VZCZCXRO3726
OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHPOD #0075/01 0891209
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 301209Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1231
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 1319

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PODGORICA 000075 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION:  LANDSLIDE VICTORY FOR 
PRO-EUROPEAN RULING COALITION 
 
REF: A. A: PODGORICA 74 
     ¶B. B: PODGORICA 71 
     ¶C. C: PODGORICA 65 
 
PODGORICA 00000075  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Unofficial results have Montenegro's ruling 
coalition winning more than 50 percent of the vote in the March 
29 parliamentary election.  With the exception of the 
center-left Socialist People's Party, which doubled its seats 
from the last election, and possibly an additional seat going to 
an anti-GoM Albanian party, it was a bad day for the opposition. 
 The pro-Serb NOVA party and especially the centrist Movement 
for Change (PzP) saw their totals shrink, while one small, 
pro-Serb opposition coalition is on the cusp of the 
parliamentary threshold.  While the OSCE/ODIHR mission has not 
yet released its assessment, no major irregularities were 
reported on election day, and turnout was 65 percent.  Overall, 
the March 29 result was a vote for stability and the 
continuation of Montenegro's Euro-Atlantic course.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
 
Ruling Coalition Wins in Landslide 
 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (U) As expected (Ref A), the "European Montenegro" coalition 
- the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) in an expanded 
coalition with junior partner the Social Democratic Party (SDP) 
and newcomers the Bosniak Party (BP) and the Croatian Civic 
Initiative (HGI) - has won an easy victory in the March 29 
parliamentary race.  While official results have not yet been 
announced, parallel vote counts conducted by two NGOs - the 
Center for Democratic Transition (CDT) and Center for Monitoring 
(CEMI) - both give the coalition just under 51 percent of the 
vote.  (Note:  CDT has the coalition at 50.5 percent, CEMI at 
50.7 percent.  Both NGOs have proved accurate in past elections; 
the CDT effort was funded by NDI.) 
 
 
 
¶3. (U) The results assure the coalition a solid majority of 
approximately 46-49 MPs - the final number depends on how many 
parties cross the three percent threshold (see below) - in the 
81-seat Parliament.  The current DPS-SDP coalition, plus one HGI 
MP who is part of the alliance, now has a slim, 41-MP majority. 
 
 
 
Bad Day For Opposition 
 
---------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4. (U) The top opposition vote-getter was the Socialist People's 
Party (SNP), which received 17 percent of the vote.  This will 
likely translate into 16 seats, an increase from eight that the 
party now holds.  Other than the SNP, it was not a good day for 
opposition parties.  The pro-Serb New Serbian Democracy (NOVA) 
got nine percent of the vote; this should equal eight seats, but 
is down from 11 seats the party currently holds in a wider 
coalition of Serb parties.  And predictions of the collapse of 
the formerly leading opposition party - the Movement for Change 
(PzP) - proved accurate.  The PzP, which went through a damaging 
schism earlier in the year (Ref C), picked up only six percent 
of the vote, which would net the party only five seats in 
Parliament (down from 11 currently). 
 
 
 
NS-DSS On the Fence 
 
------------------- 
 
 
 
¶5. (U) The number of seats the ruling coalition will receive 
could change slightly if the People's Party-Democratic Serbian 
Party (NS-DSS) coalition squeaks back into Parliament.  Both the 
CDT and CEMI counts put the pro-Serb coalition at three percent. 
 Should that figure hold up, the NS-DSS would get two seats (a 
loss of one seat from their current three-MP total).  If not, 
those two seats would go to the ruling coalition. 
 
 
 
¶6. (U) Two parties which pre-election polls predicted could 
enter Parliament - the Democratic Center-Liberal Party coalition 
and the Party of Pensioners - appear to have fallen short.  The 
 
PODGORICA 00000075  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
vote counts put both at about 2.5 percent.  The radical Serbian 
National List received only 1.3 percent of the vote. 
 
 
 
Albanian Seats:  DPS Loses Ground? 
 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶7. (U) The only off note for the ruling coalition in an 
otherwise bright day could be in the results of the five seats 
elected from ballots cast in specially designated 
Albanian-majority polling stations.  The ruling coalition 
currently controls two of these seats, with a third held by the 
pro-GoM Democratic Union of Albanians (DUA).  While the results 
remain to be confirmed (and the vote is very close), the 
parallel counts predict that the DPS likely will get only one 
seat this time around.  And while the DUA should retain its 
mandate, the three other seats will be divided among the 
opposition Democratic Alliance in Montenegro-Albanian List 
coalition, the Albanian Coalition-Perspektiva alliance, and the 
FORCA party. 
 
 
 
Local Elections Mirror National Level 
 
------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶8. (U) Mayoral elections were held concurrently in Herceg Novi 
and Tivat and elections for local councils were held in Niskic 
and Budva.  The incumbent mayors (SNP in Herceg Novi and DPS in 
Tivat) won reelection, while the ruling coalition won easy 
victories in both of the local council races. 
 
 
 
Turnout:  Lower than 2006 
 
------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶9. (U) According to the parallel vote counts, turnout was about 
65 percent, down from 71 percent in 2006.  Turnout may have been 
affected by steady rain (and some snow in the north) that fell 
in much of the country throughout election day, and by the lack 
of drama in the race. 
 
 
 
Election Day:  Few Violations Reported 
 
-------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) Major irregularities were not expected on election day 
(Ref B), and none were reported.  (Note:  Although PzP leader 
Nebojsa Medojevic, who occasionally tends toward the dramatic, 
claimed he was assaulted by a DPS supporter when casting his 
vote; video of the incident does indicate an altercation of some 
sort.)  U.S. Embassy observers noted only a handful of very 
minor infractions.  Opposition parties were well represented on 
polling commissions, and the State Election Commission 
registered more than 1,200 domestic and international observers. 
 The OSCE/ODIHR election observation mission will announce its 
evaluation of the campaign and vote this afternoon. 
 
 
 
What's Next for Parliament, Government? 
 
--------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶11. (U) According to the election law, the State Election 
Commission must certify the official results of the election 
within 15 days of election day.  According to the Constitution, 
the new Parliament must convene no later than 15 days after the 
date of publication of the final results. 
 
 
 
¶12. (U) According to the Constitution, President Vujanovic must 
propose a new PM-designate within 30 days of the first seating 
 
PODGORICA 00000075  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
of the new Parliament.  The PM-designate presents his program to 
Parliament, and proposes the composition of the new Government. 
The Parliament votes simultaneously on the PM's program and 
government.  (Note:  The current GoM continues in an acting 
capacity until the new GoM is elected.) 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶13. (SBU) In a low-key election which played out almost exactly 
as predicted, Montenegrins voted overwhelmingly for stability 
and a continuation of the country's Euro-Atlantic course. 
(Note:  Although with the caveat that public support for NATO 
still lags far behind the consensus for EU membership.)  The 
ruling coalition rolled the dice - but with the odds stacked 
heavily in its favor - that it would win another term before the 
global economic crisis hit Montenegro full-force.  Its payoff is 
a solid majority in Parliament, which will select the next 
government (which will in turn likely look very much like the 
current one.) 
 
 
 
¶14. (SBU) The SNP was the other big winner in the race, 
capitalizing on divisions between opposition rivals NOVA and the 
PzP.  Overall, the opposition faired poorly:  voters continued 
to desert the PzP, which has been in free-fall for over a year, 
and a schism within the Serb parties cost NOVA some votes. 
Approximately ten percent of the vote went to opposition parties 
falling short of the three percent parliamentary threshold.  The 
next Parliament therefore will contain fewer parties, but - with 
a multi-ethnic ruling coalition and some of the more radical 
Serbs failing to reenter Parliament - will likely be somewhat 
more moderate. 
MOORE