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RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHCH #0302/01 1040603
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 140603Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY CHISINAU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7887
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000302 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/UMB 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM MD
SUBJECT:  MOLDOVA FACING CHALLENGES TO INSTALLING A 
NEW GOVERNMENT Q April 13 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified.  Please Protect 
Accordingly. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  With the immediate threat of 
street violence diminished, Moldova continues to 
face a political crisis which will preserve a state 
of uncertainty until the vote recount is finished, 
the Parliament meets and a new President and 
Cabinet is put in place.  Parliament faces 
significant obstacles even before the selection of 
a new President.  A temporary location must be 
found for the body to hold its plenary session. 
Once the Parliament convenes, the lack of three- 
fifths majority will make it difficult for the 
Party of Communists (PCRM) to elect its candidate 
for President.  The extreme political polarization 
resulting from the demonstrations and violence will 
make it difficult for PCRM and opposition to 
cooperate.  If a compromise presidential candidate 
is not selected within three tries, repeat 
elections will be necessary.  Meanwhile, in 
Tiraspol the Transnistrian authorities are pointing 
to the events as proof of why they cannot reach a 
settlement with Moldova.       End Summary. 
 
The New Parliament Faces Extreme Challenges 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) In a major concession to opposition 
demands, President Voronin has ordered a recount 
and examination of voter lists.  This will delay 
for some days the ability of the newly-elected 
parliament to convene.  With the parliament 
building in need of massive repair, the legislative 
body will have to find another location for its 
inaugural sessions.   A parliamentary session could 
be held in the Presidency, where previous such 
meetings occurred, or in some other government 
building.  Another obstacle to reestablishing the 
parliament's full functionality will be locating 
office space and computers for Members of 
Parliament (MPs) and their staff so that real work 
could recommence.  With much of the official 
archives destroyed in the fires that engulfed the 
bottom floors of the Parliament, we presume that 
most original copies of legislation were burned. 
According to Moldovan law, there must be originals 
of the bills to solve discrepancies between 
electronic versions. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The next task for the parliament will be 
the election of a Speaker.  The PCRM has enough 
votes to elect the Speaker of its choice, as 52 out 
of 101 are needed, and the party earned 60 seats. 
The party could take this opportunity to make a 
conciliatory move toward the opposition MPs and 
offer a candidate who would appease, rather than 
ostracize, the opposition.  There have been 
repeated suggestions that Voronin himself might be 
interested in this position, but, it is too early 
to say. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The selection of a new president will be 
the biggest challenge for the new parliament. 
First, there is an internal process within the PCRM 
to determine who they will nominate.   With 60 
seats under PCRM control and 61 seats needed, this 
process will reveal the strength of opposition 
conviction, or Voronin's success in persuading one 
opposition parliamentarian to join his ranks.  As 
the opposition as whole will not support a PCRM 
candidate, the task of gaining one additional vote 
will likely be done very privately in meetings with 
individual MPs.  Cynical observers in Chisinau 
speak of offers of dachas, large sums of cash, or 
high-ranking future post to help sway the one 
essential parliamentarian.  The consistently-cited 
proof that even radical anti-Communists can be 
bought is the case of Iurie Rosca, once the young, 
flaming anti-Communist leader of the Popular Front, 
and now the Deputy Speaker of Parliament. 
 
The Opposition is Weak but Still a Force 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The opposition's chance to ride the wave 
of popular support after questionable elections is 
waning.   To the extent that their names have been 
 
CHISINAU 00000302  002 OF 002 
 
 
linked with the violence, a drop in popularity 
resulted.  The degree of leadership among the 
three, and their chances to present a unified 
position in parliament, is still questionable. 
The opposition failed to jointly take advantage of 
the momentum of last week's demonstrations on the 
main square, though they successfully demonstrated 
strength and organizational skills in the 
demonstration on Sunday April 12.  By gathering a 
large crowd and maintaining order, the opposition 
showed that they have support and are capable of 
peaceful demonstration.   Their focus on the theme 
of human rights for the detainees and Voronin's 
"reign of terror" gives some moral high ground and 
captures the national revulsion at use of excessive 
force against the detainees. 
 
Voronin's Search for Culprits 
----------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Voronin has not yet finished his search 
for those responsible for last week's violent 
protests.  On April 13, Voronin gathered a group of 
representatives from the Supreme Security Council, 
the Prosecutor General, Interior Ministry, Security 
and Intelligence Service, and the Justice Ministry 
to hear reports on the violent demonstrations that 
took place early last week.  Voronin said that he 
still intended to identify the organizers and those 
active in starting the violent street riots.  He 
emphasized that those responsible were attempting 
to thwart Moldovan democratic development and 
efforts at European integration. 
 
Transnistria Reacts to Promote its Own Independence 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶7. (SBU) The Transnistrian reaction was prompt and 
predictable.  They made an initial request to 
Russia to increase the size of its peacekeeping 
force from 400 to 2,700 and add a helicopter unit. 
Since then, several official statements have hit on 
the key political themes:  In official statements 
and press interviews "Foreign Minister" Yastrebchak 
and his Deputy Simonenko have described the events 
as pro-Romanian and anti-Russian and stressed that 
reintegration with Moldova will never happen.  The 
Transnistrians have suggested that sooner or later 
Moldova will unite with Romania.  Simonenko also 
referred to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's 
recent statement that in case Moldova loses its 
identity, Transnistrians will have the right to 
choose their own future.  The Moldovan election and 
Voronin's allegations of Romanian involvement have 
given "President" Smirnov more ammunition against 
reintegration and further diminished chances for 
settlement.  Nonetheless, the sides agreed at the 
recent 2-plus-1 meeting to hold 5-plus-2 talks 
before the end of June.  It remains to be seen 
whether the group will indeed convene by this date. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Post-electoral instability and political 
uncertainty will remain a reality until the new 
government is in place, but the chances of renewed 
street violence are now slim, though continued 
demonstrations cannot be ruled out should the 
crisis continue for weeks without resolution. 
Though there is general revulsion about the reports 
of use of torture against the student detainees, 
the GOM has successfully reasserted its control. 
The accusations and counter-accusations have 
hardened positions, which will make cooperation in 
the parliament difficult, once the legislative body 
actually convenes.  The Transnistrians are taking 
advantage of the situation to harden their position 
and reassert their right to be recognized as an 
independent entity. 
 
CHAUDHRY