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RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 4310

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 TOKYO 000660 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 03/24/09 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Aso beset with troubles both at home and abroad since assuming 
office as prime minister six months ago (Sankei) 
 
(2) Six months since inauguration of Aso cabinet: Backlash against 
prime minister briefly stops apparently due to opposition party's 
trouble (Yomiuri) 
 
(3) Ichiro Ozawa's cloister government plan and overall picture of 
his connections to general contractors (Part A) (Shukan Gendai) 
 
(4) MD system cannot possibly hit North Korean missile with MD 
system, says government source (Yomiuri) 
 
(5) Editorial: ODA to Africa a golden opportunity for Japan's 
regaining its status (Mainichi) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Aso beset with troubles both at home and abroad since assuming 
office as prime minister six months ago 
 
SANKEI (Page 5) (Full) 
March 24, 2009 
 
Prime Minister Taro Aso has been in office six months as of today. 
Due to his enemy's mistake, that is, the arrest of Democratic Party 
of Japan (DPJ) President Ichiro Ozawa's state-funded secretary, Aso 
has managed to avoid a situation in which he would otherwise be 
pressured to dissolve the House of Representatives just after the 
(fiscal 2009) budget is enacted. But the public are still looking on 
his administration with severe eyes. The global economic crisis is 
expected to become prolonged. In addition, North Korea reportedly is 
preparing to launch a long-range ballistic missile. As it stands, 
the public is filled with vague concerns. In the run-up to the 
expiration of the House of Representatives members' terms of office 
in September, when will Aso decide to dissolve the Lower House, 
while saving his administration's honor? 
 
Aso Avoids being driven into corner 
 
Hearing the news of the burning down of the home of the late Shigeru 
Yoshida in Oisomachi, Kanagawa Prefecture, Aso lamented the loss at 
his official residence on the morning of March 22: "That place is 
full of memories for me." He then fell silent. Aso spent every 
weekend at the Yoshida residence in his early days. Since he has 
modeled himself after the autocratic prime minister, recalling that 
Yoshida used to smoke a cigar with an air of perfect composure, it 
was almost as if Aso had lost his emotional support. 
 
In the graduation ceremony at the National Defense Academy held the 
same day, Prime Minister Aso introduced the following passage from a 
speech delivered by then Prime Minister Yoshida during the first 
graduation ceremony at the academy: 
 
"I expect you will fulfill your mission from the broad viewpoint of 
defending freedom for all humankind in the world as human beings, 
instead of taking a narrow view of protecting only your nation and 
people." 
 
In the aftermath of the arrest of Ozawa's secretary over illegal 
 
TOKYO 00000660  002 OF 006 
 
 
donations from Nishimatsu Construction Co., calls for dumping 
Liberal Democratic Party President Aso seem to have been waned in 
the DPJ. But the facial expression of Aso, beset with troubles both 
at home and abroad, is becoming more and more serious. 
 
Government to be tested over economic, security issues 
 
On source of trouble with no exit in sight is the global economic 
crisis. Critical views about the Aso cabinet's policy of expanding 
domestic demand by disbursing large-scale government funds have 
abated since the U.S. and China have begun to fall in suit with 
Japan. But the administration remains unable to come up with a 
decisive prescription to resolve the crisis. Aso hopes to 
demonstrate his leadership in the Group of 20 (G-20) Financial 
Summit in London on April 2, but it is uncertain whether the 
participating countries will be able to take joint steps. 
 
Aso also plans to start work to compile a supplementary budget bill 
immediately after the fiscal 2009 budget clears the Diet. However, 
if the opposition camp raise objections, the passage of an extra 
budget is likely to be delayed to late July. If the economic 
situation worsens even more by then, the administration will 
inevitably lose political ground. 
 
There are also security problems. First, there is the question of 
how Japan should deal with a possible launch of a ballistic missile 
by North Korea. Japan is considering the possibility of intercepting 
an incoming projectile with the Japanese and U.S. joint missile 
defense (MD) system, but there are still a number of technological 
problems left unresolved. Even if Japan brings the case into the 
United Nations Security Council, a sanction resolution against North 
Korea is unlikely to be adopted. 
 
In addition, the question of whether to change the government's 
conventional interpretation of the Constitution over the exercise of 
the right to collective self-defense will undoubtedly emerge as a 
political challenge in connection with Japan's measures to deal with 
pirates in waters off Somalia. Will the administration be able to 
alter the interpretation, despite opposition from the Cabinet 
Legislation Office? The government will likely be put up to the test 
on such issues. 
 
Aso needs to consider what time is appropriate for dissolving the 
Lower House, particularly since economic and security issues are 
complicatedly intertwined with the Diet situation. Aso reportedly 
told an aide: "How to steer the Diet over the next several months 
could affect the fate of Japan." Aso no longer has the leeway with 
the public to make anymore gaffes. 
 
(2) Six months since inauguration of Aso cabinet: Backlash against 
prime minister briefly stops apparently due to opposition party's 
trouble 
 
YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full) 
March 24, 2009/03/24 
 
The Aso cabinet will mark its sixth month since inauguration. Signs 
of a recovering of public support ratings for the cabinet, which 
have sharply fallen due to Prime Minister Aso's gaffes and the like, 
are nowhere in sight. And yet, a strange sense of stability 
permeates the administration, thanks to the case of a violation of 
the Political Fund Control Law involving DPJ President Ozawa's fund 
 
TOKYO 00000660  003 OF 006 
 
 
management body. Moves have started to search for a strategy of 
achieving a rollback, including a possible cabinet shuffle. 
 
Prime Minister Aso at an executive meeting of the Liberal Democratic 
Party (LDP) indicated that he wanted to compile an additional 
economic stimulus package. He said, "We must deal with the economic 
situation even in May and June, when companies will be closing their 
business books." He intends to order Finance Minister, State 
Minister for Financial Services and State Minister for Economic and 
Fiscal Policy Yosano to ready a supplemental budget for fiscal 2009, 
once the regular fiscal 2009 budget is enacted (the fiscal 2008 
first and second extra budgets have already been enacted). 
 
Support ratings for the Aso cabinet have plummeted over the past six 
months due to such factors as his series of gaffes and mistakes in 
reading Chinese characters. There was even a rumor that he had 
significantly lost weight. However, Aso appears to be regaining his 
usual bullishness, thanks to growing criticism of the DPJ and its 
problems involving Ozawa. 
 
The prime minister recently revealed to persons close to him a 
scenario of his dissolving the Lower House on his own terms, 
achieving a victory, being reelected unopposed as president of the 
LDP and then maintaining a long-term administration. 
 
Probably with this bullishness leading to conceitedness, the prime 
minister made an indiscreet remark at a meeting of the council of 
experts to overcome the economic crisis. He said, "Stockjobbers 
(kabuya) are not to be trusted." Persons close to him lamented this 
remark, with one mid-ranking member of the Aso faction saying, "The 
prime minister makes a gaffe whenever he drops his guard." Even so, 
the prevailing view in the ruling camp is that they want to closely 
watch how the Ozawa case develops. Anti-Aso forces are also taking a 
wait-and-see stance. 
 
Lawmakers close to the prime minister are beginning to call for a 
cabinet shuffle. Former Prime Minister Mori on the 20th said in 
Istanbul, Turkey, "We must have Prime Minister Aso fight with 
formidable enemies, fully displaying his total power by shuffling 
the cabinet." Special advisor to the LDP president Yoshinobu 
Shimamura during a satellite broadcast BS11 program on the 19th 
said, "We should go into the election with a gorgeous line-up." 
 
However, a point has also been made that it would be difficult for 
the prime minister, whose support ratings are on the 10 PERCENT 
level, to carry out cabinet shuffle, as it would make enemies and 
friends" (senior LDP member in the Upper House). Since the sense of 
stability permeating in the administration does not reflect the 
assessment of the prime minister, a deep-rooted view is that it 
would be impossible to go into the election under the leadership of 
Prime Minister Aso. 
 
One former cabinet minister who puts himself at arm's length from 
the prime minister pointed out, "The time remaining before the next 
Lower House election is becoming limited. Unless support ratings for 
the Aso cabinet recover, moves to oust Aso will become even 
fiercer." A difficult path lies ahead for the prime minister. 
 
(3) Ichiro Ozawa's cloister government plan and overall picture of 
his connections to general contractors (Part A) 
 
SHUKAN GENDAI (Pp.20-23) (Abridged slightly) 
 
TOKYO 00000660  004 OF 006 
 
 
April 4, 2009 
 
The day Ozawa becomes another Kakuei Tanaka 
 
A representative of a mid-level construction company in Iwate 
Prefecture explained in this way the enormous influence held in the 
region by the office of Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President 
Ichiro Ozawa: 
 
"At one time, representatives of general contractors assembled to 
win contracts for a public-works project. It was one of those 
'workshops' that were held to rig the bids. A person representing a 
certain contractor with connections to Ozawa said, 'We have received 
Mr. Ozawa's 'word from on high.' The person in charge then called 
the Ozawa office and confirmed what he had just said. As a result, 
that company won the bid." 
 
Keeping general contractors under his thumb, Ozawa has wielded 
significant power over the construction industry. Ozawa showed up at 
a meeting of DPJ-endorsed candidates, held on March 15 at the 
Yokohama Bay Sheraton Hotel and Towers. Before some 100 supporters, 
Ozawa said, "I'm sorry for all the fuss," while bowing deeply. But 
without referring to the illegal donation scandal involving 
Nishimatsu Construction Co., Ozawa continued: 
 
"There has been no power shift in Japan. I wonder if other countries 
regard such a country as a democracy. In order to turn Japan into a 
real democracy, we must take over the reins of government." 
 
In a press conference on March 17, Ozawa made the following comment, 
as if to divert public attention from the suspicions hanging over 
him: 
 
"It is impossible to sort out corporations (in terms of whether or 
not they have won orders for) public works projects. Corporate and 
organizational donations must be banned altogether. Half-baked 
efforts would be meaningless. Once we take power, we will have to 
fundamentally change the rules governing political funds." 
 
The person who has received massive donations from general 
contractors is now advocating a total ban on corporate donations? 
What a farce! 
 
No one in the DPJ has been able to put the proverbial bell around 
Ozawa's neck, so to speak. Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama, for 
instance, has been behaving like Ozawa's adviser, telling him: "At a 
time like this, you can rely on (People's New Party deputy head 
Shizuka) Kamei and (New Party Daichi Representative Muneo) Suzuki." 
 
When an aide expressed his desire to serve as chief cabinet 
secretary under a Prime Minister Hatoyama, the DPJ secretary general 
ostensibly played it down, saying: "At a time like this when our 
president is in trouble, it's terrible to suggest a Prime Minister 
Hatoyama. That would not make me happy." 
 
How is the scandal that started with the arrest of Ozawa's 
secretary, Takanori Okubo, going to unfold? Will Ozawa resign as DPJ 
president? The capitol district of Nagatacho has been greatly 
shaken. 
 
There is no doubt that Ozawa will step down sooner or later. Ozawa 
is DPJ leader, but assuming that post was not his desire. As seen 
 
TOKYO 00000660  005 OF 006 
 
 
during his days as Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secretary general, 
Ozawa excels in wielding power from behind the scenes. 
 
He was always reluctant to remain in the party's top post. In 2004, 
Naoto Kan resigned as DPJ president over his unpaid national pension 
premiums. Ozawa subsequently accepted the offer to become Kan's 
successor, but he soon abruptly refused to take on the job, citing 
his own lapse in premium payments. 
 
In 2007, Ozawa's deal with then Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda to form 
a grand coalition fell through. This was again followed by Ozawa's 
announcement that he would step down as DPJ president, creating a 
ruckus in political circles. 
 
Rumor has it in Nagatacho that Ozawa will pass the DPJ presidency 
either to Katsuya Okada or Hatoyama. He is trying to hand pick the 
most promising prime ministerial candidate. 
 
Ozawa's mentor, the late Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka, continued to 
exert significant power over the Japanese political community even 
after falling from power due to the Lockheed scandal. Ozawa is 
planning to prolong his political career by holding sway as 
kingmaker, like Tanaka. 
 
(4) MD system cannot possibly hit North Korean missile with MD 
system, says government source 
 
YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full) 
March 24, 2009 
 
The government will try to intercept using the missile defense (MD) 
system a missile which North Korea is going to launch under the 
guise of being an artificial satellite. A government source on March 
23 said, "It is impossible when someone fires a bullet, for another 
party to fire a bullet and hit it." The source took the view that it 
would be difficult to intercept a North Korean missile. The same 
source also noted, "There is no time for Defense Minister to report 
to Prime Minister Aso, once a missile has been launched. Everything 
probably has been arranged in advance for the interception." 
 
(5) Editorial: ODA to Africa a golden opportunity for Japan's 
regaining its status 
 
MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full) 
March 23, 2009 
 
The growing global financial and economic crisis has affected 
developing countries. 
 
A slump in demand for primary commodities has worsened the financial 
situations of the developing countries. In addition, investments 
made from developed countries have drastically decreased. 
Remittances from migrant workers, which are a major source of 
foreign exchange, have dropped. It is predicted that the growth rate 
of Africa, which enjoyed the high growth in the 1990s, will drop to 
the three-percent level. 
 
Economic reconstruction in the developed countries and steady 
economic growth in the developing nations are absolutely necessary 
for sustainable global-scale economic development. To that end, 
continued financial and technology assistance by the developed 
nations is important. That is the role of official development 
 
TOKYO 00000660  006 OF 006 
 
 
assistance (ODA). 
 
However, Japan's ODA budget has been cut since the late 1990s. In 
the fiscal 2009 budget, the ODA budget has dipped below 700 billion 
yen. The severe economic recession has reinforced an inward-looking 
attitude. The follow-up meeting of the Fourth Tokyo International 
Conference on African Development (TICAD IV), which was held on 
March 21 and 22 in Gaborone, the capital of Botswana, could become a 
good opportunity to review Japan's assistance. 
 
In the fourth TICAD held late last May, Japan pledged to double its 
ODA budget to 1.8 billion dollars by 2012, as well as to boost 
investments by private companies. Also other developed countries, 
the World Bank, and United Nations organizations promised to provide 
support in such areas as poverty reduction, community system 
development, education and welfare services. 
 
The main purpose of the fourth TICAD follow-up meeting was to check 
the progress of aid programs. Although there is the trend of 
decreasing aid, both public and private sectors have a strong 
interest in Africa. A public-private joint mission last summer 
visited the southern, eastern, middle and western parts of Africa. 
 
Regarding grants and technical aid, an agreement has been reached 
that one-third of the aid amount to be provided in five years until 
2012 will be used specific aid projects. Moreover, More than 100 
projects in the areas of infrastructure, agriculture, water, the 
environment and education are now under consideration. 
 
It is significant for Japan to strengthen its relations with Africa, 
in which there area many countries producing such primary 
commodities as rare metals. 
 
The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), which implements 
ODA programs, recently sent staff members to Arbil in the northern 
Iraq -- Kurdish territory -- to be stationed there. Of the 5 billion 
dollars in aid to Iraq that Japan has promised, 3.5 billion dollars 
will be yen loans. ODA projects worth about 280 billion yen have 
been completed so far. All the projects are indispensable for Iraq's 
economic reconstruction, including the generation of electricity, 
irrigation, harbors, plumbing, and oil refineries. Work on all the 
projects will start from now. The stationing of JICA staff members 
will contribute to promoting the projects. 
 
Aid is not just charity. Aid contributes to protecting Japan's 
economic interests by stabilizing the securing of natural resources. 
During the current economic crisis, it is important for Japan to 
regain its aid-donor status. 
 
ZUMWALT