VZCZCXRO3731
OO RUEHIK RUEHPOD RUEHYG
DE RUEHNO #0107/01 0781125
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 191125Z MAR 09
FM USMISSION USNATO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2785
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY 6644
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RUEHNO/USDELMC BRUSSELS BE PRIORITY
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS BE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 USNATO 000107 
 
SIPDIS 
 
H PASS TO CODEL CASEY; EUR/PGI FOR JAMES KUYKENDALL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OREP AMGT ASEC AFIN NATO BE
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL CASEY 
 
The following is the text of a scenesetter provided by 
Ambassador Volker to CODEL Casey in advance of their trip to 
Brussels to attend the Brussels Forum.  It is best viewed in 
memorandum format.  Begin text: 
 
MEMORANDUM FOR MEMBERS OF THE SENATE AND HOUSE DELEGATIONS 
 
FROM:       Amb. Kurt Volker, USNATO 
 
SUBJECT:    Brussels Forum:  Lay of the Land in Europe and 
NATO 
 
 
Welcome to Brussels, and to NATO! 
 
Your visit comes at a time of extraordinary challenge for our 
transatlantic community, but also a time of extraordinary 
opportunity.  Our task is nothing short of re-building the 
transatlantic relationship - across the board - for a new era. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Europe's Side of the Global Everything-Crisis 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
Like us, Europe is buffeted by the financial crisis, risky 
bailouts, energy disruptions, climate change, and worried 
about the Middle East, Iran, Pakistan and more.  European 
leaders meet frequently, but are often divided in their 
approaches and reluctant to take transformational decisions. 
We risk seeing a re-nationalization of economic policy, trade 
protectionism, and a shedding of costly commitments, whether 
in cutting greenhouse gas emissions or defense spending. 
 
One key role America has played in the past, and needs to 
play again today, is to remind Europeans of the importance of 
European unity - for Europe and the United States.  Another 
is for America to lead by example, yet in a way that consults 
and brings European governments to a higher common 
denominator.  As bad as the times are, President Obama's 
attendance at the back-to-back NATO and U.S.-EU Summits - 
just two weeks away - is an opportunity to rally our 
community and build common action. 
 
--------------- 
Rebuilding NATO 
--------------- 
 
NATO is a modern paradox.  It has never been more engaged 
operationally than today - in Afghanistan, Kosovo, Iraq, the 
Mediterranean, the Horn of Africa.  Our nations' leaders 
still turn to NATO to provide solutions to today's security 
problems, wherever they may come from. 
 
Yet NATO suffers from international divisions and a lack of 
strong European political will and commitment to these very 
operations.  A host of factors have taken their toll: 
 
      - Years of divisions over Iraq, Guantanamo, and more; 
      - European preference for coordinating policy in the EU 
instead of NATO; 
      - Differing American and European threat perceptions 
after September 11; 
      - European public aversion to use of military force in 
almost any circumstances; 
      - A vast divide within Europe over how to deal with an 
aggressive Russia; and 
      - Weak European defense spending, resulting in 
divergent U.S. and European defense capabilities. 
 
Still, the United States and Europe need NATO.  We form a 
single transatlantic community based on shared democratic 
values.  We face the same challenges in the world, and can 
only deal with them effectively if we deal with them 
together. 
 
Re-building NATO will require us to forge a new consensus on 
four baskets of issues: 
 
      - Afghanistan/Pakistan; 
      - Russia and the East; 
      - the Balkans; and 
      - NATO's future. 
 
In addition, French President Sarkozy's decision to 
 
USNATO 00000107  002 OF 003 
 
 
reintegrate France into NATO's military structure should 
reinforce Europe's commitment to our transatlantic community. 
 
 
-------------------- 
Afghanistan/Pakistan 
-------------------- 
 
Allies have become increasingly concerned over the situation 
in Afghanistan.  They therefore welcome President Obama's 
Strategic Review, and appreciate the Administration's 
determination to consult with Allies and bring their thinking 
on board. 
 
Vice President Biden, Secretaries Clinton and Gates, and 
SACEUR Craddock and CENTCOM Commander Petraeus have all 
engaged Allies recently on Afghanistan.  The North Atlantic 
Council went to Afghanistan on March 16-18.  Special 
Representative Holbrooke will meet with Allies on March 23. 
 
While we do not know the conclusions from the Strategic 
Review, some key factors will clearly shape our thinking: 
 
      - We need to see this as a regional challenge.  Not 
Afghanistan alone, but also with Pakistan and the wider 
region, including Russia, India, China and Iran. 
      - This is not simply a military challenge, so military 
efforts alone will not succeed.  We need an integrated 
civil-mil strategy, with the resources to back it up. 
      - In the long-term, Afghanistan needs to be able to 
provide for its own security.  We therefore need to provide 
 trainers and funding to strengthen the Afghan National Army 
and Afghan National Police. 
      - The elections to be held in August are critical, and 
we need to do all we can to provide security, expertise, 
and funding to help make them a success. 
 
We hope and expect that the results of the U.S. strategy 
review will inform and drive a change in NATO's own approach 
to the issue.  In particular, we hope that NATO can: 
 
      - Fill out the election security force (2 more 
battalions) 
      - Fill out all the Afghan Army training teams (14 teams) 
      - Put money into the Afghan National Army Trust Fund; 
and 
      - Add new police training teams to speed Afghan police 
development. 
 
------------------- 
Russia and the East 
------------------- 
 
Having gotten used to the Russia of the 1990's, Europe is now 
unsure how to deal with the more authoritarian and assertive 
Russia of today.  These differences came to a boil in the 
aftermath of the war in Georgia last August. 
 
Some Allies seek a stable relationship with Russia to the 
seeming exclusion of all else; others focus on the need to 
support democratic reformers in the east and speak plainly 
about aggressive Russian policies; still others want to focus 
NATO on its core mission of collective defense at home. 
 
The only way to reach a NATO consensus is to address all of 
these interests at once.  Thanks to Secretary Clinton's 
meetings at NATO on March 5, the following elements are now 
at the heart of an emerging - though still fragile - NATO 
consensus: 
 
      - NATO will continue to work toward a Europe whole, 
free and at peace; 
      - Article 5 collective defense remains at the heart of 
the Alliance; 
      - We will continue to support reform in Europe's East, 
including using the NATO-Ukraine and NATO-Georgia 
Commissions to work toward NATO membership; 
      - We will engage Russia in dialogue through the 
NATO-Russia Council, including at Ministerial levels, in 
order         to build practical cooperation in key areas; and 
      - We will at the same time use our dialogue with Russia 
to raise areas where we have fundamental differences, 
including over Georgia and the CFE Treaty. 
 
 
USNATO 00000107  003 OF 003 
 
 
----------- 
The Balkans 
----------- 
 
While NATO grapples with policies on Afghanistan and Russia, 
it cannot afford to drop the ball in the Balkans.  We have 
made substantial progress since ending ethnic cleansing in 
the 1990's.  Romania and Bulgaria are members of both NATO 
and the EU, and Croatia is well on its way.  But for the 
others in the region, we must continue to hold out the 
prospect of NATO and EU membership, while insisting on 
democratic and market reforms. 
 
------------- 
NATO's Future 
------------- 
 
NATO is due to produce a "Declaration on Alliance Security" 
at the April Summit, a first attempt to define NATO's role in 
meeting future security challenges, and a precursor to 
drafting a new "Strategic Concept" over the coming year. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
New Secretary General - Reforming NATO 
-------------------------------------- 
 
The selection of the next NATO Secretary General will also be 
important in charting NATO's future course.  Jaap de Hoop 
Scheffer's term expires on July 31, 2009.  As we select a new 
Secretary General, we need to explicitly empower him or her 
with the CEO authorities needed to shift budgets and people 
to meet changing NATO priorities. 
 
It is an exciting and critical time at NATO.  I look forward 
to discussing these and other issues with you.  Until then, 
please let me know if my staff or I can be of any assistance. 
ANDRUSYSZYN