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Viewing cable 09SEOUL442, SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; March 20, 2009

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09SEOUL442 2009-03-20 07:46 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Seoul
VZCZCXRO5158
OO RUEHGH
DE RUEHUL #0442/01 0790746
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 200746Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY SEOUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3667
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 8283
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC//DDI/OEA//
RHHMUNA/USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI//FPA//
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC//DB-Z//
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 9354
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5439
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 5544
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 0434
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 4060
RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI 3055
RUEHGP/AMEMBASSY SINGAPORE 6290
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0674
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 2058
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1089
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1710
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 08 SEOUL 000442 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US
SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; March 20, 2009 
 
TOP HEADLINES 
------------- 
 
Chosun Ilbo 
Current Chief of a High Prosecutor's Office Allegedly Received Money 
from Taekwang Industrial Chairman Park Yeon-cha 
 
JoongAng Ilbo, Dong-a Ilbo, Segye Ilbo, 
 Seoul Shinmun, All TVs 
North Korea Detains Two U.S. Female Journalists 
 
Hankook Ilbo 
College Entrance Exam Scores to be Disclosed by Region 
 
Hankyoreh Shinmun 
ROKG Mulls Full Participation in Proliferation Security Initiative 
(PSI) If North Korea Launches "Satellite" 
 
 
DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS 
--------------------- 
 
According to a high-ranking ROKG official, the ROKG is considering 
fully participating in the U.S.-led Proliferation Security 
Initiative (PSI) aimed at stopping the proliferation of weapons of 
mass destruction, if North Korea pushes ahead with launching a 
"satellite" between April 4 and 8 as it mentioned in its 
notification.(Hankyoreh) 
 
This ROKG move, if implemented, would likely spark a strong backlash 
from North Korea and China and would have considerable implications 
for the political situation on the Korean Peninsula. (Hankyoreh) 
 
The Yemeni government said on March 18 that the second bombing 
attack on a Korean convoy earlier in the day had specifically 
targeted Koreans. The ROKG, however, cautioned yesterday against 
reaching that conclusion, saying that it is still too early to 
predict if it was specifically aimed at ROK citizens or foreign 
nationals in general. (All) 
 
 
INTERNATIONAL NEWS 
------------------ 
 
According to sources knowledgeable about North Korean affairs, two 
U.S. female journalists were detained by the North Korean military 
on March 17 while working on a project about North Korean refugees 
near the China-North Korea border. (All) 
 
Some newspapers report that Washington is calling for the immediate 
release of the journalists through the "New York Channel" with North 
Korea but that Pyongyang remains silent. (Chosun, Hankook, 
Hankyoreh, Segye, Seoul) 
 
This incident would likely serve as a "touchstone" for future 
U.S.-North Korea relations. Given that there is a high likelihood 
that Washington might send a delegation to Pyongyang to negotiate 
their release, this incident might be a "turning point" in resuming 
dialogue between the two countries, depending on how they would 
resolve the incident. (Chosun, JoongAng, Dong-a, Hankyoreh, Seoul, 
all TVs) 
 
According to the Chosun Sinbo, a Japan-based, pro-North Korea 
newspaper, North Korea will reject the Six-Party Talks on its 
nuclear programs if the U.S. sanctions it over its "satellite" 
launch. (Segye) 
 
 
MEDIA ANALYSIS 
-------------- 
 
-Detained U.S. Journalists 
 
SEOUL 00000442  002 OF 008 
 
 
-------------------------- 
 
North Korea's March 17 detention of two U.S. female journalists 
received wide coverage.  Citing sources knowledgeable about North 
Korean affairs, the ROK media reported that the two American 
journalists were arrested after crossing into North Korea to report 
about North Korean refugees at the North Korea-China border. 
Conservative Chosun Ilbo, moderate Hankook Ilbo, left-leaning 
Hankyoreh Shinmun, conservative Segye Ilbo and moderate Seoul 
Shinmun reported that Washington is calling for the immediate 
release of the journalists through the "New York Channel" with North 
Korea but that the communist state remains silent. 
 
Most of the ROK media took note of the fact that the U.S. sent a 
special envoy to North Korea when a U.S. military pilot and an 
American citizen were detained in the North in 1994 and in 1996, 
respectively, and speculated that, in similar fashion, this incident 
might also be a "turning point" in resuming dialogue between the two 
countries, depending on how they would resolve this incident.  Most 
of the media viewed this incident as a "touchstone" for future 
U.S.-North Korea relations.  Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo headlined 
its story: "Will (North Korea's) Detention of Female Journalists 
Lead to Improved U.S.-North Korea Relations?"  Conservative Dong-a 
Ilbo's headline read: "An Accident? Or a Premeditated Kidnapping?; 
North Korea Wins 'New Card' for Negotiations with the U.S." 
 
Chosun Ilbo editorialized: "If this incident is resolved through 
U.S. - North Korea negotiations, like in the past, those 
negotiations would mark the first since the launch of the Obama 
Administration.  In this regard, this incident might serve to change 
the North's recent hard-line stance.  North Korea should immediately 
release the two U.S. journalists.  If it detains them for a long 
period of time while accusing them of spying, as it did in the past, 
it would turn U.S. public opinion against the North." 
 
Dong-a Ilbo editorialized: "North Korea might attempt to use the 
detention as a political bargaining tool.  However, the North should 
not turn a humanitarian issue into a political matter.  It should 
accurately clarify why the reporters were detained.  Whatever the 
reason, since their identities have been confirmed, the North should 
release the journalists as soon as possible without any conditions 
attached.  Otherwise, it is as if North Korea is proclaiming to the 
world that it is a dictatorship with many things to hide." 
Hankyoreh Shinmun's editorial, meanwhile, stated: "What is important 
now is the willingness of the two countries (the U.S. and North 
Korea) to talk. Even though the U.S. is still reviewing its North 
Korea policy, talks should continue between the U.S. and North 
Korea.  This detention incident can be a good opportunity (for 
dialogue.)  In 1996, when a Korean American illegally entered North 
Korea, Washington sent Bill Richardson, then-U.S.  Congressman, to 
Pyongyang as a special envoy to resolve the case, and that paved the 
way for the two countries to improve bilateral ties.  This incident 
could also turn the situation around if they have the will (to 
talk.)" 
 
-North Korea 
----------- 
 
JoongAng Ilbo's Senior Columnist Kim Young-hie observed: "The U.S. 
often writes in its official documents that North Korea is a nuclear 
state, and then steps back if the ROK resists.  It is becoming an 
irreversible fact that North Korea is indeed a nuclear state.  U.S. 
intelligence authorities are slowly leaning toward accepting the 
story that the missile North Korea plans to launch is a satellite. 
We believe North Korea's weapons development will isolate it 
further.  But if the U.S. takes a realistic stance without giving 
any notice, we may be pushed into a corner regarding North Korea and 
we may experience difficulties if we have a different stance from 
the U.S.  Restoring South-North Korean relations is the appropriate 
way to free ourselves from these worries." 
 
Hankyoreh Shinmun front-paged a report citing a high-ranking ROKG 
official as saying yesterday that the ROKG is considering fully 
participating in the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative 
 
SEOUL 00000442  003 OF 008 
 
 
(PSI) aimed at stopping the proliferation of weapons of mass 
destruction if North Korea pushes ahead with launching a "satellite" 
between April 4 and 8 as it mentioned in its notification.  The 
report went on to say that this ROKG move, if implemented, would 
likely spark a strong backlash from North Korea and China and would 
have considerable implications for the political situation on the 
Korean Peninsula. 
 
Segye Ilbo, meanwhile, reported on a March 19 report by the Chosun 
Sinbo, a Japan-based, pro-North Korea newspaper, which said that 
North Korea will reject the Six-Party Talks on its nuclear programs 
if the U.S. sanctions it over its "satellite" launch. 
 
 
OPINIONS/EDITORIALS 
------------------- 
 
Pyongyang's Power Play 
 (JoongAng Ilbo, March 20, 2009, Page 47) 
 
By Senior Columnist Kim Young-hie 
 
Whether Kim Jong-il muddles through with a crisis management system 
that relies on the military is directly related to how power will be 
handed over to his successor. 
 
Let's time-travel back to 40 years ago in North Korea, when it was 
ruled by Kim Il Sung. On Jan. 21, 1968, a band of armed North Korean 
guerillas got within 500 meters of the main gate of the Blue House. 
Two days later, the North captured the U.S.S. Pueblo and its 83 crew 
members in waters off Wonsan.  On Oct. 30, 120 armed North Korean 
spies infiltrated Uljin and Samcheok on the east coast.  These 
ventures were led by soldiers who used to be partisans and ended up 
in high positions in the political party and the government.  That 
is the origin of the North's "military-first" policy. 
 
The hard-line policy of those former adventurists failed.  Kim Il 
Sung held them accountable and purged them.  Then, international 
politics changed drastically, in a way that would work out well for 
Kim.  The Richard Nixon Administration, which took office in 1969, 
opened an era of detente through Ping-Pong Diplomacy.  On July 4, 
1972, South and North Korea issued a Joint Communique.  By purging 
the first generation of partisans, an obstacle to appointing Kim 
Jong-il as his father's successor was removed. 
 
Kim Jong-il's rule is also dependent on military-first politics. 
The military puts a priority on the security of the regime over the 
economy.  It needs nuclear weapons and long-range missiles.  There 
are various opinions about the reason for North Korea's latest 
provocations, such as the opening and closing of the route to 
Kaesong and the announcement of its plans to launch a long-range 
missile in April.  Some of the aggression is aimed at taming the Lee 
Myung-bak Administration; others say it is to pressure the Barack 
Obama Administration into holding negotiations with Pyongyang. 
 
But none of these explanations are good enough.  Some suggest 
another opinion, one that takes into consideration the current 
situation inside the North Korean regime.  This theory is worth 
paying attention to. 
 
Whether Kim Jong-il successfully muddles through with a crisis 
management system that relies on the military is directly related to 
how power will be handed over to his successor.  The key question is 
whether he will hand over power to one of his sons after 
successfully fumbling through with military-first politics, just as 
his own father did.  However, whichever way he chooses, the military 
will never give up its obsession with nuclear weapons and missiles. 
Kim must also know that in order to sustain his regime, it is much 
better to arm his state with these weapons than to give them up in 
return for aid from the outside that may turn out to be a Trojan 
horse. 
 
Since North Korea conducted missile and nuclear weapons tests in 
2006, the means available to the U.S. with which to denuclearize the 
 
SEOUL 00000442  004 OF 008 
 
 
North have become extremely limited.  The U.S. stance on the nuclear 
situation in the North has retreated to this: "North Korea has 
nuclear weapons but the United States will not accept it."  U.S. 
officials can say a hundred times that they won't tolerate a nuclear 
North Korea, but their words won't be persuasive. 
 
If North Korea succeeds in launching a satellite next month that 
demonstrates long-range ballistic missile technology, the argument 
for a pre-emptive attack on the North's nuclear and missile 
facilities will become meaningless.  Even if United Nations Security 
Council Resolution 1718 is enhanced, its efficacy is doubtful.  Some 
will maintain we should participate in the U.S. missile defense 
system, but the argument will not go far because of the possible 
burden on Korea-China relations. 
 
We do not have the luxury of clinging to a minor issue like the 
Kaesong Industrial Complex.  We need to consider Kaesong and tourism 
at Mount Kumgang within a bigger framework.  There is no time to 
waste discussing who is to blame for North Korea's weapons 
development.  Whether the U.S. and the international community 
accept it or not, if North Korea becomes a nuclear state and 
develops the technology to launch ballistic missiles anytime it 
wants, the structure of inter-Korean relations will change 
completely.  A strategy of waiting only wastes time. 
 
For the Obama Administration, there seems no other way than to have 
high-level talks with the North and to push or entice Pyongyang to 
implement at least the three-step denuclearization process agreed to 
in the Six-Party Talks. There is a possibility that the United 
States will be satisfied with nonproliferation of North Korea's 
nuclear weapons and missiles. 
 
The U.S. often writes in its official documents that North Korea is 
a nuclear state, and then steps back if the ROK resists.  It is 
becoming an irreversible fact that North Korea is indeed a nuclear 
state.  U.S. intelligence authorities are slowly leaning toward 
accepting the story that the missile North Korea plans to launch is 
a satellite. 
 
We believe North Korea's weapons development will isolate it 
further.  But if the U.S. takes a realistic stance without giving 
any notice, we may be pushed into a corner regarding North Korea and 
we may experience difficulties from having a different stance from 
the United States.  Restoring South-North Korean relations is the 
appropriate way to be free from these worries. 
 
(This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is 
identical to the Korean version.) 
 
 
Detention of U.S. Journalists: Crisis Or Opportunity? 
(Hankyoreh Shinmun, March 20, 2009, Page 23) 
 
Two American journalists were detained by North Korean officials on 
Tuesday while in the area of the Tumen River, which forms part of 
the border between China and North Korea.  Situations like this do 
not happen often. Getting the two released should be of the greatest 
urgency, regardless of what events led to their detention. 
 
Relations between North Korea and the U.S. are not especially poor 
right now, but the two countries are in an intense battle of nerves. 
 The U.S. is saying it plans to push for United Nations sanctions if 
the North launches a satellite early next month as scheduled.  If 
sanctions are indeed enacted, it is possible relations will quickly 
grow cold.  The North just the other day suddenly refused American 
food aid, and we interpret that to be a preemptive move against the 
anticipated sanctions, leaving the U.S. without the ability to halt 
food aid as part of any sanction packages.  Just this week the North 
went so far as to temporarily block South Korean access to the 
Kaesong Industrial Complex.  Having anything go wrong with the 
physical well-being of the two journalists in such a situation could 
make it particularly hard to find a way forward for U.S.-North 
Korean relations. 
 
 
SEOUL 00000442  005 OF 008 
 
 
The situation is of course not completely discouraging.  The U.S. is 
making it clear it intends to work hard with the Six-Party Talks 
even if Pyongyang does launch a satellite.  U.S. President Barack 
Obama is pursuing high-level, direct talks with the North, as he has 
promised to do for some time now.  The North, too, is placing 
considerable hope in the new U.S. Administration.  Aside from the 
issue of the satellite launch, neither the North nor the U.S. has 
any reason to deliberately make matters worse. 
 
What is important now is the willingness of the two countries (the 
U.S. and North Korea) to talk. Even though the U.S. is still 
reviewing its North Korea policy, talks should continue between the 
U.S. and North Korea.  This detention incident can be a good 
opportunity (for dialogue.)  In 1996, when a Korean American 
illegally entered North Korea, Washington sent Bill Richardson, 
then-U.S.  Congressman, to Pyongyang as a special envoy to resolve 
the case, and that paved the way for the two countries to improve 
bilateral ties.  This incident could also turn the situation around 
if they have the will (to talk.) 
 
There continues to be negative news about North Korea.  The 
countries participating in the Six-Party Talks need to accept that 
these things can occur as the talks go through a transition period. 
They need to avoid losing sight of the larger picture (of the 
direction of) the talks by not jumping to react to individual 
incidents.  The principle of (reaching for) a peaceful resolution to 
the nuclear and missile issue through the Six-Party Talks must not 
change.  This is a time when all countries involved need to maintain 
balance and look far down the road while exercising wisdom in 
dealing with the situation in a composed and exacting manner. 
 
(This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is 
identical to the Korean version.) 
 
 
ΒΆN. Korea Must Free U.S. Reporters Now 
(Chosun Ilbo, March 20, 2009, Page 39) 
 
Two U.S. journalists, working for the news website Current TV, were 
taken into custody by North Korean soldiers on Tuesday while working 
on a story about North Korean refugees along the Tumen (or Duman) 
River, which runs along the border between North Korea and China. 
The two have been out of contact for three days. 
 
One of them is a Korean-American and the other a Chinese-American, 
and it is unclear in what circumstances they were taken by North 
Korean soldiers.   Seoul and Washington believe North Korean 
authorities have detained the two. 
 
Current TV is a website created by former U.S. vice president Al 
Gore in 2005 and has covered the world's trouble spots and other 
dangerous areas. 
 
Since 1990, there have been a few incidents where U.S. citizens were 
detained for a prolonged period of time after accidentally crossing 
over the North Korean border.  In December 1994, chief warrant 
officer Bobby Hall, whose Army helicopter was shot down after 
accidentally straying into North Korea, was released by North Korean 
authorities after 13 days in captivity.   In August 1996, Evan 
Hunziker, whose mother was South Korean and father American, was 
detained by North Korean authorities for almost three months after 
he swam across the Yalu River into the communist country. 
 
In both cases, then Congressman and incumbent New Mexico Governor 
Bill Richardson won the release of the Americans following long 
negotiations with North Korean officials.  In July 1999, a 
Korean-American woman in her 50s was caught crossing over into North 
Korea from China.  She was released about a month later after 
negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang. 
 
If this incident is resolved through U.S. - North Korea 
negotiations, like in the past, those negotiations would mark the 
first since the launch of the Obama Administration.  In this regard, 
this incident might serve to change the North's recent hard-line 
 
SEOUL 00000442  006 OF 008 
 
 
stance.   North Korea is preparing to launch a rocket despite 
warnings from the U.S. and the international community.  It declined 
a visit by U.S. Special (Representative) Stephen Bosworth and has 
rejected American food aid. 
 
If North Korea keeps behaving this way, even the Obama 
administration, which made clear it wants to talk to the North, will 
have no choice but to take a harder line as well.  If North Korea 
pushes ahead with the missile launch, it will gain nothing but UN 
sanctions, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula will become 
more unstable. 
 
North Korea should immediately release the two U.S. journalists.  If 
it detains them for a long period of time while accusing them of 
spying, as it did in the past, it would turn U.S. public opinion 
against the North.  It is an internationally deplorable act to hold 
journalists captive.  The appropriate thing for Pyongyang to do 
would be to release them immediately and show the world a new side. 
 
 
(This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is 
identical to the Korean version.) 
 
 
Detained U.S. Journalists Are Not Subjects for Political Deal 
(Dong-a Ilbo, March 20, 2009, Page 31) 
 
North Korea has detained two female U.S. journalists working near 
its border with China.  The New York Times Reported that the 
detainees work for the online media outlet Current TV.  The Times 
also said that one of them is a Chinese-American and the other is a 
Korean-American.   The detention adds to the complexity of the 
current situation.  Tensions between the ROK and North Korea, and 
the U.S. and North Korea have been rising due to the U.S.-ROK joint 
military exercise "Key Resolve" and the North's preparations for a 
missile launch. 
 
Some sources say that when the journalists were videotaping a scene 
near the North's border, North Korean soldiers crossed the border 
into China and took them into custody.  Also, there is a possibility 
that they accidently crossed into North Korea.  It is not yet 
certain what exactly happened.  But if North Korean soldiers 
deliberately crossed the border into China to arrest the 
journalists, this infringes on China's territory and sovereignty. 
Therefore, this may spark serious diplomatic conflicts between North 
Korea and China. 
 
In 1996, North Korea arrested a Korean-American, who s-e-c-r-e-t-l-y 
entered North Korea across the Yalu River, as a spy.  He was 
released three months later, after then-U.S. Congressman Bill 
Richardson negotiated with North Korea.  Now, North Korea might 
attempt to use this detention as a political bargaining tool. 
However, North Korea should not turn a humanitarian issue into a 
political matter. 
 
The U.S. called for early release of the journalists through the 
"New York Channel" with North Korea just after the incident broke 
out.  North Korea should clarify why the reporters were detained. 
Whatever the reason, since their identities have been confirmed, the 
North should release the journalists as soon as possible without any 
conditions attached.  Otherwise, it is as if North Korea is 
proclaiming to the world that it is a dictatorship with many things 
to hide. 
 
 
Why should Koreans be Targets of Terrorism? 
(Hankyoreh Shinmun, March 20, 2009, Page 23) 
 
In the wake of a terrorist act that cost the lives of four ROK 
tourists on March 15, a bomb went off near a convoy carrying 
ministry officials and families of the victims on March 18.  It 
seems that these terrorist acts are aimed at ROK tourists.  An ROKG 
official said that we should consider the possibility that the 
attacks may be specifically targeting our people. 
 
SEOUL 00000442  007 OF 008 
 
 
 
It is urgent that we accurately analyze why ROK citizens became a 
target of al-Qaida, and countermeasures should be devised 
accordingly.  The fact that al-Qaida is an international Islamist 
terrorist organization further stokes concerns among ROK people. 
 
So far, the ROK has been in line with U.S. policy on the Middle East 
and deployed its troops to Iraq and Afghanistan.  But we experienced 
tragic kidnappings in 2004 and in 2007.  At that time, kidnappers 
called on the ROKG to pull its troops out of the regions.  Now, the 
ROK has no military presence in those regions.   However, the new 
U.S. administration wants ROK forces to be dispatched again to 
Afghanistan in a bid to weed out al-Qaida terrorist organizations. 
Therefore, some speculate that terrorists targeted Koreans in Yemen 
in order to ignite opposition at home and abroad to the troop 
deployment to Afghanistan. 
 
Of course a country's foreign policy should not be affected by 
terrorist threats.  But we need to review whether our policy toward 
the Middle East has been appropriate.  There are signs that the 
Obama Administration may change its policy on the Middle East. 
However, the former Bush Administration's antagonistic policy toward 
Islamic countries generated a host of terrorists.  It seems that the 
ROKG, which stood by this policy of the Bush Administration, put our 
innocent people at risk.  In this situation, it is unreasonable that 
some ROKG officials call for re-deployment of ROK forces in 
Afghanistan. 
 
What also worries us is that the second terrorist act erupted in a 
region with relatively stable security. The ROKG should urge Yemen 
authorities to take special measures to prevent terrorist attacks 
targeting Koreans.  A government bears responsibility to protect its 
citizens wherever they live. 
 
 
FEATURES 
-------- 
 
ROK's Expanded PSI Participation Could Lead To Military 
Confrontation Between Two Koreas 
(Hankyoreh Shinmun, March 20, 2009, Page 3) 
 
By Reporter Son Won-je 
 
Former government participated in it as only an observer to avoid 
further fracture inter-Korean relations. 
 
The ROKG is toying with the idea of increasing its participation in 
the Proliferation Security Initiative on weapons of mass destruction 
if North Korea launches a projectile.  A core government official 
said, "Whether it's a missile or a satellite, what North Korea is 
launching is a weapon of mass destruction," adding that "because the 
PSI was formed in the interests of preventing the proliferation of 
WMDs, there is a growing need" to join in efforts for military 
security. 
 
The ROK is currently participating in the PSI in the status of 
observer, engaging in only five of the PSI's eight activities.  This 
follows repeated requests in early 2006 from the George W. Bush 
Administration. Since then, in spite of constant calls by the United 
States for expanded participation, it has held off on the remaining 
three activities, namely providing material support during 
interdiction exercises within the region, providing material support 
for such exercises outside the region, and formally declaring its 
participation. 
 
Full participation in the PSI could easily lead to disaster in 
inter-Korean relations.  If a vessel suspected of carrying 
WMD-related materials such as nuclear substances enters the 
territorial waters of a nation formally participating in the PSI, 
that nation is required to mobilize its military and coast guard, 
stop the vessel and search it.  If this search turns up such 
materials, the nation takes measures such as confiscation and 
expulsion. 
 
SEOUL 00000442  008 OF 008 
 
 
 
North Korea is a major target of the PSI, and if it objects to these 
measures, it could lead to an armed clash between the ROK and North 
Korea.  In an October 2006 research report entitled "North Korea and 
the Proliferation Security Initiative on Weapons of Mass 
Destruction," the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses stated that 
"North Korea's response to the PSI will be offensive and 
omnidirectional."  The report also predicted that there was a strong 
possibility North Korea would "apply military pressure, for example, 
mobilizing its military might to attempt provocations at the 
Northern Limit Line, in order to hinder the participation of the 
ROK."  And on October 27, 2006, while he was serving as First Vice 
Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade, current Minister for Foreign 
Affairs and Trade Yu Myung-hwan said at the National Assembly that 
"If we carry out the PSI on weapons of mass destruction in the 
waters around the Korean Peninsula, there is a strong possibility of 
a military clash due to the situation of military confrontation and, 
as a result, we are not participating in it." 
 
Material support during interdiction exercises within and outside 
the region could also give the appearance of the ROK's cooperation 
in a blockade of North Korea.  If multinational military and coast 
guard vessels congregate to search suspicious vessels in the ROK's 
territorial waters adjacent to those of North Korea or in the 
surrounding sea area, North Korea could mobilize its naval forces in 
response.  It was for this reason that the Roh Moo-hyun 
Administration drew a clear line when the possibility of full ROK 
participation in the PSI was examined as a plan for sanctions 
against the North immediately after its 2006 nuclear test.  "Our 
policy is to decide the level of our measures related to expanded 
participation in the PSI under the principle of not taking measures 
aimed at a maritime blockade of North Korea," said then Cheong Wa 
Dae National Security Advisor Song Min-soon at the time. 
 
But changes in this current have been detected since the Lee 
Myung-bak Administration took office.  It began in January 2008 when 
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade stated in an operational 
report for the presidential transition team that there was "a need 
to examine formal participation as a PSI member country."  And 
Minister of National Defense Lee Sang-hee hinted at an intent to 
participate fully during a National Assembly inquiry on February 16, 
saying, "With North Korea developing long-range missiles and nuclear 
capabilities, the time has come to reexamine participating 
militarily in the PSI." 
 
Opposition parties have pointed out the need for circumspect 
measures in consideration of inter-Korean relations.  Lawmaker Moon 
Hak-jin, a Democratic Party member of the National Assembly's 
Foreign Affairs, Trade and Unification Committee, said that there 
was "a sense that the government is rushing into things."  Moon 
stated the need to "deal with the situation after giving it deep 
consideration." 
 
Democratic Labor Party spokesperson Woo Wi-young criticized what she 
called the "fire-back tactics" of using the PSI in response to North 
Korea's satellite launch, saying that it "doesn't help the tense 
situation on the Korean Peninsula at all." 
 
And New Progressive Party spokesman Kim Jong-cheol urged the 
government to withdraw its plans to examine participation in the 
PSI, saying, "What is needed now is not the PSI but sincere dialogue 
to relieve the hardening of inter-Korean relations." 
 
(This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is 
identical to the Korean version.) 
 
 
STEPHENS