VZCZCXRO2351
OO RUEHDT RUEHPB
DE RUEHJA #0645/01 0980925
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 080925Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY JAKARTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2077
INFO RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHHE/AMEMBASSY HELSINKI 0948
RHHJJPI/USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 JAKARTA 000645 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP, DRL, NSC FOR EPHU 
 
E.O.12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINS PREL ASEC ID
SUBJECT: ACEH ELECTIONS BODE PEACEFUL DESPITE INTIMIDATION AND 
SNAFUS 
 
REF: JAKARTA 611 
 
¶1. (U) This message was drafted by Consul General Medan.  It is 
Sensitive But Unclassified, please handle accordingly. 
 
¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY:  The Aceh Party (PA) is poised to win a plurality 
and possible outright majority in the provincial parliament as well 
as majoi(ties in several local councils in the election onAApril 9. 
The campaign period has been messy, wit  national and local parties 
complaining of pervaiive intimidation by PA supporters.  Meanwhile, 
PA has complained that local officials and the militay( interfered 
in its campaign and that its campainn materials were being stolen en 
masse.  PA cadrs" also tell of the chilling effect the string ofggrenade and arson attacks have had on its campaign. 
 
¶3.  Summary (cont.) Despite this, PA's leaders a ve acted with 
restraint.  All parties, local an  national, however, agree on one 
thing: the performance of the election supervisory body charged with 
enforcing campaign regulations (PANWASLU) has been dismal.  Most 
observers believe that there may be localized violence surrounding 
the election - as there was in 2006 - but that overall it is 
expected to be peaceful.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The Aceh Party is widely expected to perform strongly in 
the parliamentary elections on April 9. The party is strongest in 
areas with large majorities of ethnic Acehnese, including the belt 
running south and east from Pidie Jaya to East Aceh district, and in 
west coast districts including Aceh Jaya, Aceh Barat Daya and West 
Aceh - precisely the areas where so-called "independent" candidates 
affiliated with the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) polled well in the 2006 
and subsequent local government elections. 
 
¶5. (SBU) During the final days of the campaign period, PA ralliesr"esembled victory parades as supporters by the thossands marched 
through the streets in cities along the east and west coasts.  No 
other party drew ee n a fraction of those drawn to PA's rallies. 
Fe  even tried.  The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) ws" the notable 
exception.  Its rallies in Bireuenaand Lhokseumawe attracted between 
2,000 to 3,000.  After a series of massive PA campaigns around theQ 
province, however, most parties cancelled public rallies.  Even 
Golkar with its solid party structure cut back, reputedly to avoid 
appearing weak compared with PA. By the end of the campaign period, 
virtually all parties other than PA eschewed large events and 
focused instead on smaller, closed dialogues with supporters. 
 
COUNTING DELAYS EXPECTED 
------------------------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) Throughout Aceh, election and party officials boasted 
nervously that Indonesia has the most complex voting system in the 
world.  Not only is the system complex, but voting and counting is a 
time consuming process that many observers and poll workers expect 
to extend well into the evening and, in some cases, into the next 
day. In addition, observers are also concerned that poll workers 
have not been adequately trained to use the new 8-page tabulation 
forms unveiled for this election. Confusion and delays are expected. 
 
 
CAMPAIGN VIOLATIONS 
------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) By all accounts, PA supporters committed widespread 
campaign violations, particularly along the east coast.  Violations 
included threats, intimidation, assaults, and destruction of rival 
parties' campaign materials. In Pidie Jaya, for example, a popular 
candidate told Medan that due to pressure from PA members, he was 
unable to hang his own poster in front of his house. In neighboring 
Pidie district, PKS members grew tired of PA supporters' constant 
intimidation and destruction of their banners and posters, and 
protested by demonstrating in front of PA's local office. PA members 
surrounded the group and forced them to strip. The situation in this 
district became so serious that when the local police gathered all 
parties to sign a commitment to conduct a clean campaign, only PA 
and one other party agreed to do so; the others refused, calling the 
effort an empty gesture.  Elsewhere in Aceh, party leaders from 
GOLKAR, PKS, the United Development Party (PPP) and other national 
parties told Medan that the combined effects of the violations in 
several key districts made it impossible to run meaningful campaigns 
and some local party leaders there said they felt so threatened that 
they no longer slept at home to avoid possible attacks.  Outside 
PA's strongholds, incidents like these were much less common but 
still occurred.  In remote Gayo Luwes where PA is relatively weak 
the district chief of a national party filed a formal complaint that 
 
JAKARTA 00000645  002 OF 003 
 
 
PA cadres had threatened to kill her if she did not drop out of the 
election. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Local parties also complained of intense harassment. 
Because many PA supporters consider other local parties to be 
illegitimate, they harassed officials and supporters alike.  Several 
local parties told Medan that because of pervasive intimidation 
their poll watchers resigned en masse. Due to what it described as 
constant and widespread intimidation by PA, SIRA established a 
province-wide hotline for party officials to phone in complaints. 
Representatives of the Aceh People's Party (PRA) told Medan that PA 
supporters painted anti-PRA/pro-PA messages in places where rallies 
were scheduled.  Both SIRA and PRA complained that PA members 
physically assaulted their candidates in many districts. 
 
¶9. (SBU) PA leaders, on the other hand, complained that it was the 
victim of unfair campaign tactics.  Around the province PA leaders 
told observers that its flags and posters were taken down or defaced 
as quickly as they could be put up.  In remote Subulussalam, for 
example, PA had to post 24 hours guards to prevent its largest flags 
and banners from being destroyed - despite their being located 
directly in front of the party leader's house.  Party chair Muzakir 
Manaf called Medan on April 1 to report that in districts across the 
province, the police and military were singling their vehicles and 
convoys out for time consuming searches.  Governor Irwandi Yusuf 
also told Medan that the military commanders in the districts of 
Gayo Luwes, Southwest Aceh, Similue, Singkil, and elsewhere 
organized soccer competitions to coincide with dates of PA's 
campaigns to reduce the number of potential attendees.  In these and 
other districts, local government officials interfered with the 
party's campaign by instructing residents to participate in public 
works projects.  The most serious complaints by PA were that it was 
targeted by groups who distributed highly offensive anti-PA flyers 
and that military officials went door to door warning inhabitants of 
pro-PA villages to reject separatism. 
 
¶10. (SBU) In the months leading up to the election, PA facilities 
and homes were targeted in a string of arson and grenade attacks. 
The attacks occurred widely throughout the province - even in areas 
where PA was particularly weak.  These attacks had a chilling effect 
in some areas.  After a grenade was tossed into a PA leader's shop 
and several supporters were beaten in Bener Meriah, Party leaders 
there ceased public campaigns and stopped sleeping in their own 
homes to protect themselves from attacks.  PA leaders and some 
observers believed that elements of the military were responsible 
for the grenade and arson attacks.  Our sources claim that some 
military personnel implicated in the attacks have been arrested, an 
allegation which we have not been able to substantiate. 
 
¶11. (SBU) All around the province, PA leaders reported numerous 
cases of intimidation and threats. In several districts PA 
complained that fully armed members of the military told locals that 
anyone who attended "GAM rallies" would face consequences. 
According to a respected human rights NGO, a radio station in 
Lhokseumawe has broadcast anti-PA statements and that ex-militia 
working with TNI are making statements in the press against voting 
for "separatist parties".  A senior political leader in West Aceh 
told Medan that members of the military with video cameras have gone 
house to house in pro-PA villages to intimidate people against 
voting for PA.  Elsewhere, there are numerous reports of people 
dressed in black wandering around at night, threatening people 
thought to be PA supporters. 
 
¶12. (SBU) In the face of open and widespread campaign abuses, 
PANWASLU - the government agency charged with enforcing campaign 
regulations - has been an abject failure.  Virtually all political 
parties, the police and military have complained to mission election 
observers about PANWASLU's ineffectiveness.  In several districts 
PANWASLU officials denied having received any actionable complaints, 
others reported receiving only a handful.  One frustrated police 
chief told Medan that his men had attempted to report a serious 
violation to PANWASLU and had even offered to be witnesses and 
presented electronic evidence of the violation.  The report, he 
said, went nowhere.  Several observers told Medan that they believe 
that unethical political parties had seen PANWASLU's ineffectiveness 
and had chosen to flout campaign regulations. 
 
¶13. (SBU) PANWASLU's defenders point out that the organization is 
understaffed and underfunded.  The current election law is also 
partly to blame.  Not only does the law establish onerous reporting 
and evidentiary requirements to establish possible violations, but 
unlike the previous law, did not authorize police and prosecutor's 
office to have formal positions in the organization. This limits the 
 
JAKARTA 00000645  003 OF 003 
 
 
organization's ability to investigate and prosecute violations as 
well as withstand intimidation. 
 
¶14. (SBU) In contrast with PANWASLU's weak performance, the police, 
some senior local officials, and party leaders have taken proactive 
steps to ensure that the election comes off peacefully.  On 
instruction from the provincial police chief, local police have 
organized ongoing forums which bringing together party 
representatives for dialogue.  In several regencies, the local 
government has also issued statements reminding residents against 
responding to provocations and to elect qualified candidates.  To 
avoid escalating tensions and violence, top PA leaders have 
instructed members to avoid conflict.  As a result, most Acehnese 
believe that the election will come off peacefully and that the 
result will eventually be accepted.  Some local government and 
security officials anticipate that there may be local outbreaks of 
violence such as those which occurred in the 2006 elections, but 
none believe that they will spread or significantly disrupt the 
election. 
 
HEFFERN