VZCZCXRO9142
PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW
DE RUEHBUL #1044/01 1160555
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 260555Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8609
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 001044 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT: INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS FEELING OUT THEIR ROLE 
 
¶1.  (U) SUMMARY: On April 22, the EU exploratory mission on 
election observation, and a representative of OSCE/ODIHR, 
briefed donor nation representatives in Kabul on their 
initial observations.  Some team members updated a smaller 
group of donor nation representatives on April 25, providing 
a clearer picture of anticipated activities.  In country 
April 15-26, team members traveled to Kandahar, Mazar-e 
Sharif and Herat to gain a broad security and logistical 
perspective.  The team is confident that its organizations 
will sponsor observer missions, although final details remain 
undetermined.  Concerns regarding logistical difficulties, 
mission independence, and other possible observation bodies 
dominated the meetings.  END SUMMARY. 
 
SHAPE OF THE EU MISSION 
----------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) In the April 22 meeting, the EU mission stressed 
the goals of safety for observers, value for the cost, and 
improved methodology, highlighting that the fluid situation 
in Afghanistan would require flexibility in planning.  They 
suggested that the observer mission would meet and exceed the 
2005 benchmark for the rigor of observation and estimated a 
team of between 50-70 participants.  Security issues will 
shape the deployment, which is unlikely to cover all 
provinces, even if it were expanded to include seconded EU 
member diplomats already in country. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) On April 25, after traveling outside Kabul, the EU 
team signaled it was looking to focus on staffing and 
deploying for a long-term observation mission (rather than a 
mission that would surge closer to the election date).  These 
long-term observers would meet with local authorities, 
officials and civil society in the build-up to the elections. 
 The survey mission expected to propose a core team to be 
based in Kabul, with additional hub groups in 8-9 cities.  In 
the north and west, they see observers deploying as for a 
conventional EU election observation mission, with UN 
standard group houses and private bodyguards for security. 
Based on its visit to Kandahar, the delegation believed 
long-term observation in the southern provinces would be 
possible from security and logistics perspectives.  They 
discussed a small presence through embedded observers in the 
member nation PRTs at Helmand and Uruzgan.  These teams would 
not do voting day observation due to poor security.  An 
observer might embed in Kandahar under the EU's existing 
agreement with Canada. 
 
HOW TO COVER RC-EAST 
-------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The team had not determined whether or how to cover 
the east, where the PRTs are run by the United States.  The 
team showed openness to embedding observers in U.S. PRTs if 
an agreement could be reached.  They were firm that, due to 
EU practice, the EU mission could not accept seconded 
personnel U.S. personnel as any mission member had to be a 
national of an EU member state, Norway, Switzerland or 
Canada.  Post and RC-East are arranging a survey trip for the 
EU security and logistics representative, who is staying a 
few days longer. 
 
DECLINING ISAF SECURITY 
----------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The likely composition of a typical EU observer 
mission would include a political head of mission, a deputy, 
and experts to review between 5-10 thematic elements (e.g. 
minority participation, coalition building), plus support 
staff. With the budget currently unknown, the delegation 
estimated the mission could cost 2-5 times that of a normal 
observer mission.  The survey team traveled by ISAF military 
convoy in Mazar and rejected that style of operation as 
inconsistent with an observer mission.  They were clear that 
the EU mission would not seek ISAF or ANSF support for close 
protection or ground transport.  The mission intends to 
employ private security companies for travel in armored 
vehicles and bodyguards.  The team welcomed the availability 
of ISAF "in extremis" support and planed to explore emergency 
access to NATO medical facilities. 
 
OTHER OBSERVATION MISSIONS 
-------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) The OSCE representative suggested her organization 
would send a 10-12 member working level support team for 
approximately five weeks.  She stressed the differences 
between the OSCE mandate and that of the EU team, which would 
focus on different thematic areas.  The OSCE support team, 
would actively recommend procedural improvements during the 
election process, while the EU team would emphasize the 
observer mandate, noting their goals as watching, noting and 
 
KABUL 00001044  002 OF 002 
 
 
reporting.  On April 22, a Japanese Embassy representative 
announced that Japan was considering sending a 5-6 person 
bilateral observer team to Bamyan, drawing some members from 
the embassy. 
 
NEXT STEPS 
---------- 
 
¶7.  (U) On April 26, most of the EU team returned to 
Brussels, except for the logistical and security 
representative.  The team will draft its initial report and 
recommend a composition and operational plan for the mission. 
 On the basis of the report, the EU Commissioner for external 
relations could approve the plan as early as mid-May.  Once 
determined, the EU would announce the details of the team and 
its deployment through an official letter to the Independent 
Electoral Commission.  A logistics team would travel to Kabul 
to advance the mission, followed by long-term observers 
arriving by early July. 
RICCIARDONE