VZCZCXRO7028
PP RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHSK RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHKB #0339/01 1131009
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 231009Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1103
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0105
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 3349
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/CDR USTRANSCOM SCOTT AFB IL PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 000339 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
TRANSCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR AF TU AM AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: SCENESESTTER FOR GEN MCNABB'S BAKU 
VISIT 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Your visit to Baku comes as President Aliyev has 
consolidated his domestic political position through a 
national referendum eliminating the two-term limit that would 
have forced him to leave office in 2013, while facing immense 
economic and foreign policy challenges.  The country has 
maintained macroeconomic and social stability in the face of 
the global financial crisis, but has taken insufficient steps 
to reform its economy and root out corruption in order to be 
sustainable over the longer haul.  The news that Azerbaijan's 
longtime ally Turkey is considering an agreement with Armenia 
to reopen borders, closed since 1993, forced Baku into a 
diplomatic scramble to ensure the protection of its equities 
on issues ranging from the  ongoing conflict over 
Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) to the future of westward transit of 
Caspian hydrocarbons.  However, through all of this the 
GOAJ's determination to contribute - and be seen to 
contribute - to the international effort in Afghanistan 
remains unchanged.  Also unchanged is our three-pronged 
(security, energy and political/economic reform) approach to 
the bilateral relationship.  End Summary. 
 
Security Cooperation 
-------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Your visit is an opportunity to solidify further 
Azerbaijan's cooperation as an essential leg of a surface 
transport corridor linking Europe and the CENTCOM operational 
theaters.  Baku has been a willing military participant in 
OEF and OIF and already allows virtually unlimited transit of 
its airspace and flexible refueling arrangements in support 
of operations.  In addition to the ongoing dialogue on the 
port of Baku, your visit is an opportunity to gauge 
Azerbaijan's level of willingness to allow wider access to 
Heydar Aliyev airport as the U.S. interagency continues to 
refine options.  Your visit will also be seen by the GOAJ 
through the prism of the Turkey-Armenia process.  Azerbaijan 
is keen to reassure itself that its interests and views are 
not being ignored, and your pursuit of Azerbaijan's 
cooperation will be taken as a reassuring signal that the 
partnership developed over the past several years has real 
value to the United States and will continue. 
 
¶3. (SBU) At the time of your last visit to Baku in 
mid-November 2008, Azerbaijan was withdrawing - at the 
request of the Iraqi government, which was then asking most 
of the smaller Coalition contingents to leave -  its 150-man 
contingent, that had been partnered with U.S. Marines 
guarding the Haditha dam.  Since then Azerbaijan has followed 
through on its commitment to double from 45 to 90 the size of 
its military contribution to Afghanistan, and is awaiting the 
Afghan government's response to its proposal of increasing 
investment and civilian contributions such as construction of 
schools and training Afghan diplomats as police at its 
academies. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Azerbaijan's strategic direction is deeply affected 
by its physical security environment.  Sandwiched between 
Russia and Iran, and with the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh 
conflict tying down 70percent of its ground forces along the 
Line of Cntact, Azerbaijan recognizes the need for strongallies.  The country has also increased its defense spending 
tenfold in five years and now spends nearly 2 billion dollars 
annually on defense.  Your GOAJ interlocutors will be 
unequivocal about Azerbaijan's orientation westward for its 
security needs, but they will just as forcefully argue that 
they need - and deserve - American weapons systems to build 
adequate defenses.  Azerbaijanis complain bitterly about the 
restrictions of section 907 of the Freedom Support Act, even 
when the waiver provision is invoked, because of the "parity" 
policy on assistance to Armenia and Azerbaijan observed by 
Congressional appropriators. 
 
 
Turkey and Nagorno-Karabakh 
--------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) GOAJ officials from the President down are 
unanimous that Nagorno-Karabakh is "issue number one" for the 
President's second term.  Beyond the obvious territorial and 
 
 
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* Missing Section 002 * 
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BAKU 00000339  003 OF 003 
 
 
Azerbaijani law sets for the adoption of referendum measures, 
the Government would have succeeded in any event.  The main 
opposition parties boycotted the October election and the 
referendum. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Many observers believed that once he was secure in 
another five year term, President Ilham Aliyev would make 
conciliatory gestures to the opposition and tack back on to a 
moderate course on democratization.  This has not yet 
happened to a large extent, but there are some minor and 
encouraging indicators.  One prominent imprisoned journalist 
benefited from an amnesty and was released, and the President 
recently intervened to overturn the convictions of two other 
journalists who had been sentenced to prison and hard labor 
under a criminal libel statute.  We are also informed that 
the GOAJ is coordinating the drafting of implementing 
legislation for the constitutional changes approved by the 
referendum with the Venice Commission of the Council of 
Europe.  However, the media environment is still far from 
free and the Council of Europe has appointed a Special 
Rapporteur on Political Prisoners, a German parliamentarian 
who is expected to visit the country in June. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Should your Azerbaijani interlocutors raise any of 
these issues, you are certain to hear complaints that 
Azerbaijan is treated unfairly by the United States and 
Europe on human rights and democracy compared to Armenia.  A 
consistent message that the United States has no double 
standards on human rights and that security and stability are 
enhanced by, and indeed depend on, the development of 
democracy and respect for human rights will reinforce the 
unwavering message that the United States delivers to 
Azerbaijan on the key reform issues. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶15. Your visit provides an opportunity to engage with key 
GOAJ decision makers and demonstrate the strategic importance 
of the United States' relations with Azerbaijan at a moment 
of important regional change.  Your pursuit of a tangible 
objective with long-term implications will be taken as a 
positive sign as Azerbaijan attempts to read the tea leaves 
to assure itself of the United States' intentions in light of 
the Turkey-Armenia process.  End comment. 
 
DERSE