorullah and Wahdat leader Mohammed Mohaqqeq held a joint 
press conference to publicize the agreement, which also calls 
for the two parties to coordinate their strategies in 
provincial council elections.  Both Junbesh and Mohaqqeq's 
Wahdat faction count most of their supporters in northern 
provinces. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Party leaders have talked up a Junbesh-Wahdat pact 
for months.  By announcing their strategy to support a single 
candidate while withholding the name, Mohaqqeq and Noorullah 
have made clear they intend Hazaras and Uzbeks (just short of 
20 percent of Afghanistan's population) to be the key swing 
vote in the election.  Both parties have nominal alliances 
with the United Front opposition coalition, but the two party 
leaders have avoided publicly backing the UF's nomination of 
former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah to be the 
opposition coalition's candidate (reftel).  Noorullah has 
condemned the UF as a collection of undemocratic warlords and 
Mohaqqeq has made clear his preference to be on the winning 
side, no matter the candidate, in various private 
conversations with PolOffs. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Junbesh and Wahdat-e-Mardum maintain significant 
influence over Uzbek and Hazara political leanings, though 
their endorsement does not guarantee full support for a 
candidate.  Junbesh founder Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum has 
hinted he may make a separate endorsement from his exile in 
Turkey, if only to demonstrate his continued popularity among 
Uzbeks over the party's current leaders.  And although 
Mohaqqeq may lead the most popular Wahdat faction, he still 
competes with other Hazaras, including Second Vice President 
Karim Khalili, for influence.  Still, assuming the pact holds 
and Dostum does not attempt to break Junbesh's credibility 
with a separate endorsement, the Hazara-Uzbek alliance could 
swing as many as two million votes to its preferred candidate. 
RICCIARDONE