VZCZCXYZ0001
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #0429/01 0992206
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 092206Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3527
INFO RUCNMER/MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 000429 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2039 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA:  TOP CANDIDATES IN KEY LEGISLATIVE 
BATTLEGROUND OF BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE 
 
REF: A. BUENOS AIRES 347 
     ¶B. BUENOS AIRES 360 AND PREVIOUS 
     ¶C. BUENOS AIRES 144 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Wayne for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  Former president Nestor Kirchner has once 
again upset the political apple cart, this time by floating 
the idea that he and the current governor of Buenos Aires 
province, Daniel Scioli, will head the Victory Front (FpV) 
slate of candidates for national deputies from the province 
of Buenos Aires in the June 28 mid-term congressional 
elections.  Scioli's ""candidacy"" would merely be intended to 
gain votes for the FpV slate -- he is not expected to give up 
his governorship midway through his term in order to join the 
Chamber of Deputies.  He would take leave from his 
parliamentary position in order to continue governing the 
province, leaving his seat to be filled by an alternate. 
 
¶2. (C) Buenos Aires province, representing 37.1 percent of 
the national vote, is ""the mother of all battles"" in 
Argentina's legislative race to be held June 28 (ref A).  As 
candidacies have not yet been formally registered -- the 
deadline is May 9 -- speculation is intense about who will 
run on the principal party slates.  Peronist dissident 
Francisco de Narvaez will lead the center-right triple 
alliance that includes fellow dissident Felipe Sola and the 
backing of Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio Macri of Republican 
Proposal (PRO).  Civic Coalition (CC) leader Elisa Carrio 
announced she will not run for Congress and plans to campaign 
in Buenos Aires province for candidate Margarita Stolbizer, 
who will head the CC's anticipated joint slate with the 
Radical Party (UCR).  The Kirchners' surprise of moving up 
the legislative elections by four months has almost certainly 
put pressure on a divided opposition (ref B) but is also 
widely attributed to the Kirchners' recognition of declining 
public support in the face of a sagging economy and rising 
crime.  Opposition sectors are looking to convince the key 
electoral demographic of Buenos Aires province that they are 
a better option for dealing with the crime surge and an 
economic downturn, even while the Casa Rosada remains in FpV 
hands.  End Summary. 
 
Buenos Aires Province: The Plum Race 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) The electoral plum in the June 28 congressional 
elections is Buenos Aires province.  The province, which 
represents 37.1 percent of the national vote, will elect 35 
national deputies, 20 of whom are currently members of the 
Kirchner-allied Victory Front (FpV) and one who is a Kirchner 
ally.  Throughout the nation, a total of 127 deputies will be 
elected.  Congressional deputies are voted by party lists to 
represent their provinces at-large.  Buenos Aires province, 
particularly the poor and working class suburbs surrounding 
the federal capital, has been a Peronist stronghold for the 
last 20 years and is key to the Kirchners' electoral success 
nationwide.  As congressional elections have been moved up by 
four months (ref B), parties are scurrying to determine slate 
compositions and order of candidates.  Although candidacies 
have yet to be formally registered -- the deadline is May 9 
-- speculation is intense about who will head the principal 
party slates. 
 
Will Nestor and/or Scioli Head the FpV Slate? 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) While it has long been expected that former 
President Nestor Kirchner (NK), president of the Peronist 
Party (PJ) and husband of current president Cristina 
Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK), will head the FPV slate in 
Buenos Aires province, speculation has increased recently on 
whether he would press Buenos Aires Governor Daniel Scioli 
into joining him at the top of the slate.  Scioli served as 
NK's vice-president 2003-07 and in 2007 won more votes in 
Buenos Aires province for governor than CFK did for 
president.  Polls show that the affable Scioli remains more 
popular than either of the Kirchners, and he is considered a 
contender for the 2011 presidential race. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Despite NK's penchant for keeping people guessing, 
he has been working the campaign trail like a candidate, with 
a series of appearances in locations throughout the province. 
 Newspapers report that NK is seeking to change (or has 
already changed) his residency from the province of Santa 
Cruz (where he was governor before becoming president) to 
Buenos Aires province to meet residency requirements for 
running in Buenos Aires.  (Note:  While such a change in 
residency would not appear to meet the Constitution's 
five-year residency requirement, electoral authorities have 
 
showed themselves to be very flexible in interpreting the 
rules and allowing candidacies.) 
 
¶6. (C) NK, who is intent on a strong FPV electoral victory, 
may yet decide not to run and let Scioli lead the ticket -- 
particularly if his private polls suggest an NK-led ticket 
would lose, even by a small margin.  Should Scioli win a seat 
in Congress, he could take a leave of absence to return to 
his gubernatorial duties.  Some opposition leaders have 
criticized this scenario, saying it is cynical and harmful to 
the integrity of the electoral process to run for office 
without any intention of serving.  Media reported April 9, 
however, that NK intends to ask all Kirchner-allied mayors 
throughout the province to replicate the Scioli move by 
heading their slates of candidates for city council. 
 
NK is Ahead in the Polls, but Declining 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Recent polls vary widely, with two lesser-known 
polls in March showing NK with a 20-point lead over his 
opponents while leading daily ""La Nacion"" reported him tied 
with Peronist dissident Francisco De Narvaez. ""Clarin"" on 
March 22 showed NK receiving 19.9% to De Narvaez's 18.5% and 
the Civic Coalition (CC) candidate Margarita Stolbizer's 
11.3%.  Many observers, however, point out that NK's trend 
lines are declining while De Narvaez and Stolbizer are 
rising. 
 
De Narvaez Heads the Triple Alliance Slate 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶8. (C) Francisco de Narvaez is a wealthy entrepreneur and 
member of Congress whose business empire includes significant 
media outlets.  In 2007, he made an impressive showing in the 
gubernatorial race in Buenos Aires province, winning 15% of 
the votes after Scioli and Stolbizer.  (De Narvaez ran as an 
independent without a presidential candidate at the top of 
his ticket.)  Former Kirchner-allied Governor Felipe Sola, 
now a member of the Chamber of Deputies with presidential 
aspirations, surprised many observers by agreeing to take the 
number two spot on the ticket with De Narvaez.  Together they 
had previously announced with Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio 
Macri of Republican Proposal (PRO) a center-right alliance 
commonly referred to as the ""dissident Peronists,"" aimed 
squarely at defeating the governing Kirchnerist coalition. 
All three have higher political ambitions (ref C); Sola and 
Macri hope to be President while the Colombian-born De 
Narvaez aims for the Buenos Aires governorship (De Narvaez's 
foreign birth makes him ineligible to be President, per the 
Constitution).  In recent weeks, the press has played up 
tension among them, but Macri recently told the Ambassador he 
is confident that the dissident Peronists will defeat the 
Kirchner slate in the province or come close enough so that 
the results leave the Kirchners without a majority in 
Congress. 
 
Civic Coalition's Carrio Backs Out 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Although not running as a candidate herself in 
Buenos Aires province, CC party leader Elisa Carrio (who 
finished second in the 2007 presidential election) is 
campaigning for CC leader in Buenos Aires province Margarita 
Stolbizer, who is negotiating to head a combined slate of CC, 
UCR and Socialist candidates for the Chamber of Deputies.  In 
the 2007 gubernatorial race, Stolbizer received 17% of the 
votes, placing second behind Scioli. 
 
Alfonsin's Son a Possible UCR Candidate 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) Despite press reports over the April 4-5 weekend of 
shaky relations between the CC and the UCR following former 
UCR President Raul Alfonsin's death on March 31, the parties 
appear to be resolving their differences.  Shortly after 
Alfonsin's death, some UCR sectors were calling for 
Alfonsin's son, Ricardo, to head a single UCR ballot in the 
province.  Nonetheless, the CC and UCR now appear to be 
considering Ricardo for the slate's number two position 
should they agree to present a united slate, according to 
recent press reports.  Both UCR and CC leaders appear 
supportive of Ricardo's candidacy, hoping that his father's 
popularity will improve their electoral chances in June. 
 
What Matters to Voters 
---------------------- 
 
¶11. (C) Opposition candidates are focusing their campaigning 
on crime, security, and unemployment, likely to be voters' 
 
top concerns.  Alberto Fernandez, former Cabinet Chief of 
CFK, told the Ambassador in late March that polls taken in 
Buenos Aires province show the number one concern to be crime 
and security, and this will be the top issue on peoples' 
minds.  He said Kirchner would try to add ""governability"" to 
the mix, arguing that if his slate loses no one else can lead 
Argentines through the economic crisis. Most analysts agree 
that crime and economic concerns, particularly unemployment, 
are on the top of the list as the impact of a deepening 
economic downturn spreads to formal and informal sector 
employment. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12. (C) As post has noted (reftels), the June 28 mid-term 
elections may determine whether CFK will enjoy majority 
support in Congress for the remainder of her presidential 
term through 2011, and they are also being viewed as a 
harbinger of the 2011 presidential race.  Many observers 
believe the Kirchners have upped the stakes.  Because of the 
divided field and the complicated formula for apportioning 
seats, the Kirchners might have convincingly claimed victory 
on June 29 by winning only 35% of the vote -- enough, by some 
accounts, to retain a working majority in Congress.  But by 
proposing to put incumbent governors and mayors on the 
ballots in legislative races, the Kirchners and their allies 
may be turning the election into a plebiscite on their 
performance in office -- in which case, anything less than 
51% of the vote could be viewed as a popular rejection of the 
Kirchners. 
 
¶13. (C) Argentine politics is known for its 
personality-driven nature, but this electoral season has 
accentuated that attribute even more.  Daily press reports 
highlight differences and tension among key opposition 
candidates while portraying NK as the clever strategist 
fueling political jockeying within Peronist circles and 
without.  Moving up the legislative elections has almost 
certainly put pressure on an already divided opposition to 
present a unified front.  In addition, opposition sectors 
must convince a key electoral demographic in the province 
that they can effectively legislate during an economic 
downturn amidst fears of rising crime, and while the Casa 
Rosada remains in FpV hands. 
 
WAYNE