VZCZCXRO3183
PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDF RUEHDH RUEHIK RUEHKUK RUEHLZ RUEHROV
RUEHSR
DE RUEHLB #0493/01 1201203
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301203Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4789
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3716
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3913
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000493 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA 
ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S WARLICK 
P FOR DRUSSELL 
OVP FOR MUSTAFA 
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT 
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON 
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SIDON PARLIAMENTARY RACE SYMBOLIC FOR 
BOTH SIDES 
 
REF: A. BEIRUT 00485 
     ¶B. BEIRUT 00482 
     ¶C. BEIRUT 00200 
 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) Pollsters expect the March 14 Sidon parliamentary 
slate of Minister of Education Bahia Hariri and Prime 
Minister Fouad Siniora to defeat opposition candidate Ossama 
Saad, but the race between Siniora and Saad will be close. 
Although only one seat is being contested in Sidon, the 
victor will gain a much larger symbolic boost, as 2009 
elections are the first without a pre-arranged Bahia 
Hariri-Ossama Saad joint ticket in the district. 
Additionally, the city's status as the largest city in 
southern Lebanon and a key Sunni stronghold brings 
significance for both sides. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Several factors benefit each candidate in the race. 
Siniora is an inexperienced campaigner, but March 14 
financing will bolster his electoral efforts.  Siniora is a 
national political heavyweight, but Ossama Saad has a strong 
local following that will support him at the polls.  The 
opposition also will play up Siniora's links to his Christian 
March 14 allies, who are reportedly disliked in the Sunni 
city.  Security remains a key concern for election day, as 
Sidon is a transit point for all voters traveling to southern 
districts to cast their ballots.  End summary. 
 
NARROW VICTORY FOR FUTURE EXPECTED 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) March 14 contacts and independent pollsters expect 
the March 14 Sidon ticket of Minister of Education Bahia 
Hariri and Prime Minister Fouad Siniora to win over Nasserite 
Popular Organization (opposition) candidate Ossama Saad, but 
all expect a tight race.  The last elections held in Sidon, 
2005 municipal elections, saw a 61 percent voter turnout, and 
about the same (32-33,000 people) is expected for the 
upcoming parliamentary election.  Five to nine percent of 
registered voters in Sidon are naturalized Palestinians, 
according to the city's mayor. 
 
IMPORTANT FOR HARIRI... 
----------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Theories abound as to why, and how willingly, Prime 
Minister Siniora threw his hat into the 2009 electoral race 
in Sidon, but the tight electoral race country-wide makes 
both Sidon seats important to ensure March 14 victory. 
Siniora told the Ambassador April 27 he had not intended to 
run for parliament, but circumstances made it "imperative" 
that he do so (Ref A).  Contacts point to Future Party leader 
Saad Hariri's desire to reaffirm his role as the unrivaled 
leader of Lebanon's Sunnis, especially after giving 
concessions to his Sunni rivals in Tripoli -- the country's 
other Sunni stronghol -- by forming a combined list. 
Opposition mayorof Sidon Abed Bizri (a March 8 
"independent") noed that former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri 
lost Sidon's last municipal elections in 2005, despite 
"political activism" -- paying funds and providing services 
-- before the vote.  Sidon's residents see Siniora as a tool 
of Saad Hariri's, he said. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Other arguments center on Saad Hariri's intention to 
maintain "control" of Lebanon's premiership.  Contacts, 
including independent pollster Jawad Adra, speculate that 
Saad Hariri cannot become prime minister as long as he 
accuses Syria of killing his father.  A Future Party sweep in 
Sidon would reinforce Saad Hariri's authority over the Sunni 
community and possibly allow him to insist on who the next 
prime minister will be. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Additionally, some say a solid hold on the Sunni 
population could enable Hariri to wield an unofficial 
 
BEIRUT 00000493  002 OF 003 
 
 
sectarian "veto" in government decisions, in the event of an 
opposition majority.  Similar to the November 2006 decision 
of the Shia ministers to stage a walk-out of cabinet and 
freeze government operations, Hariri -- as reaffirmed 
representative of the Sunni sect -- could insist that 
government decisions have his stamp of approval. 
 
BUT SYMBOLIC FOR OPPOSITION AS WELL 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Internal Security Forces (ISF) Director General 
Ashraf Rifi argued that Sidon, as the northernmost point of 
Lebanon's mostly Shia south, also is a symbol for the 
opposition.  Although the city is predominantly Sunni, it is 
the largest city in southern Lebanon.  An opposition defeat 
there would weaken "the gate" that opens to the rest of its 
southern stronghold, he emphasized to Ambassador in a recent 
conversation. 
 
CAMPAIGN EXPERIENCE, STATURE, AND MONEY 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Fouad Siniora and Ossama Saad are both relative 
campaign rookies, but financial and electoral backing from 
the Hariri family will benefit the Prime Minister.  Siniora's 
stature as Prime Minister will work in his favor, but Ossama 
Saad has a strong local following that could make the battle 
difficult for Siniora.  Ossama Saad, who won seats in 2000 
and 2005 running virtually unopposed, is feeling nervous 
about his first "real" race for his seat, mayor and Ossama 
Saad advisor Bizri told us. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Ossama Saad has already sought to highlight 
Siniora's campaign mistakes.  Aware of Siniora's usual 
security precautions, Ossama Saad's backers in early April 
were waiting when Siniora's security detail -- including dogs 
-- entered a mosque in Sidon before a campaign event.  Ossama 
Saad provided the video to local news sources, who promptly 
broadcast Siniora's insult to Islam.  When Siniora's security 
team -- wiser to the media danger the dogs presented -- 
searched a Sidon church before a similar campaign event 
without the animals, Ossama Saad publicly noted the 
difference with which Siniora treated the two religions. 
 
PLAYING UP OR DOWN LINKS WITH MARCH 14 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) The opposition's political strategy will focus on 
the absence of ties between Siniora and his mother city and 
highlight Siniora's membership in the broader March 14 
alliance.  According to Mayor Bizri, some Sidon residents are 
still missing relatives kidnapped by March 14 Samir Geagea's 
Lebanese Forces (LF) during the civil war, so playing up 
links between Siniora and his Christian allies will benefit 
the opposition. 
 
¶11. (SBU) The opposition also will highlight the relative 
"accessibility" of the candidates, with Ossama Saad depicting 
himself as the most accessible to Sidon residents.  Fellow 
Future Party candidate Education Minister Bahia Hariri 
consistently has provided services in Sidon and was very 
active in maintaining calm in Ain-el-Hilweh during the 
January fighting in Gaza.  However, Siniora has admitted that 
he is starting from behind in terms of local outreach (Ref 
B).  He, however, is working to make up lost time and, in an 
April 27 meeting with the Ambassador, highlighted his public 
outreach in Sidon and enumerated his many development 
projects in the area. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Education Minister Bahia Hariri has told us her 
strategy will minimize links with March 14 and instead 
highlight Future Movement's, and her personal, involvement in 
the city.  Siniora, on the other hand, who was chosen as 
Prime Minister by a majority March 14 government, will have 
more difficulty distinguishing himself from the March 14 
coalition. 
 
BEIRUT 00000493  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
ROLE OF JEMAA ISLAMIYA 
---------------------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) Although Jemaa Islamiya (JI) in previous elections 
has allied with Hariri's Future Movement, the two sides thus 
far have failed to reach an agreement regarding 2009 
parliamentary elections.  According to Nader Hariri, Saad 
Hariri's cousin and advisor, JI insisted on two seats on 
Future's lists, and Future would only agree to one.  JI said 
publicly it would not oppose Hariri by running on Saad's list 
in Sidon, but the group could instruct followers to abstain 
from voting on June 7.   Contacts differ on how significant 
JI support in Sidon is for a Hariri-Siniora victory. 
 
CONCERNS ABOUT VIOLENCE 
----------------------- 
 
¶14. (SBU) ISF Director General Rifi expressed concern that 
Sidon's position as an entry to southern Lebanon could make 
it vulnerable to incidents of violence.  The city is a 
chokepoint for all Lebanese who will travel to southern 
districts to vote on June 7.  Additionally, an April 28 
UNIFIL assessment noted Siniora's candidacy in Sidon has 
angered Hizballah and the group had warned against "security 
repercussions."  Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who is from 
southern Lebanon, also worried that Siniora's candidacy would 
spark violence in the volatile area around Sidon (Ref C). 
However, Defense Minister Elias Murr told Ambassador April 30 
that he had redeployed all eleven LAF brigades in advance of 
the June 7 election, and had also redeployed the five LAF 
command battalions.  Murr also reported he had sent one 
brigade (headed by a Sunni) and two commando battalions as 
back-up for Sidon. 
 
SISON