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R 030346Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2288
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 000247 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/E-MBEYZEROV 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MA CN
SUBJECT: ANTANANARIVO UPDATE: MADAGASCAR'S "NEW OPPOSITION" FIGHTS 
ON 
 
¶1. SUMMARY: This is U.S. Embassy Antananarivo's Weekly Update for 
the week of March 30 to April 3, an unclassified review of major 
events and information from the U.S. mission to Madagascar and the 
Comoros.  The last two weeks in Madagascar have been dominated by 
ongoing demonstrations, while Andry Rajoelina continues naming the 
members of his "High Transitional Authority" and government and 
presses ahead with an unpopular and nonconsensual "National Meeting" 
of political parties and civil society.  Comoros' response to the 
March 29 referendum on Mayotte was muted, but dialogue on a 
constitutional referendum on President Sambi's mandate continues 
between the Union government and the opposition. END SUMMARY 
 
MADAGASCAR: LAST MONTH'S GOVERNMENT, THIS MONTH'S OPPOSITION 
------------------------------- ---------------------------- 
 
¶2. DAILY STREET DEMONSTRATIONS CONTINUE: Madagascar's "new 
opposition", composed of members and supporters of the former 
government and the TIM party as well as opponents of Andry 
Rajoelina's unconstitutional rise to power, have held daily protests 
in Democracy Square (at Ambohijatovo Park) and Place de 13 Mai. 
Encouraged from abroad by former president Marc Ravalomanana, the 
demonstrators are calling for the reinstatement of Parliament, the 
return of Ravalomanana, and the resignation of Rajoelina.  For two 
weeks now, demonstrations have lasted two to three hours before 
disintegrating into fist fights and stone-throwing with supporters 
of Rajoelina's "High Transitional Authority" (HAT), and then being 
broken up with tear gas and gunfire.  The protests are generally 
contained to downtown Tana, and have not translated into widespread 
violence or looting. 
 
¶3. FILLING THE HAT: Rajoelina has named 41 of the 44 members of the 
HAT, who will serve an advisory role for the duration of the 
transition government; most are close allies from the past three 
months, and only two were affiliated with the former government 
(many more neutral candidates privately claim to have declined the 
invitation to join).  At time of writing, he had not yet named the 
remaining 10 to 15 ministers that will fill out his cabinet, 
including, notably, a Minister of Defense; there appears to be no 
consensus within the military on a suitable candidate.  On March 31, 
HAT Prime Minister Roindefo Monja convened the diplomatic corps to 
discuss their priorities for the transition period, but the response 
was underwhelming: no Ambassadors attended, and none of the 
representatives present engaged with the HAT.  Minister of Finance 
Benja Razafimahaleo listed food security, internal security, good 
governance, stabilization of public finances, and the creation of 
new institutions of state as HAT priorities for the next two years. 
 
¶4. NATIONAL MEETING LAUNCHED: The HAT launched its National Meeting 
("Assises Nationales") on April 2 to discuss government during the 
transition period, develop a plan for rewriting the country's laws, 
and determine a calendar for new elections within 24 months.  In 
addition, they will likely determine the composition of the Council 
for Economic and Social Recovery (a 120-member body that essentially 
replaces parliament).  As the HAT already determined the structure 
of the transition government, and outlined the five 
previously-mentioned priorities, the National Meeting is left with a 
fairly limited agenda - and only two days to accomplish it (see 
next). 
 
¶5. ...BUT OPPOSITION (AND MOST DIPLOMATS) DECLINE INVITATION: 
Ravalomanana's political party, TIM, has boycotted the National 
Meeting, along with a large group of civil society organizations 
(the CCOC) and several members of the "old opposition", notably 
former president Albert Zafy, who has been left out of the 
transition government altogether - reportedly at his own request. 
(As noted below, Zafy was an early critic of the HAT and its 
president's "self-proclamation", so his refusal to participate 
should not have come as a surprise.)  TIM has announced a competing 
"National Consultation" for April 3 to "restore legality and 
democracy in Madagascar", while the civil society group is planning 
a "National Convention" for later in the month that will purportedly 
start from scratch to design new institutions and procedures for the 
transition government.  Zafy's "old-opposition" organization, the 
Council for National Reconciliation (CRN), opposes the way that the 
HAT was set up, and will instead support the creation of six 
autonomous provinces based on the country's pre-2007 administrative 
system.  Despite three separate forces (and counting) opposing the 
HAT, Rajoelina appears determined to stay the course.  Only a few 
ambassadors, all from Africa, attended the opening ceremony, along 
with - and apparently encouraged by -- the visiting AU Special Envoy 
Ablasse Ouedraogo.  UN Senior Mediator Tiebile Drame returned to 
Tana today but also boycotted the opening. 
 
¶6. TGV HITS THE ROAD: For the first time since the crisis began in 
January, Rajoelina left the capital to test the provincial waters; 
thus far, the response has been positive, although a slew of 
populist measures have ensured support at each turn.  In Moramanga 
on Sunday, he announced a pension increase, as well as subsidies on 
rice, oil, and bread.  He then visited Fianarantsoa with former 
mayor (and recently-released political prisoner) Pety Rakotoniaina, 
 
ANTANANARI 00000247  002 OF 003 
 
 
to announce Rakotoniaina's installation as de facto mayor (PDS) of 
the city, along with the previously mentioned food subsidies.  On 
Wednesday, he joined HAT PM Monja in Tulear, where a reported 50,000 
people attended a rally for their native son. (Monja is a son of 
Tulear, and the first PM from the region.) Cheap rice and oil was 
once again on offer, as well as a 25% reduction in public 
transportation fares - at the expense of the transportation 
companies themselves. 
 
¶7. MINING OPERATORS UNDER SCRUTINY: Rajoelina has announced that 
mining contracts will be frozen, in order to "ensure greater 
revenues from drilling and extraction rights".  While denying that 
the government planned to cancel these projects, the HAT asserted 
that previous contracts simply weren't done according to the law. 
In an allegedly separate incident, the offices of QMM, a Canadian 
mining company operating near Fort Dauphine, were searched by the 
military for weapons and/or mercenaries; local authorities have also 
reportedly requested a complete list of QMM expatriate staff for the 
same reason. 
 
FOOD AID AND DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE 
---------------- ------------------ 
 
¶8. U.S. STEPS IN TO EASE FOOD CRISIS: Ambassador Marquardt and 
French Ambassador Jean-Marc Chataigner jointly visited Ambovombe, 
Berenty, and Toliary, in southwestern Madagascar, along with the 
USAID Director and French development colleagues and journalists. 
The trip was intended to highlight the region's food insecurity 
among vulnerable Malagasy populations, theinternational community's 
continuing engagement there, and to launch a USD $50,000 initial USG 
response effort in tandem with UN agencies and NGOs.  The visit was 
widely, and favorably, reported on in the Malagasy press. 
 
¶9. JIM CARREY'S "BETTER U" SUPPORTS MCC-INITIATED PROJECT: 
Agricultural and Business Centers (ABC's) Attracting Outside 
Attention: The Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) effort to 
reduce poverty through the creation of locally operated ABC's in 
rural Madagascar has attracted the attention of actor Jim Carrey's 
Better U Foundation. The ABCs provide appropriate technical and 
managerial assistance to local farmers and small, medium and large 
business ventures. To help them expand their operations, the Better 
U Foundation has made a grant to two of the ABCs (in the regions of 
Boeny and Diana) to increase the scale of their System of Rice 
Intensification (SRI) dissemination efforts. SRI is a rice 
production methodology that was developed in Madagascar that does 
not rely on expensive external inputs (machinery, seeds, 
fertilizers, pesticides or herbicides), and significantly increase 
yields (2-3 times the national average). In a land where rice is 
consumed three times a day, this effort will go along way to reduce 
hunger and rural poverty.  This is in follow-up to Carrey's August 
2008 visit to Madagascar. 
 
COMOROS 
------- 
 
¶10. MAYOTTE VOTES: The Mayotte referendum passed with 95% in favor 
of becoming a Department. The reaction in the Comoros was muted, a 
few hundred peaceful protestors.  In Doha the week afterward, 
President Sambi obtained the support of the Arab League to criticize 
France over Mayotte, defending the Comoros' claim on the island. 
 
¶11. EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE FROM THE ARAB LEAGUE: Also in Doha, the 
Arab League pledged USD 24 million in emergency assistance to the 
Comoros for a period of one year.  Projects to be funded will be 
identified.  The media reported that Ethiopia and Sudan also 
received similar Arab League pledges. 
 
¶12. SAMBI'S CONSTITUTIONAL GAMBIT: Negotiations between the Union 
Government and opposition continue about the expected constitutional 
referendum, in particular to address President Sambi's intention to 
extend his mandate one year to 2010.  President Sambi met for four 
hours March 23 with the three island presidents (Grande Comore 
Abdouwahabi, Moheli Ali Said, Anjouan, Moussa Toybou) to discuss the 
Inter-Comoran Dialogue and the proposed constitutional referendum. 
Opposition leaders Abdouwahab and Ali Said presented a proposal for 
Sambi to step down in 2010 and rework the electoral calendar in 
order to harmonize elections.  President Sambi maintains he will 
either 1) step down in 2010 if ALL island presidents shorten their 
mandates to do the same OR 2) seek to prolong his mandate to 2011. 
TZ President Kikwete's timely visit offered the opportunity for the 
AU to encourage consensus.  While the sides remain far apart, Sambi 
agreed for his Cabinet Director Dossar to meet again Saturday with 
the four island executives to seek a solution.  The President 
departed March 27 for a week in Doha, and will review their work 
when he returns -- and probably announce a new date for his 
referendum as well as releasing a new revised text. 
 
¶13. VIOLENCE ON GRANDE COMORE: Inter-village conflict between Iconi 
and Moroni ended last week; Comoran military remain in force on the 
street to prevent a return to violence.  Union, city, and local 
 
ANTANANARI 00000247  003 OF 003 
 
 
officials, as well as tradition "Notables," have been active in 
negotiating a truce over this land dispute and reached a tentative 
agreement to resolve the issue in order to prevent further violence. 
 Street violence broke out in Moroni March 24 as villagers from 
Iconi (southern edge of Moroni) and inhabitants of Moroni fought 
gang battles over a land rights dispute.  An unknown number of 
people were injured, some seriously.  After 36 hours of young men 
brandishing machetes, pipes and rocks -- stopping cars to/from Iconi 
-- the military stepped in March 25 to maintain order.  The reported 
source of the conflict is a land dispute decision by a "corrupt" 
judge that went against Iconi, whose citizens attacked Moroni and 
then were counter-attacked by young men from Moroni.  Iconi 
merchants in the Moroni central volo-volo market were expelled and 
some of their stalls were burned.  Island president and opposition 
leader Abdouwahabi is from Iconi, and last Friday he prevented 
President Sambi from attending prayers there.  It is unclear to what 
extent the fighting over this land dispute may be connected to the 
bigger political picture.  Comoros Officer has been in constant 
contact with CJTF-HOA personnel to share information and keep USG 
people out of harm's way.  Foreigners have not been targeted. 
 
 
MARQUARDT