VZCZCXRO1279
PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW
DE RUEHBUL #0947/01 1060854
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 160854Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8416
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000947 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KWMN PHUM AF
SUBJECT: HIA TO ENDORSE ITS OWN CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT 
 
REF: KABUL 139 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY.  Hezb-e-Islami Afghanistan's (HIA) leader 
Arghandewal says party members are dissatisfied with the 
existing presidential candidates and plan to nominate a 
candidate 
from within their own party next week.  Arghandewal will 
promote Gulbuddin Helal, Hezb-e-Islami's political director 
in the 1990s, at the party's nominating conference on April 
¶24.  Arghandewal acknowledges HIA is looking to leverage its 
influence in a second round of voting rather than forming a 
coalition with other camps and aiming for a first-round 
victory.  HIA appreciated US efforts to promote a level 
playing field, but advised the US and other foreign countries 
to not limit their contact with opposition candidates to only 
three or four people.  HIA members in Parliament tried to 
block the Shia Family Law earlier this year, though largely 
out of opposition to a dual judicial system and not due to 
the specific wording of the controversial law.  End Summary. 
 
Candidate Coming Soon (This Time We Mean It) 
---------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) HIA Chairman Abdul Hadi Arghandewal told PolOff on 
April 15 that party members had labored unsuccessfully for 
more than eight months to reach a consensus on its choice for 
president.  President Karzai fell out of the running earlier 
this year due to his unresponsiveness to the party's core 
issue (local governance improvements) and outreach to 
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, with whom HIA's leadership has cut off 
official contact (reftel).  Arghandewal dismissed other 
candidates as vague on the issues and unwilling to release a 
detailed platform.  HIA members want to vote for a passionate 
candidate serious about providing fast results - not someone 
looking to further his political career. 
 
¶3. (SBU) With the deadline for candidate registration quickly 
approaching (May 8), Arghandewal last week directed HIA's 
provincial committees to send him lists of three names for 
preferred candidates.  More than half of the committees 
returned lists with Arghandewal at the top, and nearly all 
sent in candidates from within the party.  Arghandewal told 
PolOff he has no interest in running, but takes the 
endorsements as a sign the provincial committees are willing 
to defer to his choice for the party's nominee, as long as 
the nominee is an existing HIA member. 
 
Arghandewal Identifies Gulbuddin Helal, a Dark Horse 
---------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Arghandewal will promote Gulbuddin Helal, 
Hezb-e-Islami's political director in the 1990s, at the 
party's nominating conference on April 24.  Helal ran 
Hezb-e-Islami's political operations out of Peshawar, 
Pakistan until about 2000.  In 2002, Helal began organizing 
party members to break from Hekmatyar's militant 
Hezb-e-Islami/Gulbuddin (HIG) and rejoin the Afghan political 
mainstream.  Arghandewal credited Helal for negotiating HIA's 
entrance into Afghan politics with Karzai in 2004.  Shortly 
thereafter, Helal left Afghanistan for leukemQ.Qs@1QyQ4nQmR He now divides his 
time between Kabul and Saudi 
Arabia.  Arghandewal claims Helal has recovered and is now in 
gooT[jfQQVQ$][JMQf"oz}soutsider.  With a 10-15 percent first round result in its 
pocket, the party will be in a strong position to negotiate 
with candidates in the second round, where strategic 
negotiation is required.  HIA leaders are comfortable with 
this strategy as long as it appears no candidate will cross 
the 50 percent threshold in the first round.  "The first 
round is about showing our strength, and the second round is 
where we play to be on the winning side," Arghandewal said. 
 
Level Playing Field:  Appreciate US Efforts, But Want Boarder 
Approach 
---------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Arghandewal said HIA leaders had taken note of 
recent US efforts to promote a level playing field among all 
presidential candidates.  The party welcomed those efforts, 
but many believed US VIP appearances with opposition 
candidates should include a larger circle of likely 
candidates.  Many HIA members had the impression the US was 
improperly promoting 3-4 candidates as the "front-runners," 
 
KABUL 00000947  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
though Arghandewal recognized that HIA and other parties had 
gotten a late start in nominating their own candidates. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Arghandewal welcomed efforts to commit Karzai and 
the Afghan government to strong regulations on the 
impartiality of government officials and security forces. He 
believed, however, that Karzai supporters within the 
government would still be able to influence the course or 
conduct of the electoral process and stay under the radar or 
otherwise escape punishment.  Campaign finance restrictions 
were "unrealistic" and unimportant to the party.  As a 
grassroots operation with an existing large membership, HIA's 
expenses should be significantly less compared to other major 
campaigns that will rely on media advertising and building 
networks from scratch.  Arghandewal was confident he could 
finance his candidate's campaign with just a handful of 
$10,000-$50,000 donations from businessmen within the party. 
The party's top concern is financing and organizing 
get-out-the-vote operations on election day.  Arghandewal 
predicts Karzai will gain a huge advantage by using 
government resources to move supporters to the polls. 
 
HIA on Shia Family Law 
---------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Arghandewal said HIA executive committee member 
Mawlawi Ataullah Ludin (Nangarhar, Pashtun) tried to block 
the Shia Family Law in the Lower House earlier this year.  As 
chairman of the Justice Committee, Ludin opposed the law as 
an unnecessary dual justice system.  Arghandewal, Ludin, and 
other HIA leaders recognize the Constitution permits a 
separate Shia jurisprudence, but prefer it to be non-binding 
or otherwise not codified into law.  Ludin held up a vote for 
several weeks until conservative Shia MPs threatened to label 
the party anti-Shia.  Worried that such allegations would 
hurt HIA's recruitment efforts in Hazara communities, Ludin 
stood aside.  HIA has struggled to build a women's wing to 
match its support among men, so has largely remained silent 
in the current debate over the law, though many members are 
uncomfortable with perceived Western influence over the 
country's religious affairs. 
RICCIARDONE