VZCZCXRO3780
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0285/01 1100603
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 200603Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2345
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI 0001
RUEHKU/AMEMBASSY KUWAIT 0008
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000285 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/FO AND AF/E 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ECON CN
SUBJECT:  Comoran President Announces Referendum May 17 
 
¶1. (SBU)  SUMMARY:  Comoran President Sambi announced the 
constitutional referendum will be held May 17.  The new draft 
revision has not been made public yet, but is expected to 
concentrate powers in the Union presidency, reduce island autonomy, 
and allow Sambi to extend his current term in office.  Opposition 
leaders have publicly vowed to prevent the referendum from taking 
place "by all means possible." END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU)  In a radio address April 15, Union of the Comoros 
President Sambi announced that a referendum would be held May 17 to 
revise the constitution; the campaign begins April 25.  Having 
previously postponed the referendum, the President spent the last 
several weeks in negotiations with the three island presidents to 
seek consensus on a way forward.  After Sambi informed the dip corps 
April 10 that they had reached consensus, it appears the talks ended 
instead in disagreement. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  The GOC will have to issue a decree for the referendum 
including the proposed changes to the constitution.  The President 
has confirmed that he will take into account recommendations from 
the March 4-7 Inter-Comoran Dialogue.  However, it is expected that 
the revised constitution will include a provision for the President 
to remain in power beyond his current mandate, which ends in 2010. 
It is also expected to concentrate power in the central Union 
government and to diminish island autonomy.  In recent meetings, 
Sambi has explained his intentions regarding his mandate are only 
based on the need to "harmonize" mandates to reduce the number of 
costly elections.  As to the changes for Union power, he insists 
these are necessary for the Comoros to develop.  A "Congress" of 
parliaments, once the National and three island assemblies are 
elected, would be asked to decide on the exact date of the next 
Union President election, based on the revised constitution, if it 
passes. 
 
Opposition Opposes Referendum 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4. (SBU)  "Opposition" island presidents Abdouwahabi (Grande Comore) 
and Ali Said (Moheli) announced April 12 that talks with the Union 
had "failed."  In a meeting with the dip corps late April 15, 
Abdouwahabi criticized Sambi's government for being inflexible in 
negotiations.  Perhaps in desperation, both Abdouwahabi and Ali Said 
announced on April 12 their willingness to step down in 2010 (two 
years early) in order to pressure Sambi to respect the end of his 
mandate.  (Note:  Sambi answered them in his speech:  because 
Anjouan president Moussa Toybou refuses to step down in 2010, he 
ignores the offer and will move forward with his referendum, 
including provisions to extend his mandate.  End Note.)  Abdouwahabi 
reiterated his argument that Sambi's effort to prolong his term in 
office via a referendum that "retroactively" applies to his mandate 
would be illegal. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Separately, some 15 opposition political parties, including 
that of former President Azali, issued a declaration denouncing 
President Sambi's attempt to remain in office.  They called the 
referendum illegal and called on the three island presidents and the 
Comoran people to actively prevent the referendum from taking place. 
 The statement included a scathing criticism of Sambi, noting 
millions in foreign assistance (EU, Arab League, Kuwait Fund, and 
others) while civil servant salaries remain unpaid and there are no 
signs of development.  They also attacked Sambi for his dealings 
with the "Arab mafia" led by Comoro Gulf Holdings Bashar Kiwan.  The 
politicians noted Kiwan has reportedly been arrested and 
investigated in Dubai for fraud related to a telecom license he 
obtained in the Comoros.  Unconfirmed reports suggest that 
"billionaire Talal Alkhoury" invested USD 34 million in the deal, 
but claims Kiwan defrauded him, embezzled the money for other uses, 
and sold the license to another operator.  The statement notes 
Kiwan's "Federal Commerce Bank" (BFC) is "open" in Moroni, but still 
does not have a license.  They also highlight the "illegal" passage 
of the economic citizenship law, under pressure from Kiwan, which 
now appears to be allowing the GOC to sell passports to stateless 
persons in Kuwait and the Emirates. 
 
¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: Whatever the intentions or legality of the 
referendum, President Sambi's determination to move forward with it 
may come at a high cost to the Comoros' fragile stability.  Longtime 
international legal experts in the Comoros note that Anjouan would 
never and will never accept the new constitutional arrangements the 
minute one of their own is no longer in power.  Diplomats agree 
there is no "need" for Sambi to extend his mandate, though no one 
has told him as much.  It appears one strong reason to prolong the 
mandate is pressure from Bashar Kiwan, who has enormous influence 
with Sambi and is providing "benefits" to GOC officials.  Kiwan's 
interests, including the "economic citizenship" deal from which he 
appears to be profiting, would be unlikely to survive in a 
post-Sambi Comoros.  Opposition promises of "extreme measures" and 
"inspiration from Madagascar" deserve to be taken seriously given 
 
ANTANANARI 00000285  002 OF 002 
 
 
what is at stake.  END COMMENT 
 
MARQUARDT