VZCZCXRO1414
PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW
DE RUEHBUL #0956 1061208
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 161208Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8428
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS KABUL 000956 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: UNITED FRONT MAKES ABDULLAH ENDORSEMENT OFFICIAL 
 
REF: KABUL 535 
 
¶1. (SBU)    The United Front opposition coalition announced 
on April 15 it had nominated former Foreign Minister Abdullah 
Abdullah as its candidate for president in this summer's 
election.    Abdullah offers an impressive political and 
international resume, but we continue to assess that Karzai 
runs ahead of Abdullah either in a multi-candidate field or 
in a head-to-head race. 
¶2. (SBU) The nomination comes after months of internal UF 
debate over whether a UF candidate could unite the 
coalition's various factions and attract enough outside 
support from other parties to put its candidate over the 50 
percent requirement for a first- or second-round victory. 
Abdullah emerged as the front runner earlier this year after 
several UF insiders publicly questioned First Vice President 
Massoud's ability to win the election.  Massoud, hurt by what 
he saw as a betrayal by his father-in-law Prof. Burhanuddin 
Rabbani and other UF leaders, clung to his candidacy until 
other influential UF leaders urged him earlier this month to 
stand aside.  Massoud has threatened to run as an independent 
candidate, but most UF members believe he will eventually 
return to the UF fold. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Still, the UF remains badly fractured (reftel). 
Founding member Marshall Fahim Khan is now aligned with 
President Karzai and hoping for a prominent role in 
government should Karzai win re-election.  Both factions of 
the majority-Uzbek Junbesh-e-Milli party have kept their 
options open; Junbesh founder Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum and 
current Junbesh Chairman Sayed Noorullah have both reportedly 
told supporters not to discount a potential alliance with 
Karzai.  Influential Hazara leader Haji Mohammed Mohaqqeq, 
too, has refrained from firmly committing to the UF, even 
though Abdullah has reportedly offered Mohaqqeq the Second 
Vice President spot on his ticket. 
 
¶4. (SBU) UF spokesman Sayed Fazel Sancharaki told PolOff the 
coalition has not yet settled on its vice presidential 
candidates.  Coalition leaders Rabbani, Lower House Speaker 
Qanooni, and Ahamd Wali Massoud (the VP's brother) are 
lobbying (with little apparent success) most of the major 
Pashtun candidates, including former Finance Ministers Ashraf 
Ghani and Anwarulhaq Ahadi, to accept the First VP position 
on the UF's ticket.  Pashtun UF member Mustapha Zahir Shah 
appears to be the default choice for First VP if the 
coalition fails to attract outside support, though Zahir too 
has received offers from Karzai to join his campaign. 
Rabbani's chief of staff and son Sallaludin Rabbani told 
PolOff that with the decision now behind them, coalition 
leaders could focus on "taking the campaign seriously and 
reaching out to the public." 
RICCIARDONE