VZCZCXRO4123
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSQ #0124/01 0781626
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 191626Z MAR 09 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8110
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 0497
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000124 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ELECTION CAMPAIGN GENERALLY POSITIVE 
 
Sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary. The campaign for presidential and municipal 
elections has proceeded far better than parliamentary elections last 
year.  Should the trend continue, we assess that the conduct of 
these elections should advance Macedonia's Euro-Atlantic 
aspirations.  There are some municipalities of concern -- especially 
Gostivar, Struga, and Strumica.  The ruling VMRO party's 
presidential candidate, Georgi Ivanov, is still the clear 
front-runner.  VMRO and its ethnic Albanian coalition partner DUI 
look poised to hold onto control in their municipalities and perhaps 
to gain, especially VMRO.  (DUI already controls nearly all 
predominantly ethnic Albanian municipalities.)  The Ambassador and 
Embassy staff have carried out extensive outreach; by election day 
(first round) on March 22, we will have met mayoral candidates 
throughout the country.  End summary. 
 
So Far, Better... 
----------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The consensus of the international community -- including 
ODIHR's observation mission -- is that in general there is no 
comparison between the violent and bitter atmosphere in the 2008 
elections and the current campaign.  The Mayor of Tetovo, Hazbi 
Lika, told us recently that prior to June 2008 elections citizens 
were afraid to be out after dark for fear of roving gangs of party 
"activists."  This time there is no such problem.  Our visits to 
Tetovo and many other municipalities confirm this.  As we approach 
the end of the campaign it appears to be calm and orderly thus far. 
Many Macedonian contacts assert that this is chiefly -- though not 
solely -- due to concerted international pressure on both the GoM 
and the political parties to conduct better elections.  There is 
widespread understanding that last year's failure harmed Macedonia 
as a whole. 
 
...But Not Perfect 
--------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) There are still areas for concern.  Both of ODIHR's 
preliminary reports and our own contact with local sources suggest 
that intimidation -- in particular of civil servants to vote for the 
ruling VMRO (and likely DUI) and to deliver 20, 50, even 100 other 
votes -- is a real concern.  Indeed, Darko Aleksov, head of the 
respected local monitoring organization MOST, told us March 16 that 
thus far the elections are "Switzerland compared to 2008, but we're 
far from the quality of 2006 parliamentary elections, primarily 
because of intimidation."  At the private urging of the 
international community, PM Gruevski made a public statement on 
March 17 condemning political intimidation.  We have asked President 
Crvenkovski, who is not running for reelection, to do the same. 
 
Hot Spots? Gostivar, Struga, Strumica 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Additionally, the municipalities of Gostivar, Struga, and 
Strumica feature white-hot mayoral races with genuine bitterness 
among the candidates and their supporters.  These areas will require 
special attention to ensure a calm end to the campaign and a quiet 
election day (in the case of Gostivar and Struga, for both rounds; 
the race in Strumica should be decided in the first round as there 
are only two mayoral candidates there).  As for the municipal races 
overall, we expect the ruling coalition parties of VMRO and DUI to 
do quite well (see ref a). 
 
Presidential Race: Ivanov Versus.... 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) The presidential race has been generally well-run, with six 
of the seven candidates twice meeting for public restaurant meals to 
reaffirm their commitment to free and fair elections.  (DPA 
candidate Mirushe Hoxha missed both events for unconvincing 
reasons.)  VMRO candidate Georgi Ivanov appears to be maintaining 
his front-runner status, but some party leaders have privately 
admitted to us that he has been a disappointing candidate.  Ivanov 
has skipped several candidate debates and has made some inane public 
comments, yet no one believes he can be beaten: the VMRO machine 
behind him is just too strong.  The real parlor game has been to try 
to pick which of the other six candidates will make it to the second 
round to square off one-on-one against Ivanov.  Three of these -- 
SDSM's Ljubomir Frckoski, former VMRO Ljube Boskovski, and ND's 
Selmani -- all seem to have a realistic shot.  Some contacts have 
speculated that all three possibilities -- but especially an 
Ivanov-Boskovski race -- run the real risk of producing a turnout of 
less than 40% in the second round, which would thus invalidate the 
presidential election and require the whole process to start all 
over again with selection of candidates. 
 
Ambassador Outreach: What a Long 
Strange Trip It's Been 
-------------------------------- 
 
 
SKOPJE 00000124  002 OF 003 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Over the past weeks and right up to Election Day, the 
Ambassador has been continuing his outreach throughout Macedonia to 
meet with the mayoral candidates and Municipal Election Council 
heads to deliver "on behalf of President Obama and Secretary 
Clinton" a message of support for free, fair, and peaceful municipal 
and presidential elections.  We specifically focused on 
municipalities that have had problems in past elections -- 
especially the flawed parliamentary elections in June 2008 -- and 
where we expect hotly contested races this time.  This resulted in 
proportionally higher visits to predominantly ethnic Albanian areas, 
a point noted by some press but not seen as problematic since the 
inhabitants and candidates seemed to appreciate the extra attention 
from the Embassy.  Macedonian contacts both inside and outside of 
the government have also expressed appreciation for the Embassy's 
very active engagement ahead of the elections.   The Ambassador held 
private, joint meetings with the candidates and asked them to make 
joint public commitments to the National Democratic Institute's Code 
of Conduct.  All told, he will have met candidates in Zhelino, 
Tetovo, Bogovinje, Gostivar, Debar, Struga, Ohrid, Veles, Tearce, 
Stip, Strumica, Aracinovo, Lipkovo, Kumanovo, and the Skopje 
municipalities of Cair and Saraj.  At each stop he made clear that 
the behavior of the candidates and their supporters during the 
election process will determine the Ambassador's and the U.S. 
Embassy's view of them and their parties, and promised follow-up 
meetings after good elections, noting that in each group, one will 
emerge as mayor and the others will be important community leaders. 
Embassy staff have made similar outreach efforts in several other 
municipalities.  The Ambassador sent follow up letters to reiterate 
key points. 
 
¶7. (SBU) In Tetovo March 4 the Ambassador held a joint meeting with 
DUI party leader Ali Ahmeti and presidential candidate Agron Buxhaku 
as well as New Democracy (ND) party leader and presidential 
candidate Imer Selmani.  DPA party leader Menduh Thaci refused to 
attend this meeting on the grounds that he could not be seen by his 
party to legitimize Imer Selmani's ND, so the Ambassador held a 
separate meeting with Thaci and DPA's presidential candidate, 
Mirushe Hoxha.  All the leaders and presidential candidates agreed 
that free and fair elections are critical to Macedonia's future and 
made commitments to the press following the meetings. Thaci was 
ultimately forced to defend his decision to not participate in the 
meeting with Ahmeti and Selmani to the press but did so without 
being overly provocative or divisive, stating that he wants his 
party "to play the role of a fair opposition" and felt he could not 
meet with the other leaders and effectively convey that stance. 
 
¶8. (SBU) In nearly all predominantly ethnic Albanian municipalities 
the candidates expressed appreciation for U.S. and other 
international intervention and attention, pledged free and fair 
elections, and made a generally good show before the television 
cameras.  Several DPA candidates expressed some frustration that 
their campaign posters had been torn down (mostly, they claim, by 
DUI).  Since DUI already controls most of these municipalities, its 
candidates tended to take in the criticism but not to respond, 
apparently confident in their chances on election day. 
 
¶9. (SBU) In Gostivar, Independent candidate (and former mayor) Rufi 
Osmani was more forceful, voicing strong concerns about DUI 
candidate and incumbent Nevzat Bejta's close ties to members of the 
State Election Commission, Municipal Election Commission, and the 
Gostivar Chief of Police, and the heavy bias it creates in Bejta's 
favor.  The dislike between the two candidates was evident.  We have 
since received numerous, vociferous complaints and expressions of 
concern about the campaign in Gostivar, especially from Osmani's 
supporters.  We plan to travel to Gostivar again before election day 
to assess the situation and -- we hope --calm any tensions. 
 
¶10. (SBU) The atmosphere in Struga, which the Ambassador visited 
March 9, was already tense.  Struga's mayoral race is wide open and 
is the only municipal race in Macedonia that is considered a toss up 
between all the candidates, ethnic Albanian and ethnic Macedonian 
alike.  In the meeting the candidates openly exchanged accusations 
pertaining to the ethnic make-up of the Local Election Boards, 
recent inter-ethnic problems in the local schools and recent dirty 
campaigning by party activists.  No individual candidate was singled 
out by the accusations or excluded from them. 
 
¶11. (SBU) In Ohrid and Veles the candidates exchanged some playful 
barbs but appeared to mutually respect one another.  In both 
municipalities the hot topic was the lack of municipal funding and 
decentralization. 
 
¶12. (SBU) The Ambassador visited the predominantly ethnic Albanian 
Skopje municipalities of Cair and Saraj on March 11.  While the 
mayoral candidates agreed to the necessity of free and fair 
elections and agreed to this before the cameras, tangible tension 
was already apparent in both municipalities.  In Cair the challenger 
from New Democracy was the most outspoken candidate, voicing 
complaints over DUI monopolizing free billboard space with its 
campaign materials and alleging that their campaign headquarters had 
been receiving threats.  The candidates from DPA and the Democratic 
 
SKOPJE 00000124  003 OF 003 
 
 
Party of the Turks also noted inequities in the level of campaign 
resources DUI had at its disposal compared to the other parties. 
The concerns regarding billboard space culminated in a heated 
exchange between the ND candidate, the incumbent DUI candidate, and 
the MEC president towards the end of the meeting. 
 
¶13. (SBU) In Saraj the candidates of DPA, DUI and ND (all considered 
contenders) were generally respectful of one another.  However, the 
DPA candidate and DUI candidate (currently an MP) had a brief but 
lively exchange over DPA's allegations of celebratory gunfire at DUI 
rallies.  The live wire in Saraj was long shot PDP candidate Naser 
Hamiti who made a blanket allegation against all three of the other 
parties represented over harassment and intimidation of voters in 
previous elections.  He alleged that as much as 55% of Saraj's 
electorate had abstained from previous elections out of fear and 
would be equally afraid to vote in these elections.  (Note- While 
there was substantial evidence of voter intimidation occurring in 
Saraj during previous elections Hamiti's allegations are grossly 
exaggerated and are more an indication of his party's desperate 
situation than actual conditions.)  On March 15, the Ambassador 
attended an NDI-organized round-robin soccer match among DUI, ND, 
and DPA candidates and supporters.  Though a soccer match took place 
between SDSM and VMRO prior to the 2008 parliamentary elections, 
such a match between Albanian parties is new. 
 
¶14. (SBU) In a March 13 meeting, the mayoral candidates in Aracinovo 
-- the predominantly ethnic Albanian municipality near Skopje where 
a person was killed in election violence in 2008 -- all pledged 
their commitment to free, fair, and peaceful elections.  DPA's 
candidate complained that DUI has torn 500 of his posters and that 
he may not even bother putting up more.  However, he continued, DPA 
leader Thaci has sent down clear orders that DPA will not respond to 
or carry out any "provocations." 
 
¶15. (SBU) In Lipkovo, also on March 13, DUI, DPA, and ND candidates 
told the Ambassador over a convivial lunch that they have agreed to 
their own code of conduct for the election campaign.  This was one 
of the few meetings where a candidate did not complain about posters 
being pulled down, though the ND and DPA candidates did express 
concern that the DUI campaign HQ was only 50 meters away from a 
polling station.  The MEC deputy chairman confirmed that under the 
election law DUI would be required to remove all campaign posters 
from the HQ's exterior on election day. 
 
¶16. (SBU) Finally, in Kumanovo, SDSM Mayor Zoran Damjanovski 
orchestrated not only a chummy coffee at a local eatery but also a 
very public stroll through the city's downtown with him plus all six 
other candidates.  At an NDI public forum at which the Ambassador 
spoke, the candidates all sat front and center and gave their 
personal pledge for an honorable campaign. 
 
Comment: Cautiously Optimistic 
------------------------------ 
 
¶17. (SBU) While we are by no means out of the woods yet, the 
consensus among all parties, the press, and the international 
community is that the election campaign -- while hardly perfect -- 
is a significant improvement over last year.  Even if this holds 
true on the first election day, the authorities here still face the 
major logistical challenge of administering presidential and 
municipal elections simultaneously, the first time this has been 
done here.  Scenes of chaos at polling stations -- not caused by 
thuggery but simply incompetence -- would not present a pretty 
picture here.  Nonetheless, our pre-election assessment is that 
conditions are in place for successful elections. 
 
REEKER