VZCZCXRO3227
PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW
DE RUEHBUL #1097/01 1201248
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301248Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8688
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 001097 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION MPS CONTINUE TO FAN DEBATE ON 
CONTINUITY OF GOVERNMENT 
 
REF: KABUL 866 
 
¶1. (SBU)  SUMMARY.  Although most of Afghanistan's political 
establishment has moved on, some parliamentarians continue to 
stir debate over continuity of government after the May 22 
constitutional expiration of President Karzai's term.  The 
Supreme Court last month affirmed the legitimacy of Karzai 
remaining in office until the election - an opinion accepted 
by many MPs and leading opposition candidates, although never 
formally ratified by legislation (reftel).  The MPs keeping 
this debate alive are aware it is a battle they cannot win, 
but are determined to use the issue in an attempt to weaken 
and embarrass Karzai heading into election season, even if it 
further marginalizes the already weak legislative branch. 
End Summary. 
 
Majorities in Both Houses Supportive, But Unable to Muster 
Official Vote 
---------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  In the four weeks since the Supreme Court's 
statement supporting Karzai remaining in office after May 22, 
several MPs have weighed in with their official support.  In 
a poorly attended Upper House session shortly after the 
Court's announcement, some 45 MPs - nearly all present - 
approved a voice-vote resolution backing the court's opinion. 
 However, a few MPs later criticized Deputy Speaker Hamed 
Gailani (Paktia, Pashtun) for presenting the vote as an 
official Upper House statement even though there was not a 
quorum present.  (Notably, Gailani and other Upper House 
leaders have not called for an official vote when the Upper 
House has had a quorum - despite the fact that two-thirds of 
the members owe their seats to Karzai.) 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Opposition leader and Lower House Speaker Yunus 
Qanooni (Kabul, Tajik), a regular thorn in Karzai's side, has 
allowed debate over Karzai's legitimacy to drag on in the 
chamber's debates and committee meetings.  While Qanooni has 
privately told US officials he accepts the rationale for 
Karzai remaining in office over the summer, he has done 
nothing to resolve the debate, but instead quietly keeps it 
alive.  Earlier this month, Qanooni appointed a 20-member 
parliamentary commission (10 Karzai supporters and 10 
opponents) to study the issue, all but guaranteeing stalemate 
and continued debate.  Qanooni told the Charge on April 29 
that he believed the commission was "hopelessly deadlocked" 
and did not expect any progress before May 22. 
 
¶4. (SBU)  One anti-Karzai MP on the Lower House commission 
showed PolOff his side's proposal for the interim period, a 
proposal which would place significant restrictions on a 
Karzai-led interim government.  The plan would require 
Parliament's approval both for Karzai to stay on and for 
separate confirmation votes for any new interim vice 
presidents.  The proposal also prohibited the interim 
president from making Cabinet shuffles.  Karzai supporters 
rejected the resolution as extra-constitutional, and no one 
expects the proposal to gain any traction. 
 
Media Reports Put MPs on Both Sides of the Issue 
--------- 
 
¶5. (SBU)  Afghan media reported on April 27 the Palace had 
issued a statement praising the decision of 150 MPs to 
support the Supreme Court announcement backing Karzai's 
extended tenure.  Post contacted several MPs who confirmed 
they were among those supporting continuity of government 
under Karzai, but none could provide a copy of the statement, 
nor would any name more than a handful of other MPs who 
shared their opinion. 
 
¶6. (SBU)  A separate group of MPs (media reports put the 
group's numbers at "more than 70") launched a campaign to 
press Karzai into submitting his plan for continuity of 
government to Parliament for approval.  This group has also 
been unable to provide a list of named supporters in 
Parliament or introduce a resolution to either house. 
 
Cynical Opposition Sacrifices Institution Building for 
Politics 
--------- 
 
¶7. (SBU)  Most opposition leaders accept the government will 
stay on after May 22 whether or not Parliament voices its 
support or formally presents an alternate option.  However, 
they hope to undermine Karzai's image by prolonging the 
debate.  Some Lower House MPs, like Kabir Ranjbar (Kabul, 
Pashtun), are genuinely motivated to legalize the post-May 22 
government across all three branches.  Ranjbar believes that 
if the interim arrangement has official buy-in from 
Parliament, opposition groups will be less likely to protest 
 
KABUL 00001097  002 OF 002 
 
 
or agitate against the government over the summer.  However, 
too few MPs are seeking a reasonable compromise.  Speaker 
Qanooni has once again played the role of protagonist, 
stoking the debate to the point where easy resolution is 
unlikely, while presenting himself as an innocent bystander. 
This short-sighted approach by Qanooni and his supporters 
serves only to further marginalize an already weak 
legislative branch, increasingly tipping the balance of power 
to the executive. 
RICCIARDONE