VZCZCXYZ0006
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHYE #0154/01 0630755
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 040755Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8767
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 1609
RUEHFT/AMCONSUL FRANKFURT 1888
RUEHSI/AMEMBASSY TBILISI 2390
RUEHKB/AMEMBASSY BAKU 1151
RUEHPNH/NVC PORTSMOUTH 0473

UNCLAS YEREVAN 000154 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR CA/VO/F/P (MEEARL), CA/FPP (RBILLINGS), CA/FPP 
PASS KCC (FPM) AND DHS, DS/CR/V/G, EUR/CARC (CWRIGHT) 
MOSCOW FOR USCIS (SSINCLAIR-SMITH) 
FRANKFURT FOR RCO (KBROUGHAM) 
TBILISI FOR CONS (LHENDERSON) 
BAKU FOR CONS (WGRAY) 
NVC FOR FPM (BAUSTIN) 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: CVIS CMGT ASEC SMIG KFRD AM
SUBJECT: EMBASSY YEREVAN VALIDATION STUDY RESULTS FOR B1/B2 
ISSUANCES OF FALL 2007 
 
REF: A) 08 YEREVAN 441 B) 07 YEREVAN 349 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.   Eight percent of tourist visa holders in 
Yerevan overstayed their visa in 2007, according to a 
validation study of nonimmigrant B1/B2 visa applicants who 
received visas from September 1 - November 30, 2007.  This is 
an improvement from the previous year's overstay rate of 11%. 
Elderly female applicants continue to overstay at a rate 
significantly higher than all other applicant groups.  For the 
period reviewed, Yerevan's overall B1/B2 refusal rate was 62%. 
End Summary. 
 
-------------------- 
METHODOLOGY 
-------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) A total of 866 B1/B2 visas were issued in Yerevan from 
September 1, 2007 through November 30, 2007.  Using the DHS 
Arrival and Departure Information System (ADIS) and targeted 
phone calls, Yerevan's Fraud Prevention Unit reviewed the 
travel history of 812 of these 866 B1/B2 issuances who entered 
the United States. 
 
¶3. (U) Yerevan's previous two validation studies (reftel) 
surveyed B1/B2 issuances from September 1 - November 30.  For 
comparison purposes, we once again focused on this date range 
which includes little seasonal variation in terms of type of 
issuances, issuance rates, or purpose of travel. The standard 
visa issuance for Armenian passport holders is a single entry, 
three-month validity visa (for reciprocity and cost reasons), 
so B1/B2 travelers issued between September 1 and November 30, 
2007 should have returned from their U.S. visit by September 
1, 2008. 
 
¶4. (U) Yerevan's Fraud Prevention Unit (FPU) exported from the 
Consolidated Consular Database all non-immigrant visa 
issuances from Yerevan.  FPU then sent this file to CA/FPP to 
be run against the DHS databases ADIS (Arrival Departure 
Information System) and ATS (Automatic Targeting System).  The 
returned data was sorted by visa class, resulting in the 812 
B1/B2 records reviewed.  Arrival and departure records for the 
same traveler, logged within six months of one another, was 
considered evidence of good visa use, and on these records no 
further action was taken.  For records with no recorded 
departure, FPU attempted to call the applicants to confirm 
whether they were still in the United States or, 
alternatively, had exited the United States but forgotten to 
submit their I-94 Arrival-Departure Record to Customs and 
Border Control at flight check-in.  For applicants who had 
returned to Armenia without a departure record, FPU requested 
that they present their passports at the Consular Section for 
further verification of return. FPU's validation survey found 
that approximately 20% of travelers without departure records 
had, in fact, returned to Armenia. 
 
¶5. (U) Post counted anyone who had not departed the United 
States after their maximum authorized six-month stay as an 
overstay.  ADIS records reflect extensions or change of 
status, so post felt confident counting anyone who had not 
departed the United States after their maximum authorized stay 
(typically six months) as an overstay.  A number of these 
overstays, however, could still have pending, approved or 
denied adjustment of status requests, as discussed below (see 
paragraph 15). 
 
------------- 
ANALYSIS 
------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The study showed that of the 812 B1/B2 travelers 
reviewed, 747 returned within six months (92%), while 65 
travelers (8%) overstayed their tourist visa issuance.  Fifty- 
six applicants (6% of those issued) who received tourist visas 
did not use their visa.  This percentage is higher than the 
previous year's 4% of issuances that did not use their tourist 
visa. 
 
¶7. (SBU) These overstay results are an improvement over the 
most recent B1/B2 validation studies conducted for the same 
period in 2005 and 2006. The overstay rate improved from 11% 
 
 
for the 2006 period to 8% for the current 2007 period 
reviewed. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Post's overall refusal rate for B1/B2 visa applicants 
for the reviewed period of September 1 - November 30, 2007 was 
62% (NIV report 44).  Post's B1/B2 refusal rate for the two 
prior years was 65% (2006) and 57% (2005). 
 
¶9. (SBU) Women comprised 54% of post's 812 B1/B2 issuances, 
with men comprising only 46%.  This slight gender imbalance 
among issuances may reflect the conventional wisdom at post 
that, due to traditional gender roles and poor employment 
opportunities at home, Armenian men are more likely than 
Armenian women to apply for tourist visas in order to work 
illegally as migrant workers in the United States. This may 
create for male applicants a higher standard that must be 
overcome than that for female applicants, for whom family in 
Armenia may be viewed as a more compelling tie. Below is a 
side-by-side comparison of the distribution of the 812 B1/B2 
issued travelers versus the 65 B1/B2 overstays, when sorted by 
gender and age. 
 
--- 
All B1/B2 Issued Travelers  |  B1/B2 Overstays 
Gender>>  Female    Male    |    Female    Male 
0-15        2%       2%     |     3%        0% 
16-25       7%       5%     |     9%        5% 
26-35      11%       11%    |    11%       12% 
36-45       7%        7%    |     6%        6% 
46-55      13%        9%    |    12%        6% 
56+        14%       11%    |    22%        8% 
Total      54%       46%    |    63%       37% 
--- 
 
¶13. (SBU) The table shows that although women comprised 54% of 
B1/B2 issued travelers, they were a significantly higher 63% 
of all B1/B2 overstays.  The age and gender distribution is 
largely similar among all issued travelers and B1/B2 overstays 
except in the 56+ Female category, where this demographic 
jumps from 14% of all B1/B2 issued travelers to 22% of B1/B2 
overstays. 
 
¶14. (SBU) The above data shows that women 56 years of age and 
older, i.e. the "grandma set" demographic, are much more 
likely to overstay than other issued demographics.  This is 
not a new discovery.  Post recognizes that it continues to 
struggle with determining what constitutes sufficiently strong 
ties for this demographic group.  Anecdotally, age, set ways, 
and family ties to Armenia alone do not seem enough to keep 
this cohort from overstaying. Post conjectures that warmer 
weather, a Yerevan-like environment among the Glendale, 
California diaspora (where nearly all applicants want to go), 
and better healthcare from the California state Medicaid 
program Medi-Cal are significant inducements for some in this 
demographic group to overstay. For these reasons, post should 
vet these applicants just as stringently as younger, less 
established applicants.  Conversely, post notes that a 
disproportionate number of our complaints are for refusals of 
elderly women (with e-mails usually written by the U.S. 
citizen son-in-law of the applicant). 
 
¶15. (SBU) As noted above, post considered any traveler who 
stayed greater than six months as an overstay for the purposes 
of this study.  This overstay cohort thus includes those who 
applied for adjustments of status while in the United States. 
Post considers these adjustments of status as derogatory for 
the purpose of this study because they are actions taken by 
applicants who did not keep to their travel plans as expressed 
to the Consular Officer at the time of their visa interview. 
Of the 65 overstays in this study, 22 travelers (34%) applied 
for adjustments of status.  Four applications were denied, 
four were pending and 14 were approved as of this writing.  Of 
the approved applications, seven were for B1/B2 extensions, 
four were for CR6 spouses of American citizens, and three were 
for IR0 parents of American citizens.  Five of these approved 
adjustments (all three of the IR0s and two of the B1/B2 
extensions), were granted to overstays within the 14 person 
"grandma set". 
 
 
 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶16. (SBU) Post is heartened by the improved overstay rate of 
8%, but realizes the low overstay rate comes in part thanks to 
a high refusal rate that for the studied period reached 65%. 
Post will continue to carefully review older female 
applicants, cognizant of their higher propensity to overstay 
despite seemingly strong social and family ties to Armenia. 
Post thanks CAA/FP for its support in conducting this 
verification study. 
 
YOVANOVITCH