VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #0470/01 1131849
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 231849Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3587
INFO RUCNMER/MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000470 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA ELECTIONS: RADICALS INVITE PRODIGAL 
CHILDREN HOME; PRO'S MICHETTI ANNOUNCES IN BA 
 
REF: A. BUENOS AIRES 0402 
     ¶B. BUENOS AIRES 0452 
     ¶C. BUENOS AIRES 0429 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Building on the positive public sentiments 
generated by the memorializing of the late President Raul 
Alfonsin (ref A), Argentina's once-dominant Radical Party 
(UCR) continued its gradual return to relevance with a 
successful national convention April 17-18 in Mar del Plata. 
The convention officially annulled the party's 
excommunication of Radicals who aligned with the Kirchner 
Victory Front in 2007, including Argentine VP Julio Cobos. 
Civic Coalition (CC) leader Elisa Carrio, a former UCR 
member, embraced Alfonsin's son Ricardo Alfonsin as the two 
parties prepared to run together in the June mid-terms.  In 
its stronghold of Buenos Aires city, the UCR-CC-Socialist 
coalition will face-off against a list headed by PRO 
(Republican Proposal) star and former Vice Mayor Gabriela 
Michetti, who moved off the fence April 20 by announcing she 
would resign her job as Mayor Mauricio Macri's deputy and 
head PRO's national deputy list in the city.  Current polls 
reportedly give Michetti a 10 or more point advantage over a 
CC-UCR ticket.  End Summary. 
 
The Alfonsin Effect 
------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Argentina's once-great party of the middle class, the 
Radical Civic Union (UCR), continued its slow return from the 
wreckage of the failed de la Rua presidency with a hopeful 
national convention April 17-18 in Mar del Plata.  The 
meeting built on commemorations of the late Raul Alfonsin, 
whose March 31 death provoked a non-partisan upwelling of 
national pride in Argentina's democracy (ref A).  Convention 
speakers contrasted Alfonsin's role in restoring democracy 
and the UCR's emphasis on governing institutions with what 
they alleged to be political aggrandizement and dishonesty 
under the Peronist administrations of President Cristina 
Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) and former President Nestor 
Kirchner. 
 
¶3. (U) The focus of the UCR Convention was on the 
reintegration of strayed Radicals, including Vice President 
Julio Cobos (previously banned "for life" by the party for 
running alongside CFK as part of the Victory Front in 2007). 
Cobos was invited to rejoin the party when he ceases to be 
Vice President under CFK.  Cobos, who had planned to attend 
the convention, announced in the days leading up to it that 
he would not attend because he would be serving as acting 
President while President Kirchner was attending the Summit 
of the Americas. 
 
¶4. (U) Also coming home, though she did not rejoin the party, 
was Civic Coalition (CC) leader and former Radical Elisa 
Carrio.  Carrio, the runner-up to CFK in the 2007 
presidential contest, was given a prominent speaking role at 
the convention.  Her praise for the values and policies 
represented by the UCR won applause, as did her embrace of 
Raul Alfonsin's son Ricardo at the close of the convention. 
Socialist Party leader Ruben Giustiniani also attended.  His 
party represents the third piece of the left-of-center 
alliance taking shape for the June 2009 mid-terms along with 
the CC and the UCR, which varies per district. 
 
Candidate Lists 
--------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Not attending the convention was the CC's top 
candidate for national deputy in the Province of Buenos Aires 
(PBA), Margarita Stolbizer.  (Note: She said she did not 
attend because she was not invited; the UCR leadership told 
the press no slight was intended in this. End Note.)  A UCR 
officer confirmed to PolOff April 21 that the parties have 
agreed that Stolbizer will lead their combined ticket in PBA, 
with Ricardo Alfonsin number two (despite the fact that "he 
is now the more popular").  Some polls, the UCR officer said, 
were showing close to a "three-way tie" in PBA among the 
tickets expected to be headed by Nestor Kirchner-Daniel 
Scioli, Francisco De Narvaez-Felipe Sola, and 
Stolbizer-Alfonsin, though the Stolbizer-Alfonsin ticket was 
in third place (see Ref B). (Note: Other polls show the 
CC-UCR ticket trailing the other two by as many as ten or 
twelve points. End Note.) 
 
¶6. (U) For the city of Buenos Aires, UCR participants, 
including Alfonsin, pressed Carrio to lead the CC-Radical 
ticket against the strong PRO and dissident Peronist slate 
thought likely to be led by popular PRO Vice Mayor Gabriela 
Michetti (plans confirmed on April 20, see para 7).  Carrio 
 
stuck to her guns, saying that former Central Bank head 
Alfonso Prat-Gay would head the ticket in Buenos Aires, while 
repeating her willingness to run as second on the list, which 
she expressed publicly shortly before the convention.  On 
April 21 she announced she would take third place, behind 
Prat-Gay and UCR representative Ricardo Gil Lavedra.  Her 
original position had been not to run for Congress at all, 
then to let herself appear "seventh or eighth". 
 
Michetti Takes the Plunge 
------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) Ending nearly ten months of speculation and public 
tribulations, Buenos Aires Vice Mayor Gabriela Michetti on 
April 20 resigned her position and announced she would head 
the PRO ticket for Congress in BA city.  Resignation was not 
a requirement to her appearing on the candidate slate for the 
mid-terms, but Michetti said she wanted to contrast the PRO's 
approach to elections with that of the ruling Peronists, 
particularly their decision to run what the press and 
opposition call "testimonial" candidates (Note: CFK has 
objected to the term, but it has stuck.  Per ref C, it refers 
to elected officials whose names will appear as candidates on 
ballots to boost their party ticket's vote tallies but who 
have made clear they will not give up their executive branch 
positions to take their legislative seats if elected, turning 
the seats over to alternates.  End Note).  Michetti also said 
it had become too difficult for the city to work with the 
national government because of political rivalries and that 
she did not want to exacerbate the problem by acting as a 
congressional candidate and vice mayor.  According to press 
reports, Michetti is leading in current polls by 10 percent 
or more over a CC-UCR ticket. 
 
Comment: Inching Back into the Fray 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) The UCR is reemerging as a credible organization in 
Argentine politics, but still one with only a modest popular 
following.  Its worthy traditions of government investment in 
education and governing institutions have been shining more 
brightly for Argentines as they recall the promise of Raul 
Alfonsin's presidency and as more and more of them express 
concerns about the Kirchners' governing style.  Indeed, the 
UCR is one of the few parties in Argentina that honors some 
of the institutional formalities of a party by holding 
primaries and conventions, electing party authorities, etc. 
It also nominally retains a nationwide structure.  The UCR 
was wise to strike an alliance with the CC and the Socialists 
for this year's mid-term elections.  In 2011, the UCR could 
conceivably run behind the man who today is Argentina's most 
popular politician, Vice President Julio Cobos.  Whether the 
Radicals' alliance with the CC and the Socialists would hold 
up in that case will be a major question, but it is one that 
does not have to be answered until after the mid-terms. 
WAYNE