VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHAN #0306/01 1180542
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 280542Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2369
INFO RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1069

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000306 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E-MBEYZEROV, INR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV MA
SUBJECT: AN EXILE RETURNS: PIERROT RAJAONARIVELO ENTERS THE FRAY 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: After seven years of exile in France, Mr. Pierrot 
RAJAONARIVELO returned to Madagascar on April 25, and is now poised 
to enter the political fray as alternative to TGV, Ravalomanana, and 
Ratsiraka.  Mr. Rajaonarivelo is the National Secretary of AREMA, 
the political party of former president Didier Ratsiraka, and is 
among the most well-known Malagasy politicians exiled after the 2002 
crisis.  Vice-Prime Minister for Decentralization and Budget before 
his exile, he was sentenced to five years imprisonment for 
corruption and abuse of power.  However, he retains widespread 
support on Madagascar's east coast, and attempted to run in the 2006 
presidential election, but was banned from participation and from 
returning to the country.  Rajaonarivelo will reveal more details 
about his intentions in a press conference later this week, but he 
will be an influential player in the coming months, whether he 
chooses to follow or challenge the transition government. END 
SUMMARY. 
 
PIERROT RAJAONARIVELO IN THE GOVERNMENT 
---------------------- ---------------- 
¶2. (SBU) Pierrot Rajaonarivelo (born June 17, 1946 on Ile St. Marie) 
served presidents Didier Ratsiraka and Albert Zafy as Ambassador to 
the United States for almost eight years, from 1989 to 1997.  He was 
considered one of Ratsiraka's "promising young intellectuals", and 
upon Ratsiraka's return to power in 1997 he was appointed one of 
three Vice-Prime Ministers, in charge of decentralization and 
budget.  Following the 2002 crisis and the rise of Marc 
Ravalomanana, he fled into exile in France, and was sentenced in 
abstentia to five years of imprisonment for extortion, embezzlement 
and abuse of power. 
 
THE AREMA PARTY (ALLIANCE FOR THE REBIRTH OF MADAGASCAR) 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
¶3. (SBU) After his re-election in 1997, Didier Ratsiraka withdrew 
from the public leadership of AREMA, which he had founded 22 years 
prior, and named Rajaonarivelo (from his own ethnic group, the 
Betsimisaraka) as the party's new National Secretary.  It later 
became clear that Ratsiraka had transferred power solely in order to 
comply with the legal requirements of his position as president, but 
Rajaonarivelo quickly began showing independence from the party's 
"founding father".  In the 2001 presidential election, Rajaonarivelo 
actively sought the candidacy of AREMA, hinting that it was time for 
Ratsiraka to step aside for a new generation of political leaders - 
only to be disappointed when Ratsiraka decided to run again. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The tension only increased as the election progressed. 
Facing dairy tycoon Marc Ravalomanana, AREMA's younger members 
preferred Rajaonarivelo, while the party's "dinosaurs" swore loyalty 
to Ratsiraka.  Once the two leaders went into exile in 2002, the 
remaining party leadership split.  The party's formal steering 
committee maintained loyalty to Ratsiraka, while supporters of 
Rajaonarivelo selected a "National Secretary ad Interim" to 
represent themselves.  In 2006, Ratsiraka loyalists boycotted the 
presidential election, while Rajaonarivelo attempted to stage a 
comeback, but was not permitted to return.  Faced with this 
intractable divide, a third faction formed: AREMA Matotra (Mature 
AREMA), headed by former Deputy Pierre RAHARIJAONA.  Although they 
maintained ties with the AREMA family, Raharijaona led this new 
group down a more practical path in support of Ravalomanana. 
 
RAJAONARIVELO, RAJOELINA AND THE HAT 
------------------------------------ 
¶5. (SBU) Rajaonarivelo is strongly rumored to be one of the main 
funding sources behind Andry Rajoelina's March coup, allegedly 
steering the movement from abroad in an attempt to pave the way for 
his own return.  With Rajoelina now in power (in likely 
contravention of an understanding between the two at the beginning 
of the process), however, Rajaonarivelo has now distanced himself 
from TGV: in statements to the press, he has indicated that he 
considers the transition period to be too long, and the movement to 
be a coup with no respect for legality.  However, in a joint 
communique with former Prime Minister Tantely ANDRIANARIVO (still in 
exile), Rajaonarivelo thanked Rajoelina and the High Transitional 
Authority (HAT) for having overthrown the Ravalomanana regime, and 
announced their imminent return and their wish to contribute to a 
"concerted transition."  He also called for an open national 
reconciliation, and a general amnesty "of facts and acts" (not just 
a presidential pardon) for all of the political prisoners and exiles 
- which would enable him to run in the next presidential election. 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) After several false starts in the last month, Rajaonarivelo 
returned on April 25.  Indeed, his return has been rumored to be 
imminent since late January.  His planned welcome event was 
cancelled, in the face of possible HAT opposition to his return, but 
two days after arrival he remains free, and has promised a press 
conference later this week.  The HAT - which already has its hands 
full without additional players joining the field -- had stated a 
preference that exiles wait until after the June National Conference 
to return, admitting their concern that Rajaonarivelo and his fellow 
exiles may not simply fall in line. 
 
¶7. (SBU) COMMENT: Rajaonarivelo generally is seen as the most 
plausible challenger in the next presidential election, and AREMA 
stock has been rising in recent weeks as the HAT has flailed and 
failed, and as Ravalomanana's return remains quite improbable. 
Despite rumors of reconciliation with Ratsiraka, it appears that the 
two factions remain divided.  However, Rajaonarivelo has eroded 
Ratsiraka's support base in Tamatave with his more active engagement 
from abroad over the last three years, and now represents the 
stronger (and younger) half.  French government advice to 
Rajaonarivelo not to return to Madagascar at this unsettled time 
apparently had little impact. 
 
 
MARQUARDT