VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHEG #0659/01 1060643
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 160643Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2224
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
INFO RUEHII/VIENNA IAEA POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHUNV/USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA PRIORITY 0141

UNCLAS CAIRO 000659 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
ISN FOR HUMPHREY, NEA/ELA FOR CANEDO, NEA/I FOR TAYLOR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KNNP PREL IS IR EG
SUBJECT: CODEL TAUSCHER APRIL 9 MEETING WITH THE EGYPTIAN 
COUNCIL ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS 
 
REF: CAIRO 618 
 
¶1. (SBU) Key Points: 
 
-- Egypt's leading thinkers on non-proliferation urged the 
U.S. to support the concept of a nuclear-free Middle East 
zone, as a way to get past the Israel-Iran stalemate. 
 
-- Egyptian Council on Foreign Affairs proposes adding a seat 
for an Arab representative to the 5 plus 1 talks with Iran. 
 
-- Egypt has joined New Zealand, Ireland, Sweden, South 
Africa, Brazil and Mexico in forming a "New Agenda 
Coalition," to prepare for the upcoming NPT revcon. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Comment: Egypt's leading thinkers on nuclear 
non-proliferation told Representative Tauscher and her 
delegation that the U.S.'s current focus on Iran is 
interpreted by many in the region as single-minded and 
unbalanced in the region. Their suggestion that the U.S. 
support a Nuclear-Free Middle East zone resolution at the 
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference would likely 
have a positive impact on our bilateral relationship with 
Egypt and other Arab moderate states, but would not, in 
itself, act to deter Iran. End comment. 
 
¶3. (SBU) On April 9, Representatives Ellen Tauscher (D-CA), 
Michael Turner (R-OH), Loretta Sanchez (D-CA), Trent Franks 
(R-AZ), and Parker Griffith (D-AL) met with Egypt's leading 
thinkers on non-proliferation at the Egyptian Council for 
Foreign Affairs (ECFA), including Ambassador Abdel Raouf el 
Reedy, former ambassador to the U.S., Ambassador Mohamed 
Shaker, former permanent representative to the IAEA, Dr. Ali 
Al Saeidi, former Minister of Electricity and Energy and 
current technical board member of the IAEA, and Ambassador 
Nabil Fahmy, ambassador to the U.S. between 2000-2008.  El 
Reedy and Al Saeidi hailed the U.S's renewed focus on nuclear 
non-proliferation and President Obama's speech calling for 
nuclear disarmament.  They predicted that the U.S.'s decision 
to engage Iran directly in the 5 plus 1 mechanism would move 
negotiations in the right direction.  El Reedy welcomed the 
nomination of Representative Tauscher as Undersecretary of 
State for Arms Control and International Security. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Congresswoman Tauscher thanked ECFA Chairman El 
Reedy for his hospitality and clarified that she was visiting 
the Middle East in her role as Representative and Chair of 
the House Armed Services subcommittee on strategic forces. 
She affirmed that nuclear non-proliferation and preventing 
Iran from becoming a nuclear state were urgent and 
non-partisan priorities for the U.S. Administration and 
Congress, and sought the ECFA's guidance on Iran strategy. 
El Reedy commented that resolving the Israeli-Palestinian 
conflict remained Egypt's paramount security concern, but 
agreed that Iran's nuclear ambitions were a pressing threat 
to Egypt and the entire region.  Emphasizing that President 
Mubarak introduced the idea of a nuclear weapons-free zone in 
the Middle East almost 20 years ago, El Reedy and Shaker 
linked progress on Iran to getting Israel to become party to 
the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) (reftel).  Discussing 
options for enhancing pressure on Iran, Shaker proposed that 
a representative of the Arab 
world join the 5 plus 1 process. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
GETTING PAST THE ISRAEL-IRAN STALEMATE 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Tauscher observed that Iran remains the world's 
primary proliferation threat, due to its support for 
terrorist groups, the development and dissemination of 
missile systems, and a history of non-compliance with the 
IAEA.  While underscoring that Egypt and the U.S. agree that 
Iran is a threat, Ambassador Fahmy clarified that the two 
countries disagree on the extent to which Israel's uncertain 
nuclear status is also a proliferation threat.  He said that 
as long as Israel is vague about whether it has a nuclear 
capability and refuses to join the NPT, it provides a cover 
for Iran's activities and threatens its Arab neighbors. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Fahmy reminded the congressional delegation that the 
U.S. was one of the co-sponsors (with Russia and the UK) of 
the "Nuclear Free Middle East Zone" resolution in the 1995 
NPT Review Conference (revcon).  He recommended that 
President Obama publically reaffirm U.S. support for the 
nuclear-free Middle East concept in order to move past the 
Israel-Iran stalemate, without recriminations, and without 
taking the pressure off Tehran (reftel). Fahmy suggested that 
the U.S. appoint a Sherpa soon, to discuss NPT implementation 
with regional actors in advance of the revcon.  Al Saeidi 
noted that U.S. support for a nuclear-free Middle East 
resolution at the next revcon would help Egypt foster a 
healthier and more conducive atmosphere in the Middle East, 
which would refocus the Arab world on the threat posed by 
Tehran, rather than on Tel Aviv.  Representative Loretta 
Sanchez (D-CA) agreed with Al Saeidi on the importance of 
shaping public opinion, especially in a region where U.S. 
policy is viewed as unbalanced and biased toward Israel. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Shaker said that regional leaders were eager to join 
the discussion on nonproliferation, and urged Tauscher to 
revive the UN Conference on Disarmament, which has been 
dormant for a decade. According to Shaker, Egypt has joined 
New Zealand, Ireland, Sweden, South Africa, Brazil and Mexico 
in forming a "New Agenda Coalition," to prepare for the 
upcoming NPT revcon. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Stressing his background as a nuclear physicist and 
current IAEA technical board member, Al Saeidi said that it 
was unlikely that Iran would reach the nuclear threshold 
within the next few years.  He said that the U.S.'s decision 
to engage Iran directly in the 5 plus 1 negotiations would 
push the negotiations forward more quickly as Iran would 
become more engaged.  He asked Tauscher to help the U.S. 
overcome its penchant for living "in a constant worst-case 
scenario" by working more closely with its allies on Iran 
strategy. 
 
¶9. (U) Codel Tauscher was unable to clear this message before 
departure. 
SCOBEY