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C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000202 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS 
TAGS: PGOV EC
SUBJECT: ELECTION CAMPAIGN KICKOFF CONTENTIOUS 
 
REF: 08 QUITO 616 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Heather Hodges for reason 1.4 (D) 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  T...




id: 198604
date: 3/24/2009 17:31
refid: 09QUITO202
origin: Embassy Quito
classification: CONFIDENTIAL
destination: 08QUITO616
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C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000202 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS 
TAGS: PGOV EC
SUBJECT: ELECTION CAMPAIGN KICKOFF CONTENTIOUS 
 
REF: 08 QUITO 616 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Heather Hodges for reason 1.4 (D) 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Two weeks into the 45-day campaign period 
leading up to the April 26 elections, the National Electoral 
Council is wrestling with controlling government propaganda. 
President Correa will likely win in the first round, but he 
is not assured the strong National Assembly majority and 
local wins he seeks.  End Summary. 
 
THE STAKES 
 
¶2. (SBU) The 45-day campaign period started March 10 and is 
scheduled to end on April 23, three days before the 
elections.  At stake are the offices of president and vice 
president, 124 National Assembly seats, 46 prefects and vice 
prefects (who govern provinces), 221 mayors, and 1,581 city 
councilors.  Five Andean Parliament members and 3,985 members 
of rural parish boards will be elected June 14, together with 
the presidential second round, if needed. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Many opposition parties appear to believe that 
mounting presidential campaigns will help their candidates 
for other offices even if there is no chance of beating 
Correa.  Eight candidates are running for the presidency 
after two were disqualified.  President Correa's top 
opponents are:  1) banana magnate Alvaro Noboa of the 
National Action Institutional Renewal Party, who out-polled 
Correa in the first round in 2006, and 2) former president 
Lucio Gutierrez of the Patriotic Society Party, a retired 
army colonel who took part in a coup d'etat that toppled 
President Mahuad in 2000, was elected to the presidency in 
2002, and ousted from office in 2005 after widespread popular 
discontent.  Correa also has opposition on his left, notably 
Marta Roldos, heading a coalition between her Ethics and 
Democracy Movement and the Democratic Pole Movement. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Candidate selection was hard fought within Correa's 
Proud and Sovereign Fatherland (PAIS) movement due to the 
range of views (from the center to far left) and different 
groups.  The PAIS political bureau chose the candidates for 
some key positions.  For the rest, PAIS held open primaries 
on January 25, but turnout was quite modest and the process 
was plagued with irregularities, including ballots not 
printed correctly and provinces where the ballots never 
arrived.  In three provinces voting was suspended.  Those 
irregularities translated into discontent of candidates, with 
some of them publicly questioning the process.  In response, 
PAIS applied sanctions, ranging from disqualifying 
candidacies to expelling members from PAIS.  Other parties 
held closed primaries or none at all. 
 
CAMPAIGN RULES AND TRANSGRESSORS 
 
¶5. (SBU) In an attempt to give all candidates the same chance 
of being heard, the 2008 constitution's transition regime 
established public financing of the 2009 campaign for 
advertising in the written press, television, radio, and 
street signs.  Candidates are prohibited from using their own 
funds for advertising or giving out campaign gifts or 
donations.  The new National Electoral Council, an interim 
body appointed in October 2008, will disburse $35 million for 
election advertising. 
 
¶6. (SBU) President Correa's Saturday radio and television 
addresses are continuing during the campaign.  The National 
Electoral Council has stated that no rules are broken as long 
as Correa does not request that the audience vote for or 
against a candidate or political party.  The National 
Electoral Council's rationale is that the broadcasts are not 
financed with public funds because stations voluntarily air 
them.  However, Correa has not hesitated during these 
addresses in making comments aimed at undermining his 
opponents in the presidential race and making clear that 
voting for his movement would allow the government to make 
further progress with the "citizen revolution." 
 
¶7. (SBU) While Correa is not the only candidate who has been 
accused of violating the campaign rules, he is the one who 
has the most public exposure and impact.  His opponents and 
many commentators criticize this advantage.  Jose Toledo, 
former News Vice President for the three television channels 
seized by the government last year from the Isaias brothers 
(Reftel), resigned on February 27 arguing that some 
candidates expected priority access to television programs. 

¶8. (SBU) In the face of mounting criticism, the National 
Electoral Council approved rules on March 4 aimed at 
controlling unlawful campaigning.  During the campaign 
period, candidates may appear in the radio, television, and 
press only if it is financed with allocated public funds, 
subject to fines for violations.  All official government 
communication is prohibited 48 hours before the elections, 
thus supposedly ruling out Correa's April 25 TV/radio address. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The dispute over campaign rules came to a head on 
March 6 when the National Electoral Council imposed a $650 
dollar fine on the Correa presidential campaign for a 
government TV spot extolling the citizen revolution, to the 
tune of "Hey Jude."  The government said the advertisement's 
purpose was to promote optimism, but with its frequent use of 
the PAIS slogan and images of Correa on posters in the 
background, the National Electoral Council considered it 
campaigning.  Correa appealed the fine, arguing that he did 
not appear in the advertisement.  The mastermind behind the 
Correa government's constant advertising, Administration and 
Communications Secretary Vinicio Alvarado, met March 12 with 
the National Electoral Council to discuss official 
advertising and agreed to suspend the controversial 
advertisement during the campaign.  He also agreed not to use 
the slogans "the fatherland now belongs to everyone" and the 
"citizen revolution" in other government propaganda.  Despite 
this agreement, the "Hey Jude" ad continued to air for two 
more days. 
 
POLLING DATA SHOWS MANY RACES COMPETITIVE 
 
¶10. (SBU) Three polling firms give Correa a lead of about 40 
points over his opponents.  Santiago Perez, who is considered 
the government's pollster, estimates that Correa will receive 
53% of the vote, followed by Lucio Gutierrez with 13% and 
Alvaro Noboa with 11%.  Pollsters differ as to whether the 
runner-up will be Gutierrez or Noboa, but in either scenario 
a runoff election appears unlikely.  Under Ecuador's new 
constitution, a runoff is not necessary if the winner reaches 
at least 40% of valid votes and comes out more than 10 points 
ahead of the runner-up, or if the winner receives more than 
50% of valid votes. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Pollster Santiago Cuesta believes that Correa has 
popular support, but that such support does not translate 
into votes for other PAIS candidates.  Opinion Profiles 
reported 68% of those surveyed intended to support the 
reelection of Guayaquil's Mayor Nebot, compared to 16% for 
Correa's candidate, Maria de los Angeles Duarte.  In Guayas 
province, opposition candidate Jimmy Jairala was reported to 
have at least a 10-point lead in the race for prefect over 
Correa's sister Pierina.  In Quito, the campaign for the 
mayor's office is competitive.  In Cuenca (Ecuador's third 
largest city), the PAIS candidate is in a tight race with the 
incumbent mayor.  The incumbents in other large coastal 
cities, such as Machala and Manta, are polling strongly 
against their PAIS rivals. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶12. (C) Correa's bid for reelection, in spite of a struggling 
economy, will likely be successful in the first round.  His 
government programs to benefit the poor, appeals to 
nationalism, and disproportionate access to the mass media 
make him a very tough competitor.  The opposition, which has 
not been able to regroup after the last four lost elections, 
does not offer a compelling alternative on the national 
level.  We credit the National Electoral Council for taking a 
stab at leveling the playing field.  National Assembly seats 
and local offices are what is really at play. 
 
HODGES 

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