VZCZCXRO5003
OO RUEHDT RUEHPB
DE RUEHJA #0658/01 1000555
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 100555Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY JAKARTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2093
INFO RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000658 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP; NSC FOR E.PHU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT'S PARTY SET TO WIN LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS 
 
REF: JAKARTA 00656 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1.  (U) This message is Sensitive but Unclassified -- Please 
handle accordingly. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  As quick counts crystallize the day after 
the April 9 national legislative elections, it appears that 
President Yudhoyono's Partai Demokrat (PD) will emerge 
victorious.  PD easily tops the list of nine parties which 
seem set to garner enough votes to enter Parliament (DPR). 
PD is followed by main contenders Golkar and the Indonesia 
Party of Democratic Struggle (PDI-P).  Four major 
Islamic-oriented parties trail the three secular nationalist 
parties.  As the counting continues, the situation across the 
country seems largely calm and peaceful on April 10.  Septel 
reviews the situation in Aceh.  END SUMMARY. 
 
LATEST RESULTS GIVE EDGE TO PD 
 
¶3.  (SBU) While official results will take time, preliminary 
estimates from quick counts give a good picture of the state 
of play.  Nine of Indonesia's thirty-eight parties are poised 
to cross the parliamentary threshold (2.5% of the national 
vote) and get seats in the DPR.  At just above 20% of support 
so far, PD is so far strongly leading the pack, followed by 
Golkar and PDI-P at approximately 14-15% each. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) This represents a huge gain for PD, which roughly 
tripled its vote share since 2004 (when they won 7.45% of the 
national vote).  If the results hold out, it also represents 
a bad showing for both Golkar and PDI-P, which were the big 
winners in 2004 with 21% of the vote and 18.5% of the vote 
respectively.  Results also seem to indicate that the 
President's PD party could gain the 20% of the DPR seats 
required to nominate its own presidential candidate.  Voters 
appear to have supported the stability, centrism and relative 
prosperity that Yudhoyono has brought to Indonesia over the 
past five years. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Islamic-oriented parties also seem to be losers in 
this election.  If quick count results hold out, several 
small parties will disappear from the DPR in 2009.  Three 
significant Islamic-oriented parties declined in vote share. 
The first, the Suharto-era United Development Party (PPP), 
the third largest party in the DPR (8.2% of the 2004 vote) 
has declined to a projected 5% of the vote.  The National 
Mandate Party (PAN) and ex-President Abdurahman Wahid's 
National Awakening Party (PKB) will also probably decline in 
vote share.  Only the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) held 
firm at 7%, the same as 2004, but did not make the big gains 
it had expected.  None has gained ground.  Again, the above 
figures are all estimates and unofficial. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Not everything is upbeat.  Golkar Chief Vice 
President Kalla and PDI-P leader Megawati have signalled some 
dissatisfaction with the electoral process.  Moreover, Kalla 
has made statements that implied that Golkar's poor showing 
could be due to voting irregularities and said Golkar will 
monitor the counting.  PDI-P party officials have also stated 
that they will vigilantly watch for problems.  This type of 
grousing in the case of a strong PD showing was expected and 
probably will increase if the vote count confirms the 
estimates. 
 
OFFICIAL RESULTS WILL TAKE TIME 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Official results will take time as the official 
counting gets off to a slow but steady start.  The KPU plans 
to begin the national vote count 2 p.m. April 10.  KPU has 
set up an Elections Information Center for vote tabulation, 
to stay open until April 20.  Final official results are 
expected to be announced May 8. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) At midnight April 9, Poloff and PolFSNs observed 
counting processes at several polling stations, accompanying 
officials who took ballot boxes to municipal offices. 
Officials there reviewed the ballot tallies, recorded vote 
distribution by party and sealed the ballot boxes for later 
KPU tallies.  Poloff also observed that ballot boxes were 
easily accessible--many were unsealed (poll workers reassured 
him that they would be guarded) and others had keys still in 
their locks.  There were also some unconfirmed reports that 
unused ballots were stored in the same boxes as used ballots. 
 
SITUATION CALM 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Despite some logistical issues re insufficient or 
 
JAKARTA 00000658  002 OF 002 
 
 
incorrect ballots and incomplete voter lists, the situation 
has remained calm.  Isolated incidents of vote counting 
irregularities were also reported by observers. Some pundits 
noted relatively low turnouts in several areas, particularly 
for Jakarta residents on their way out of town for the four 
day holiday weekend.  Based on current information, the 
elections appeared largely free and fair, and a success for 
Indonesia's  maturing democracy.  Septel reviews the 
situation in Aceh, where the election also proceeded largely 
smoothly. 
HEFFERN