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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000116 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KIRF OTRA IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: BJP SITTING PRETTY IN KARNATAKA 
 
REF: A) 08 CHENNAI 00192 B) 08 CHENNAI 00416, C) CHENNAI 00025, D) 
08 CHENNAI 350 
 
CHENNAI 00000116  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. Summary: On April 23 voters in seventeen districts of the 
southern state of Karnataka will cast their votes in the state's 
first phase of voting in India's national elections.  The Bharatiya 
Janata Party (BJP) did exceptionally well in 2004, winning eighteen 
seats.  Congress came in second with a total of eight seats while 
the regional party Janata Dal (Secular) (JDS) took two. The general 
consensus in Bangalore is that the BJP is again in a strong 
position, and is expected to win at least fourteen of the twenty 
eight seats up for grabs.  While most felt Congress' chances of 
defeating the BJP in the state are relatively weak, attacks on local 
churches in Mangalore and pub goers by Hindu extremists have helped 
consolidate the Muslim and Christian vote behind the party.  As a 
result, observers feel they have a reasonable chance of maintaining 
the eight seats they currently hold. While our contacts confirmed 
that the tacit understanding between the JDS and Congress would 
enable them to garner additional votes, the majority agreed that 
their inability to put together a strong unified front, coupled with 
the BJP's extensive financial network would pave the way for another 
BJP victory in Karnataka.End Summary 
 
 
BJP sits pretty 
--------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) We traveled to Karnataka in the lead-up to the first phase 
of voting, where seventeen districts are scheduled to cast their 
votes on April 23.  We met with politicians, journalists and 
business contacts all of whom predicted that the BJP will win around 
half the twenty eight parliamentary seats from Karnataka.  For the 
most part, our interlocutors felt that caste will be a critical 
factor.  According to the editor of a local Kannada daily, the BJP 
will retain its hold on the two regions primarily comprised of 
members of the Lingayat, Madiga and Oddar castes which have 
historically supported the BJP. He predicted the BJP would win all 
eleven seats in districts where these three castes dominate the 
parliamentary constituencies.  In addition, the BJP has successfully 
shored up support in areas where they have not typically fared well 
by engineering defections from opposition Congress and JDS members 
According to the editor the defections will enable  BJP to garner 
enough votes to win an additional four or five seats. 
 
Hindu extremists affect BJP chances along the coast 
--------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Highly-publicized attacks on Christian churches and young 
pub goers by Hindu extremist groups have sparked fear amongst 
minorities.  Opposition party leaders play on these fears by 
comparing the Hindu nationalists to the Taliban in Pakistan and 
Afghanistan (refs C and  D).  Roshen Baig, a member of the Karnataka 
State Assembly and a Congress party Muslim leader, said that this 
fear had consolidated the Muslim and Christian vote behind the 
Congress party.  According to Baig "the Muslim community does not 
want a Talibanization of Karnataka.  The youth is also tired of the 
radical Hindus; this will play out at the polls."  Baig expects the 
party to win three seats in Bangalore on account of the increased 
minority vote.  A local political commentator concurred with Roshen 
Baig's analysis on the minority vote.  He believes that this 
consolidation will cost the BJP a couple of seats. 
 
¶4. (U) Secular Hindu voters in urban areas will choose Congress 
according to a majority of our interlocutors.  Attacks on pub goers 
in Mangalore and parts of Bangalore have shaken their confidence in 
the BJP, forcing them to gravitate back to Congress according to the 
former editor of the Economic Times. In the absence of an inspiring 
prime ministerial candidate, he said, secular Hindus will stay home 
or vote for Congress. 
 
Tacit understanding between Congress and JDS 
 
CHENNAI 00000116  002 OF 002 
 
 
--------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) Our interlocutors agreed that there exists a tacit 
understanding between Congress and JDS.  JDS's decision to contest 
twenty one seats rather than all twenty eight seats in the state was 
cited as primary evidence of the agreement.  The JDS has not fielded 
a candidate where former Congress Chief Minister Bangarappa is 
running against Karnataka Chief Minister B.S. Yeddyurappa's son. 
Similarly, in Bangalore, Congress is giving no real support to its 
marginal candidate standing against former JDS Chief Minister H.D. 
Kumaraswamy.  Congress and JDS are strong in both constituencies and 
could harm each other's prospects if they fielded strong candidates 
against each other. 
 
¶6. (SBU) This tacit understanding, however, is far from perfect. 
Roshen Baig cites a Bangalore constituency where Congress is running 
a strong candidate against the BJP.  The JDS's Muslim candidate 
appears to have adopted for a low key approach, presumably ceding to 
the Congress.  But his workers remain active in seeking support at 
mosques, which Baig worries will split the Muslim vote.  Baig 
believes campaigning by the JDS candidate's workers will nix the 
Congress candidate's chances. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The BJP also has a huge financial advantage, due to its 
ties to the state's influential mining industry.  Many observers 
pointed to the recent incident in Bellary district where the 
Karnataka election commission seized over three million dollars from 
a BJP supporter's residence and vehicle. A local political analyst 
explained that these funds are ordinarily used to pay the parties' 
volunteers, and to buy favors, such as food, clothing and alcohol, 
to distribute to voters.  He added that while caste plays a critical 
role in election, candidates are also able to build their following 
by buying votes. He stated that cost of one vote had now increased 
from ten dollars to approximately twenty dollars.  Our contacts 
agreed that the BJP's ongoing relationship with the local mine 
owners has provided them with the necessary financial clout to 
provide more favors to voters thus expanding their reach within 
Karnataka.  A correspondent with The Hindu told post that neither 
Congress nor the JDS can compete with this financial advantage. 
 
BJP state government's fate depends on national elections 
--------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU)Comment: A strong showing in Karnatka's Lok Sabha elections 
would be another step in the BJP's effort to establish its first 
reliable foothold in South India.  It has done so largely through a 
sustained effort to build the party from the grassroots that has 
steadily increased its share of the vote over time.  Some of its 
recent success stems from factors that might not always favor the 
BJP like the huge cash advantage it has due to its relationship with 
the mining industry and the inability on Congress and JDS to form an 
alliance.   But the long term outlook for the BJP in Karnataka will 
only be brighter should the party have another strong performance in 
these elections. 
End comment. 
 
SIMKIN