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P 030629Z MAR 09
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TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS
 
SUBJECT: SPECIAL ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION 
 
-------------------------------- 
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT: 
-------------------------------- 
 
Secretary Clinton to Israel, West Bank, March 2-4, 2009 
 
------------------------- 
Key stories in the media: 
------------------------- 
 
The media reported that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived 
in Israel last night and will meet with various Israeli officials 
today Q PM Ehud Olmert, FM Tzipi Livni, DM Ehud Barak, PM-designate 
Benjamin Netanyahu, President Shimon Peres, and Jerusalem Mayor Nir 
Barkat.  She will travel tomorrow to Ramallah for meetings with 
Palestinian officials. 
 
The Jerusalem Post quoted GOI officials as saying that both Clinton 
and Netanyahu would likely be in Qlistening mode,Q to hear the 
positions of the other side.  Similarly, a Yediot headline reads: 
QClinton on a Listening Trip.Q  Yediot cited NetanyahuQs belief 
that, subsequently, Clinton will not pressure Israel.  The Jerusalem 
Post quoted an Israeli official as saying that he did not expect 
QfireworksQ around either the two-state issue or construction in the 
settlements. 
 
HaQaretz reported that Israel plans to present Secretary Clinton 
with a series of "red lines" it wants Washington to incorporate into 
its planned dialogue with Tehran about Iran's nuclear program.  The 
red lines were jointly formulated by the Foreign Ministry and the 
defense establishment, and Netanyahu has been briefed on them.  The 
document recommends that Israel adopt a positive attitude toward the 
planned U.S.-Iranian dialogue, but proposes ways of minimizing what 
Israeli officials see as the risks inherent in such talks. Its main 
points are as follows: 
 
¶1. Any dialogue must be both preceded by and accompanied by harsher 
sanctions against Iran, both within the framework of the UN Security 
Council and outside it. Otherwise, the talks are liable to be 
perceived by both Iran and the international community as acceptance 
of Iran's nuclear program. 
 
¶2. Before the dialogue begins, the U.S. should formulate an action 
plan with Russia, China, France, Germany and Britain regarding what 
to do if the talks fail. Specifically, there must be an agreement 
that the talks' failure will prompt extremely harsh international 
sanctions on Iran. 
 
¶3. A time limit must be set for the talks, to prevent Iran from 
merely buying time to complete its nuclear development. The talks 
should also be defined as a "one-time opportunity" for Tehran. 
 
¶4. Timing is critical, and the U.S. should consider whether it makes 
sense to begin the talks before Iran's presidential election in 
June. 
 
HaQaretz reported that the red lines were approved by PM Ehud 
Olmert, FM Tzipi Livni and DM Ehud Barak at a meeting with senior 
defense officials last week. All three plan to raise them at their 
respective meetings with Clinton Tuesday.  Within the defense 
establishment, the majority view, led by chief of Military 
Intelligence Amos Yadlin, is that Israel should regard the 
U.S.-Iranian dialogue as an opportunity rather than a threat. The 
minority view, spearheaded by the Defense Ministry, is that the 
dialogue entails grave risks.  Israel's estimate of the progress of 
Iran's nuclear program differs from both that of the International 
Atomic Energy Agency and that expressed on Sunday by Adm. Mike 
Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff.  Israel's 
assessment is that Iran does not yet have enough uranium for a bomb; 
it thinks Iran will reach this point only in late 2009 or early 
¶2010.  Nevertheless, Olmert told Canadian Foreign Minister Lawrence 
Cannon on Sunday that the "timetable for Iran's nuclear program is 
pressing, and therefore, determined action is necessary. Israel will 
not tolerate a nuclear Iran." 
 
HaQaretz said that one question to which Israeli officials will be 
seeking an answer from Clinton is what role Dennis Ross, the 
Secretary of State's newly appointed special advisor for the Gulf 
and Southeast Asia, will actually play.  HaQaretz reported that it 
is widely expected that Ross will focus on the Iranian nuclear 
issue, but this has not been stated officially. 
 
The Jerusalem Post quoted a senior State Department official as 
saying that yesterday Secretary Clinton expressed doubt that Iran 
would respond to the Obama administration's expressions of interest 
in engaging Tehran on nuclear and other issues.  The Jerusalem Post 
quoted the official as saying that Clinton made the remarks in a 
private meeting with the Foreign Minister of the United Arab 
Emirates, Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who had expressed to Clinton 
concern among Persian Gulf nations that Obama might make a deal with 
Iran without full consultation with U.S. allies. 
 
The media reported that at least $4.4 billion in aid was pledged 
yesterday in Sharm el-Sheikh by donors for both the Palestinian 
economy at large, and Gaza in particular Q about twice the sum that 
PA President Mahmoud Abbas had expected.  The plan is to make the 
money available to the PA over the next two years. 
 
In its lead story, HaQaretz (Hebrew Ed.)  quoted French President 
Sarkozy as saying at the donorsQ conference that the release of 
Gilad Shalit Q a dual Israeli-French citizen -- in exchange for 
hundreds of Palestinian prisoners should be given first priority, a 
message that Israel Radio said irritated Egypt.  Israel Radio 
reported that French PM Francois Fillon conveyed the same message to 
an audience of Jewish leaders in Paris.  Maariv reported that 
American officials did not accede to a request by ShalitQs family to 
meet Secretary Clinton. 
 
Yediot reported that Syrian President Bashar Assad told foreign 
sources over the past few days that he is willing to sign a peace 
treaty with Netanyahu and that he will not condition it on the 
Palestinian issue. 
 
The media reported that, despite opposition within his own party, 
Labor Chairman Ehud Barak is expected to meet PM-designate Benjamin 
Netanyahu once more before the end of the week.   Barak signaled to 
the members of the Labor Party's Knesset faction yesterday that he 
wished to enter the government, ending the uncertainty shrouding the 
matter since the polls.  Yediot reported that even the QBarak camp 
in the party is opposed to joining NetanyahuQs government.  Makor 
Rishon-Hatzofe cited the fear of senior Labor members that the party 
might split.  Yediot reported that yesterday Kadima cabinet minister 
Shaul Mofaz failed in a bid to make his party join the government 
coalition.  Yediot quoted political sources as saying that Yisrael 
Beiteinu Chairman MK Avigdor Lieberman has stated over the past few 
days that he had accepted the post of foreign minister.  The 
newspaper reported that Likud is offering him either the foreign 
affairs or treasury portfolio, but that Lieberman prefers the 
former. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that both Democratic and Republican 
members of Congress are calling for an investigation into Charles 
Freeman, the new chairman of the National Intelligence Council over 
his ties with Saudi Arabia and criticism of Israel. 
 
The media reported that the report issued yesterday by the State 
Comptroller on efforts to develop a missile defense system against 
Qassam rockets, which the south has been desperately awaiting for 
eight years now, reveals a worrying picture of bureaucratic 
confusion, wasted money and broken rules.  The bottom line: The Iron 
Dome system is still far from completion, and Israel still has no 
effective defense against short-range rockets.  All media reported 
that a rocket was launched yesterday at the Ashkelon area. 
 
------------ 
BLOCK QUOTES 
------------ 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
The independent, left-leaning HaQaretz editorialized: Q[NetanyahuQs] 
attempt to turn back the diplomatic process is fated to fail, and it 
will only embroil Israel with the Obama administration at a time 
when it needs America's crucial support for the struggle against the 
Iranian nuclear bomb. 
 
Senior columnist and longtime dove Yoel Marcus wrote in Ha'aretz: 
QThe U.S. Secretary of State is coming with the same mantra [as 
Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni].  But for now, it's not working, 
neither with us nor with the Palestinians.  Don't you have anything 
new to offer, Hillary? 
 
Giora Eiland, former Director of the National Security Council, 
wrote in the mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot Aharonot: QThe 
maximum that an Israeli government can offer the Palestinians while 
surviving politically is much less than the minimum that a 
Palestinian regime can accept while surviving politically. 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized: Q[Tzipi 
LivniQs choice] may prove unfortunate for Israel, for her party, and 
for her personally. 
 
Yoav Shorek editorialized in the nationalist, Orthodox Makor 
Rishon-Hatzofe: QThe second Netanyahu government is a golden 
opportunity for a strategic turn. 
 
Block Quotes: 
------------- 
¶I.  QNetanyahuQs Naysaying 
 
The independent, left-leaning HaQaretz editorialized (3/3): QUnder 
different circumstances, there would be nothing new to [Secretary] 
Clinton's positions, which continue the previous administration's 
policy. However, the outcome of Israel's election undermines the 
international consensus. The Obama administration is going to 
demand of Netanyahu that he continue the process his predecessors 
have led, just as it is demanding of Hamas that it adopt the 
Quartet's conditions and recognize Israel.  Israeli intransigence 
will have a double price: It will create an unnecessary and damaging 
conflict with the United States and, worse than that, it will 
strengthen those voices calling for abandoning the two-state 
solution and granting the Palestinians full rights in a bi-national 
state.  Netanyahu, who wanted to lead Israel from the center, is 
barricading himself into the extreme right of the political 
spectrum.... His attempt to turn back the diplomatic process is 
fated to fail, and it will only embroil Israel with the Obama 
administration at a time when it needs America's crucial support for 
the struggle against the Iranian nuclear bomb. 
 
II.  QAnything New, Hillary? 
 
Senior columnist and longtime dove Yoel Marcus wrote in Ha'aretz 
(3/3): QWe need to understand that Hillary has enormous influence, 
and it would be a mistake to circumvent her via the President or 
Congress and the Jewish lobby.  It is vital to treat what she says 
as if it came from the President's mouth, to avoid getting into 
fights with her, and to make sure we keep our promises.... The most 
important element in the relationship between the Obama 
administration and whoever winds up leading Israel is an agreement 
in principle that each country refrain from surprising the other, 
according to Danny Halperin, an expert on the United States.  In 
other words, neither they nor we should surprise each other with 
plans, initiatives or actions to which both parties have not 
consented.  A sort of Qno surprises pact,Q under which neither side 
takes any action without giving the other a chance to have its say. 
Hillary will not be here long enough to find out what kind of 
government we will ultimately have. But as an observer from the 
sidelines, it seems that Livni's opposition to joining a Netanyahu 
government is both firm and justified. [Livni] is following the 
right instincts when she says she must not participate in a 
nationalist government that may pay lip service to two states for 
two peoples, but will never make it happen.  The U.S. Secretary of 
State is coming with the same mantra.  But for now, it's not 
working, neither with us nor with the Palestinians.  Don't you have 
anything new to offer, Hillary? 
 
III.  QNo Chance for Two States 
 
Giora Eiland, former Director of the National Security Council, 
wrote in the mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot Aharonot: QThe 
Qtwo-stateQ idea is based on a series of assumptions: first, the 
main Palestinian national ambition is statehood.  There is no basis 
for this.  The Palestinian ethos is based on values such as justice, 
the recognition of their being victims, a desire to take revenge, 
and above all the Qright of returnQ.... The second assumption is 
that if a Palestinian state is established, it will be completed by 
Qmoderate elements.Q  There is no basis for that.. The third 
assumption is that two stable states can coexist in the narrow strip 
of land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean.... The 
Palestinian state will not be able to be independent and Israel will 
not be able to defend itself.  The fourth assumption is that Israel 
can implement such an agreement, which entails the evacuation of 
100,000 settlers. Such an operation would cost $30 million, not 
including the billions of dollars needed to relocate the army.  Is 
this possible?  In brief, one could say that the maximum that an 
Israeli government can offer the Palestinians while surviving 
politically is much less than the minimum that a Palestinian regime 
can accept while surviving politically. 
 
IV,  QIsraelQs Interests 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized (3/3): 
QThe question Netanyahu's various potential partners should ask 
themselves, however, is whether Israel can afford politics as usual 
right now.   If Iran cannot yet build a nuclear bomb, it is 
certainly closing in on that goal.  Operation Cast Lead plainly did 
not put an end to rocket fire from Gaza. Unemployment is soaring. 
And that is only the first trio of critical challenges.  For Livni 
in particular, the choice is weighty.  When it is formulating 
positions on settlements, on a strategy for dealing with Hamas and 
on facing the Iranian nuclear danger in the crucial next year or 
two, she might ask herself: Will Israel be better served by a narrow 
coalition, or by a government that demonstrably represents a wide 
electoral consensus?  For all the shifts and reverses, signs are 
that Livni has irrevocably made up her mind, and that Kadima 
performed well enough under her leadership in the elections to 
respect her decision to go into the opposition and hold together for 
now.  However, this choice may return to haunt her.  It may prove 
unfortunate for Israel, for her party, and for her personally.  Even 
when gauging her narrow interests, after all, there is no guarantee 
that a right-wing coalition will quickly crumble.  And there is 
certainly no guarantee that, if it does, a new election will bring a 
better result for her party and its would-be prime minister. 
 
¶V.  QOne Large Country 
 
Yoav Shorek editorialized in the nationalist, Orthodox Makor 
Rishon-Hatzofe (3/3): QThe second Netanyahu government is a golden 
opportunity for a strategic turn.  Given the collapse of 
disengagement, the rise of the Iranian axis, WashingtonQs opening to 
creative ideas, and first and foremost the recognition in Israeli 
society that the LeftQs solutions have been tried and failed, 
NetanyahuQs leadership will be a great hope if it is elevated to a 
bold vision. 
 
CUNNINGHAM