VZCZCXRO2906
PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW
DE RUEHBUL #1094 1200712
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 300712Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8683
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS KABUL 001094 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AF
SUBJECT: CANDIDATES EYE POSSIBLE DEALS BEFORE DEADLINE 
 
REF: KABUL 994 
 
¶1. (SBU)  SUMMARY.  Six days into the two-week registration 
period for the presidential election, no candidate among the 
more than 60 names considering a run has filed his or her 
completed paperwork.  Behind-the-scenes efforts to 
consolidate campaigns among the leading candidates are in 
full swing.  At the heart of these negotiations are Cabinet 
positions and vice presidential slots, the latter of which 
presidential candidates need to lock in during the 
registration phase and cannot swap out during the campaign or 
between the first and second rounds of voting (reftel).  With 
more than a dozen leading politicians caught up in the 
presidential and vice presidential sweepstakes and no names 
yet officially on the ballot, the campaigns are engaging in a 
serious game of political chicken, waiting for other camps to 
blink first and commit to a ticket.  End Summary. 
 
Front Runners, Dark Horses Alike Still Not On Ballot 
---------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  President Karzai formally announced his intention 
to run on April 27, though he did not disclose his running 
mates.  Karzai leaves for Washington on May 4 and may not 
return until after the May 8 registration deadline, so he 
must register in the next few days.  United Front candidate 
Abdullah Abdullah earlier hinted he would register early in 
the registration period, but his campaign manager admitted to 
PolOff that the campaign had yet to finalize its vice 
presidential choices.  Another UF source said the opposition 
coalition has offered its vice presidential slots to two 
candidates, who have yet to accept.  At least one of them 
(probably Hazara leader Haji Mohammed Mohaqqeq) is in serious 
negotiations with another campaign.  Earlier, Pashtun 
royalist Mustapha Zahir told UF leaders he was not interested 
in running on the ticket.  More than six other names are 
still in the running as backups if the UF's top two choices 
for VPs bow out.  Former Interior Minister Ali Amhad Jalali 
told the Charge April 29 that the leading opposition 
candidates had not made any progress in uniting to merge 
their campaigns. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  At least 10 of the roughly 60 names mentioned as 
possible presidential candidates have dual citizenship, with 
at least seven of those holding U.S. citizenship (this ranges 
from serious candidates like Ashraf Ghani to more obscure 
personalities we believe to still be residing in the US). 
Several more rumored vice presidential candidates hold 
foreign citizenship as well.  To date, only one AmCit ) a 
possible candidate we hadn't heard of before ) has 
approached the Embassy's consular section about renouncing 
his citizenship.  After considering his options, he decided 
not to renounce. 
 
Thinking Twice About Losing Citizenship 
---------- 
 
¶4. (SBU)  The loss of citizenship appears to be making some 
candidates think twice before committing themselves to a 
campaign.  Some, including Ghani, have downplayed their 
foreign citizenship in recent weeks and have been vague on 
whether they intend to comply with the constitutional 
requirement to renounce non-Afghan citizenship.  Independent 
Election Commission (IEC) officials have stated repeatedly 
that they iften` Qo trcd`A-j'~`e|u$tw^EGJt25. (SBU)  We expect most candidates 
to wait until the final 
days of the registration period to commit their campaigns for 
the long-haul, though foreign travel plans will compel some, 
like Karzai, to move sooner.  Once top campaigns have 
registered their tickets, others may quickly follow. 
However, far fewer than the current 60 names are likely to 
wind up on the ballot.  Some minor candidates will fall short 
of the 10,000 voters' signatures needed to register and 
others will opt not to renounce their dual citizenship.  Some 
more serious candidates will fail to attract viable running 
mates and will decide to end their runs without ever 
registering as the leading campaigns grab the most 
sought-after vice presidential choices and lock in 
post-election power-sharing deals. 
RICCIARDONE