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Viewing cable 09THEHAGUE154, NETHERLANDS - CABLE 2 OF 2: DUTCH POSITIONS IN ADVANCE OF

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09THEHAGUE154 2009-03-04 16:18 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy The Hague
VZCZCXRO9513
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHTC #0154/01 0631618
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 041618Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2619
INFO RUEHAT/AMCONSUL AMSTERDAM 4172
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 000154 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EEB/OMA - AWHITTINGTON, EEB/TPP - JSHANNON, EUR/ERA - 
LKIRKCONNELL 
 
TREASURY FOR IMI - VATUKORALA, IMB - BMURDEN, WMONROE, MBEASLEY 
 
USDOC FOR 4212/USFCS/MAC/EURA/OWE/DCALVERT 
 
STATE PASS FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD - INTERNATIONAL DIVISION 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN PGOV PREL NL
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS - CABLE 2 OF 2: DUTCH POSITIONS IN ADVANCE OF 
G20 SUMMIT 
 
Ref: (A) STATE 17502, (B) THE HAGUE 116, (C) THE HAGUE 62, (D) THE 
HAGUE 60, (E) 08 THE HAGUE 1018, (F) 08 THE HAGUE 981, (G) 08 THE 
HAGUE 910, (H) 08 THE HAGUE 901, (I) 08 THE HAGUE 840, (J) 08 THE 
HAGUE 771 
 
THE HAGUE 00000154  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
1. This is the second of two cables providing post's answers to 
questions in Ref A about Dutch plans for the G20 summit and 
responses to the financial crisis. 
 
-------------------------------- 
III. THE BROADER ECONOMIC CRISIS 
-------------------------------- 
 
2. Response H:  The global economic downturn is significantly 
affecting the domestic real economy.  The Port of Rotterdam - 
Europe's largest - has seen a 15 percent decline in port traffic 
since October, with more expected.  Industrial production has 
declined an average Q 25 percent since November, and even 
agricultural exports (which normally are well insulated from 
economic shocks) have shrunk between 5 and 10 percent since January 
1.  Several Dutch industry giants have announced layoffs at their 
offices around the world, including 7,000 at ING and 6,000 at Royal 
Philips Electronics.  Tata Steel's Corus Plc, Europe's second 
largest steel company, has taken advantage of the GONL's offer to 
allow shorter working hours for 4,600 of its employees, and it may 
still lay off 1,000 workers.  See paragraph 3 in Part One of this 
cable series (septel) for details on GONL efforts to stimulate the 
economy. 
 
3. Response I:  The open Dutch economy is heavily dependent on 
international trade; Dutch exports are expected to decline almost 12 
percent in 2009 as a result of the global slowdown.  The GONL has 
extended the current export credit insurance facility to include 
destination countries where no commercial export credit insurance is 
available, and it is looking at additional measures to boost 
exports. 
 
4. Response J:  Despite the crisis, the GONL and Dutch public 
maintain a fierce loyalty to free trade and investment.  They 
strongly oppose protectionist measures at home, in the EU, and 
globally.  The GONL joined the European Commission and other Member 
States in fervently objecting to the original "Buy American" 
provisions of the U.S. Recovery and Reinvestment Act.  Even though 
the final version of the bill ensures that EU companies can compete 
for publicly funded U.S. infrastructure projects under the WTO's 
Government Procurement Agreement, the GONL argue that the provision 
still sends a dangerous protectionist signal to the rest of the 
world.  In keeping with its free trade philosophy, the GONL has not 
implemented domestic measures that would impose trade restrictions 
or discriminate against foreign investors. 
 
5. Response K:  Due to the small physical size of the Netherlands 
and the international nature of virtually all of its major 
businesses, the GONL's financial and economic stimulus measures do 
not show local geographic preferences. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
IV. OUTLOOK AND POLITICAL RAMIFICATIONS 
--------------------------------------- 
 
6. Response L:  Following is the near-term outlook for the 
Netherlands' key economic indicators, according to the Netherlands 
Bureau for Economic Policy and Analysis: 
 
- GDP:  2 percent growth in 2008; expected shrinkage of 3.5 percent 
in 2009, followed by less severe shrinkage of 0.25 percent in 2010. 
Qin 2009, followed by less severe shrinkage of 0.25 percent in 2010. 
 
 
- Unemployment:  2009 will see an end to a period of 3 years of 
decreasing unemployment.  The 2008 level of 3.9 percent will rise to 
5.5 percent in 2009 and 8.75 percent in 2010. 
 
- Inflation:  It's expected to fall sharply, from 2.5 percent in 
2008 to 1 percent in 2009 and 2010.  This is due mainly to lower 
prices of oil and raw materials. 
 
- Trade:  The cornerstone of the Dutch economy will be hit hard in 
2009 but will recover slightly in 2010.  Exports of goods (excluding 
energy) grew 1.4 percent in 2008, but they will shrink by 11.75 
percent in 2009.  They are expected to start to recover with 1.5 
 
THE HAGUE 00000154  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
percent growth in 2010. 
 
- Government Budget:  The GONL enjoyed a budget surplus of 1.3 
percent of GDP in 2008.  Before the full onset of the financial 
crisis in September 2008, the government had predicted a 2009 
surplus of 1.2 percent.  That has now transformed into a projected 
budget deficit of 3 percent in 2009 and 5.5 percent in 2010. 
Primary contributors are substantially lower tax revenue, higher 
expenditure on unemployment benefits, and declining natural gas 
profits. 
 
- Stock Market:  The leading Dutch indicator, the AEX, has lost 
almost 54 percent of its value since March 2008, including 17 
percent since January 1, 2009. 
 
7. Response M:  The Dutch parliament, media, and public continue to 
hotly debate what steps should be taken to address the economic 
downturn.  While Prime Minister Balkenende and his cabinet enjoyed 
widespread public support in late 2008 for their quick intervention 
in the financial sector, criticism of the GONL's cautious, 
incremental approach to the crisis has increased.  That said, the 
general consensus is that the Prime Minister's coalition government 
is unlikely to collapse.  His cabinet continues to consult closely 
with parliament, labor, and industry on the way forward. 
 
8. Response N:  In general, the GONL has not become more critical of 
the United States in the wake of the financial crisis.  Finance 
Minister Wouter Bos and other public figures have pointed to 
failures in U.S. - and Dutch - banking supervision and greedy 
corporate executives as key reasons for the crisis.  The GONL also 
was highly critical of the original "Buy American" provisions in the 
U.S. Recovery and Reinvestment Act.  Nonetheless, the GONL, as well 
as the Dutch media and public, continues to view the U.S. as a close 
friend and ally.  It is unlikely that the crisis will negatively 
affect our long-term relationship. 
 
9. Response O:  The GONL maintains a robust international security 
posture.  Post has no indication that the financial crisis will 
significantly affect Dutch security or defense policy.  One 
exception, however, could be the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program. 
 The Netherlands is one of nine partner countries participating in 
the development of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter to replace its 
aging F-16 fleet.  Like all partners, the Netherlands is very 
concerned about the JSF program's potentially increasing cost. 
Although the GONL remains committed to supporting JSF, it faces 
tough budget decisions as a result of the financial crisis. 
Although unlikely, GONL financial commitment to JSF could waiver. 
 
10. Response P:  The GONL maintains a standing policy of 
contributing 0.8 percent of GDP to foreign assistance programs. 
Some in parliament are calling for revisions to this policy which 
would decrease GONL contributions to development goals.  The Prime 
Minster and his cabinet have cautioned against such action.  At the 
same time, because Dutch GDP is expected to shrink 3.5 percent in 
2009, the real euro amount of Dutch assistance will decrease. 
Compared to 4.75 billion euro in foreign assistance in 2008, MFA 
officials estimate that the 2009 figure will drop to 4.58 billion. 
 
11. Response Q:  As with development assistance, the GONL remains 
firmly committed to its international peacekeeping and NATO 
Qfirmly committed to its international peacekeeping and NATO 
commitments.  In 2007, the Dutch extended their 1,700-troop 
commitment in the most dangerous region of Afghanistan until 2010, 
despite strong public skepticism.  In 2009, the GONL will consider 
possible follow-on commitments in Afghanistan after 2010.  While 
budget constraints will influence GONL thinking on whether to 
maintain "boots on the ground" in Afghanistan, it will be political 
- not financial - considerations that ultimately will determine the 
GONL's decision. 
 
12. Embassy The Hague's point of contact for financial and G20 
issues is Economic Unit Chief Shawn Gray, grays@state.gov, telephone 
(31)(70) 310-2340. 
 
 
GALLAGHER