VZCZCXRO7709
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHSA #0393/01 0621020
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 031020Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7534
INFO RUCPDC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0949
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 0677
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0810
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1706
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 0958
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 0768
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1542
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0233

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PRETORIA 000393 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE PLEASE PASS USAID 
STATE PLEASE PASS USGS 
DEPT FOR AF/S, ISN, EEB/ESC AND CBA 
DOE FOR T.SPERL, G.PERSON, A.BIENAWSKI, M.SCOTT, L.PARKER 
DOC FOR ITA/DIEMOND 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ENRG EMIN EPET SENV BEXP EINV SF
SUBJECT: AFRICAN MINING INDABA WATCHING GLOBAL MARKETS WITH GROWING 
CONCERN 
 
REF: A) DURBAN 19 
B) PRETORIA 228 
C) 08 PRETORIA 2733 
D) 08 PRETORIA 2732 
E) 08 PRETORIA 315 
 
Not for Internet Distribution 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: The 14th African Mining Indaba took place in Cape 
Town February 9-12 under the cloud of an unprecedented global 
commodity downturn and economic malaise, in great contrast to last 
year's celebration of the commodity boom (Ref E).  Last year's worry 
of regional power shortages has greatly diminished, but regulatory 
uncertainty remains a significant issue in South Africa and the 
region.  Investment and credit in mining are scarce on the 
continent.  Observers see signs of some recovery in China, whose 
demand has been the key driver for mining investment.  End Summary. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
Mining Industry Hits Rock Bottom - Indaba Views 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Minerals/Energy Officer and Specialist attended the 
African Mining Indaba February 9-12 in Cape Town.  The Indaba is one 
of the world's largest mining investment conventions, attended by 
ambassadors, ministers, and company CEOs from all parts of the 
world.  This year's Indaba's consensus view was that Chinese 
interest in resource deals in Africa is sustained, despite its 
downturn in demand (septel).  Refs A-D provide recent reporting on 
how the downturn has adversely affected mining and mineral 
processing in South Africa.  Ref E analyzed last year's Indaba back 
in the commodity boom and frenzy, when scarce power supply was the 
issue of the moment. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Attendance at this year's African Mining Indaba was down 
one fifth from the record boom-time attendance last year (from 5000 
to 4000).  Conference Director Tim Wood told delegates that 
companies with market values totaling $1.3 trillion last year were 
represented at the Indaba this year and that this year their value 
had plummeted to $560 billion.  Keynote speakers detailed the extent 
of weak global growth, particularly in the U.S. and China.  The 
global slowdown has in turn shriveled demand for basic commodities, 
with the exception of gold, which still draws investors seeking safe 
havens in turbulent times.  Some speakers pointed out signs of a 
hoped-for turn-around, particularly in China, and the observation 
that the mining industry had seen and overcome cyclical downturns 
many times before.  A cash-rich uranium prospecting company told 
Minerals Officer it was now easy to get appointments with bankers 
and he had to fend off desperate project promoters.  One delegate 
was quoted: "There are some hopeful people here with mines that 
never can be profitable, looking for financing that isn't there." 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Mining Minister Buyelwa Sonjica called on mining companies 
to hold off on retrenchments and warned that there would be no 
extensions for the end-April due-date for applications for new-order 
prospecting rights.  A recent ranking by mining consultancy Behre & 
Dolbean of the investment climate of 20 mining countries placed 
QDolbean of the investment climate of 20 mining countries placed 
South Africa nineteenth, largely because of uncertainties over 
security of mining rights.  An investment banker warned that 
sensitive black empowerment deals required under the mining charter 
and the accompanying Minerals and Petroleum Resource Development Act 
were in breach of debt covenants after a deterioration in company 
earnings and share prices.  (Note: Most BEE deals rely on dividend 
streams to pay interest on loans used to buy shares in companies. 
End Note.)   Minister of Finance Trevor Manuel provided a life-line 
of sorts with his Budget decision to delay by a year the 
implementation of mining royalties, based to a greater extent on 
turnover rather than income, which would lessen financial burdens on 
struggling mining companies. 
 
------------------------------- 
Every Cloud has a Silver Lining 
 
PRETORIA 00000393  002 OF 004 
 
 
------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Energy Minister Buyelwa Sonjica offered help to the 
stricken South African mining industry in her opening address to the 
Mining Indaba.  She stressed that her Department aimed to provide an 
enabling environment for industry to overcome the global economic 
slowdown, which she characterized as a "still unfolding process". 
Sonjica said South Africa must manage the current slowdown and then 
be prepared for the next commodity boom.  The Minister cited 
government infrastructure spending and the Department of Minerals 
and Energy task force that has been considering measures to reduce 
job losses.  Sonjica called on industry to use all means possible to 
avoid retrenchments.  She said she was committed to reviewing the 
Mining Charter to assure that efforts to transform the industry were 
making progress.  She admitted that Broad-Based Black Economic 
Empowerment provisions were not always yielding real broad-based 
transformation (that is, reaching beyond the usual BEE players.) 
Sonjica warned mining companies that they must submit applications 
for conversions of mining licenses under the Minerals and Petroleum 
Resource Development Act by April 30.  She emphasized the 
government's commitment to improving mine safety and securing 
greater downstream minerals beneficiation in South Africa.  Finally, 
Sonjica said South Africa had postponed - but not abandoned - its 
plans to build new nuclear power plants. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Minister of Finance Trevor Manuel announced a 12-month 
delay in imposing new tax royalties under the Minerals and Petroleum 
Resource Development Act, in a key contemporaneous budget 
announcement in Parliament.  This announcement recognized the 
difficult situation facing the mining sector and offered a temporary 
respite.  At the same time, Manuel announced increased 
infrastructure spending and support to Eskom.  On the Indaba 
margins, a rumor circulated that the Department of Minerals and 
Energy would be split into two to allow better planning in the two 
key sectors.  The Minister did not mention this in her speech to the 
Indaba. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Much of the discussion revolved around when the downturn 
would turn around.  Many speakers saw hopeful signs in China, but 
were pessimistic about the American market.  Anglo American South 
African Head Kuseni Dlamini subscribed to the rosy view that Africa 
could jump start the downturned global economy.  Rio Tinto Vice 
President Jean Chawapiwa-Puma said her company was focused on 
managing unprecedented difficulties, while preparing for the 
eventual upturn. 
 
------------------------- 
How Bad is it? Pretty Bad 
------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) The Indaba maintained the tradition of an early session on 
specific commodities.  Most commodity prices have fallen 50-70 
percent from 2008 highs, with the single exception of gold, which 
has maintained its value as a financial safe haven.  Base metals 
such as copper, zinc, and nickel have plummeted, such that many 
Qsuch as copper, zinc, and nickel have plummeted, such that many 
projects are now under water.  Platinum Group Metals' situation is 
tied to the lackluster American car market.  Platinum is far off its 
March 2008 peak of $2,276 per ounce, now floundering just over $900. 
 Many analysts saw tentative signs of improvement in markets, 
pointing out long-term resource challenges and destocking by 
consumers that will ultimately turn prices back.  Uranium suffers 
some volatility and weakness in its price, but some analysts were 
optimistic given limited supply and long-term demand for a growing 
number of nuclear power plants. 
 
---------------------------------- 
Diamonds Challenge - Power of Love 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  Diamond guru Chaim Even-Zaher said the diamond market's 
health was tied to the strength of the U.S. market.  He foresaw a 
dramatic drop of about 60 percent in rough diamonds in 2009. 
DeBeers Executive Director Stephen Cussier said there were too many 
 
PRETORIA 00000393  003 OF 004 
 
 
rough diamond stocks and debt in companies.  Nevertheless, he said 
DeBeers was positioned to weather the storm.  After the Indaba, 
Botswana-based Debswana announced that a number of significant mines 
were on "care and maintenance".  Both Even-Zaher and Cussier had a 
long-term positive take on diamond demand.  Even-Zaher said there 
would still be sex, love, marriage, divorce, and remarriage, all 
driving diamond demand.  The DeBeers officer said even in tough 
times, there was still love. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Gold Decoupled from other Commodities 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Gold stood out as an exceptional good news story at the 
Indaba, as its price -- alone among commodities -- has held its 
strength, as a safe haven.  One analyst said, "gold is as gold 
does," pointing out its special quality as a hybrid investment for 
storing value, apart from its pure commodity utility.  AngloGold 
Ashanti, Newmont, RandGold, Gold Fields, and Harmony all had bullish 
stories to tell about commitment to safety and their project 
pipelines.  AngloGold Ashanti proudly pointed out that their Mponeng 
mine had breached the previous deepest depth for mining of 3,777 
meters (visited by Energy Officer last year). 
 
------------------------------- 
Retreat of Resource Nationalism 
------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) International Finance Corporation Mining Division Head 
William Bulmer said, "The boom in the commodity prices led to a real 
resurgence in resource nationalism and participation in mining 
companies by governments across the world, including Africa."  He 
cited examples in the DRC, Zambia, and South Africa.  Bulmer said, 
"In this current market, resource nationalism will recede."  He said 
Africa should move away from nationalism and excessive intervention 
to attract investors at a time when metal prices are collapsing. 
 
---------------------------- 
Rome was not Burned in a Day 
--------------------------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) U.S. Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow Dr 
Russell Walter Meade emphasized that the world has seen and overcome 
economic crises before and this one would be no different.  He noted 
that "Rome was not burned in a day," as remarked by one Visigoth to 
another.  Meade characterized the current crisis as stemming from a 
"stupid banker crisis" (a frenzy of ill-advised lending and a 
profusion of financial instruments that out-stripped the ability to 
price underlying risk) and unprecedented imbalances between current 
account and trade surplus and deficit countries.  He said China in 
particular suffered from a bubble of excess manufacturing capacity. 
The result of the crisis that arose from these imbalances will be a 
substantial period of weak demand in commodities tied to 
manufacturing.  Meade saw the way out of the crisis as targeting 
infrastructure spending, promoting growth of the middle class, and 
maintaining faith in liberal capitalism and globalization. 
 
------------------------------ 
Q------------------------------ 
Comment - China to the Rescue? 
------------------------------ 
 
¶13.  (SBU) South Africa to some extent missed out on the commodity 
boom -- because of challenges related to regulatory uncertainty, 
transformation requirements, safety problems, power shortages, bulk 
transport bottlenecks, and mature geology -- but it and the rest of 
Africa will not miss out on the commodity bust.  Mining companies 
have reacted quickly to purge the excess of projects and to limit 
mineral supply.   At the same time, they are trying to remain 
flexible to take advantage of the inevitable upturn.  Companies that 
held off on retrenchments - hoping for a short downturn - have now 
concluded otherwise and are now scaling back operations and 
employment.  Chinese demand is seen as the last great glimmer of 
hope for a turnaround given the expanding recession in many parts of 
 
PRETORIA 00000393  004 OF 004 
 
 
the world.  It remains to be seen if that is the case. 
lA LIME