VZCZCXRO3615
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0240/01 1201615
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301615Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3643
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000240 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: IN GUINEA'S FOREST REGION, CITIZENS SUPPORT DADIS 
AND A LONG TRANSITION 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  A recent trip to Guinea's Forest Region, 
CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara's natal home, suggests 
that there is significant popular support for the military 
junta.  Forest residents generally viewed the CNDD's 
activities since the coup in a favorable light.  Many of them 
also felt that a longer transition period is not only 
prudent, but necessary.  While these comments may be viewed 
as biased coming from a region that stands to benefit from 
Dadis' rise to power, the fact that they echo comments heard 
elsewhere lends credibility.  Increasingly, many Guineans 
seem to be in favor of a prolonged military transition.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U) Embassy officers recently traveled to the Forest 
Region where they met with youth and civil society leaders in 
the key population centers of Kissidougou, Gueckedou, and 
N'Zerekore.  The region is home to CNDD President Moussa 
Dadis Camara.  The Kissidougou meeting attracted 34 
participants of all ages, including local government 
officials.  Only three of the participants were women.  In 
Gueckedou, Embassy officers met with eight men and two women 
of varied ages.  Only two representatives showed up for the 
meeting in N'Zerekore, one young man and one young woman. 
 
------------------ 
CNDD INSPIRES HOPE 
------------------ 
 
¶3.  (SBU) In general, meeting participants across the board 
were enthusiastic about Dadis and his administration. 
Citizens in Kissidougou expressed hope for the transition 
process and praised the CNDD for its efforts to combat 
corruption.  They reported seeing less crime since the coup, 
which they attributed to a heightened fear of the 
"consequences."  Participants also said that they trust Dadis 
and believe he will hold elections as promised.  However, 
some of the older citizens were less optimistic.  One man 
stated "even if we gave the CNDD ten years, if Guineans are 
not ready for change, it won't happen." 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The Gueckedou group also noted improvements in the 
security situation, which they attributed to the CNDD.  They 
commented on reduced incidents of banditry and said that 
criminals are being more cautious because they are seeing 
arrests and penalties.  One man interjected "even the smokers 
are hiding now." 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The two youth representatives in N'Zerekore also 
expressed support for Dadis and the CNDD, a sentiment that 
they said many of their fellow citizens share.  They noted 
the ravaging effects of civil war that still plague their 
neighbors across the border and said that many people believe 
only the military can prevent such destruction in Guinea. 
"Only the army can save the people of Guinea," one said. 
 
--------------------------------- 
PROLONGED TRANSITION IS NECESSARY 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) On the issue of transition, most everyone agreed 
that a longer transition period is more prudent than a 
shorter one.  In Kissidougou, citizens said they are willing 
to wait for elections in order to give the CNDD time to 
"clean house."  They said that if donors push too hard for 
elections too fast, there will be mass confusion and members 
of the old guard will reclaim power.  One person commented 
"the CNDD cannot do everything in one year." 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Gueckedou citizens described the CNDD's mission as 
one of "paving the road" for the future.  They want the CNDD 
to address issues such as constitutional reform, corruption, 
and drug trafficking.  They said that if Dadis does not 
accomplish this objective, people will lose hope and the 
country will not evolve.  However, citizens also did not want 
to see Dadis in power for 25 years.  They said that the CNDD 
needs to identify its key priorities and leave the rest for a 
new government.  Many felt that the most important issue is 
to revise the constitution and then move forward with 
elections.  Participants also said that donors should be 
helping Guinea get back on track. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Sentiments were much the same in N'Zerekore.  Both 
participants advocated for a longer transition, anticipating 
elections in 2010.  They argued that time is needed to 
educate Guinea's largely illiterate population, otherwise the 
elections will fail.  With respect to the CNDD, they referred 
to a need to "sweep" out the problems of past regimes in 
order to let a fresh government start with a clean slate. 
 
CONAKRY 00000240  002 OF 002 
 
 
They estimated that two to three years would be a reasonable 
timeframe for the transition. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶9.  (SBU) While it is not necessarily a surprise that Dadis 
would seem to have significant support in his home region, 
due to likely expectations of favortism from a "compatriot," 
Embassy is hearing more and more that Guineans across the 
country are generally supportive of the CNDD.  Opinions about 
Dadis seem to be more subject to change, but citizens tend to 
be in favor of a prolonged military transition.  In the 
interior, most people's exposure to political happenings in 
Conakry is limited to national television, which routinely 
broadcasts what is now commonly called "the Dadis show." 
Contacts have commented that "the Dadis Show" is quite 
popular because it is not only entertaining, it demonstrates 
that the Guinean Government is tackling longstanding 
problems.  The recent trip into the Forest Region illustrates 
some of the general population's increasingly typical 
reactions to the CNDD.  Forest citizens are in no hurry to 
rush towards elections and believe that a longer transition 
period is more realistic.  There is also a tangible sense of 
optimism, which is directly linked to the CNDD's rise to 
power.  END COMMENT. 
RASPOLIC