VZCZCXRO1978
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHPOD #0074/01 0861051
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 271051Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
INFO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1228
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 0004
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 1316

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PODGORICA 000074 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR EUR/SCE AND INR/EUR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: RULING COALITION EXPECTED TO COAST TO VICTORY 
 
REF: A: PODGORICA 65; B: PODGORICA 47; C: PODGORICA 71; AND D: PODGORICA 46 
 
PODGORICA 00000074  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Montenegro's expanded Democratic Party of 
Socialists - Social Democratic Party coalition is expecting a 
landslide win in the March 29 election, with a solid 
parliamentary majority well within reach.  The out-financed and 
fragmented opposition trails far behind, with only the three 
strongest parties, the left-centrist Socialist People's Party 
(SNP), the pro-Serb NOVA, and the civic Movement for Change 
(PzP) assured a return to Parliament.  Several other parties and 
coalitions are hovering around the three percent parliamentary 
threshold.  Barring an eleventh-hour surprise (such as a surge 
of votes for a radical Serb bloc), the next Parliament -- and 
therefore the next government -- will look similar to the 
current one, only less oppositionist, and possibly more 
centrist.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
Coalition Victory Expected 
 
-------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) With two days remaining before Montenegro's March 29 
parliamentary election, the ruling Democratic Party of 
Socialists (DPS), in an expanded coalition with long-time junior 
partner the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and newcomers the 
Bosniak Party (BS) and Croatian Civic Initiative (HGI), is 
poised to win a landslide victory.  According to a March 9-15 
poll by the NGO CEDEM (which has been fairly accurate predicting 
the results of previous elections), the so-called "European 
Montenegro - Milo Djukanovic" coalition is supported by 51.2 
percent of likely voters. 
 
 
 
Leading Opposition Parties 
 
-------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) Trailing far behind is the fragmented opposition, which 
failed to unite despite a flurry of highly publicized 
initiatives at the beginning of the year.  (Note:  In total, 16 
parties and coalitions are registered for the election).  At 
this point, only the three strongest opposition parties are 
likely to return to Parliament.  They are: 
 
 
 
--The Socialist People's Party (SNP):  The SNP has struggled to 
reconcile its conservative, anti-independence, and largely Serb 
base with leader Srdjan Milic's desire to create a modern, civic 
party.  After losing support steadily over several elections, 
the SNP has gained back ground rapidly over the past year, in 
part due to turmoil within its two main opposition rivals. The 
SNP, which retains a strong organization throughout Montenegro, 
presents itself as a responsible, pro-European party. According 
to the CEDEM poll, 16.8 percent of Montenegrins support SNP. 
 
 
 
--New Serbian Democracy (NOVA):  Former second-place 
presidential candidate Andrija Mandic recently transformed his 
Serbian People's Party (SNS) -- the leading force within the 
Serbian List alliance -- into NOVA.  Mandic hopes that NOVA, by 
downplaying Serb identity issues and focusing on improving the 
quality of life of all Montenegrins, will expand his electorate. 
 The immediate effect, however, was to split the Serbian List, 
and disgruntled new Serbian National List (SNL) coalition, 
composed of the Serbian Radical Party and the Party of the 
Serbian People, are now attacking Mandic for selling out Serb 
interests.  NOVA is still far and away the strongest Serb party, 
but the discord could cut into its results.  According to the 
CEDEM poll (which some claim tends to underestimate support for 
Serb parties), NOVA has 12 percent of the vote. 
 
 
 
--Movement for Change (PzP):  Once aspiring to be Montenegro's 
leading opposition party, the centrist, multi-ethnic PzP has 
plummeted in the polls following leader Nebojsa Medojevic's 
disappointing third place showing the April 2008 presidential 
race.  In January (reftel A), several of the party's MPs and a 
sizeable number of activists, disenchanted with Medojevic's 
mercurial leadership and propensity to play to all sides on 
major issues, split to form the Democratic Center (now allied 
 
PODGORICA 00000074  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
with the Liberal Party). The CEDEM poll, vigorously disputed by 
PzP supporters, gives the party only 6.3 percent support (an IRI 
poll, in the field in February before opposition parties had 
decided against a pre-election coalition and before the campaign 
had officially started, put PzP at 9.7 percent support among all 
voters.) 
 
 
 
Best of the Rest? 
 
----------------- 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) The polls show only two other parties/coalitions on the 
cusp of the parliamentary threshold: 
 
 
 
--The Democratic Center - Liberal Party (DC-LP) alliance:  The 
former PzP-ites in the DC bill their new party as a 
pro-Montenegrin, "third-way" alternative to the ruling coalition 
and nationalist parties (in contrast to the PzP, which failed to 
take a stance on independence and which recently has been chummy 
with Mandic.)  The Liberal Party is known for its skepticism of 
NATO membership, but will anyway fold their party into the DC 
(which is more open to the possibility of NATO) after the 
election.  CEDEM puts support for the DC-LP, which appears to 
have some significant financial backing, at 2.9 percent (the IRI 
poll has the combined total of the two parties at 3.3 percent). 
 
 
 
--The Party of Pensioners and Disabled:  According to CEDEM, the 
Party, a new organization based on military veterans and 
retirees concerned about the effects of the global economic 
crisis, is supported by 3.5 percent of the population. 
Skeptics, however, predict that the party's lack of 
infrastructure and funding makes it likely to fade at the 
finish. 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Among the remaining candidates, the pro-Serb People's 
Party - Democratic Serbian Party (NS-DSS) coalition has polled 
badly, but its constituent parties have three MPs in the current 
Parliament and retain some infrastructure.  The radical Serbian 
National List, comprised of disgruntled former members of the 
Serbian List, has made some noise during the campaign (often by 
attacking NOVA) but has 1.6 percent support, according to the 
CEDEM poll.  With the exception of a new "Bosniaks and Muslims 
Together" coalition (polling at 1.9 percent), other non-Albanian 
parties/coalitions - including the radical Fatherland Serbian 
Party and the Montenegrin Communist Party - barely register. 
 
 
 
Albanian Parties 
 
---------------- 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Five of the 81 seats in Parliament are elected by votes 
cast in approximately 70 majority-Albanian polling stations.  In 
the September 2006 election, the DPS won two of these seats, 
while three small Albanian parties -- the pro-GoM Democratic 
Union of Albanians (DUA) and the opposition Democratic Alliance 
of Montenegro (DSCG) and Albanian Alternative (AA) -- garnered 
an MP apiece.  Observers predict that the ruling coalition will 
retain its two seats (and could even gain a third, although that 
is uncertain).  The DUA should regain its one seat, but faces a 
battle from three Albanian opposition parties. 
 
 
 
Election Silence Begins 
 
----------------------- 
 
 
 
¶7. (U) The election silence begins at midnight on the evening of 
March 27, and lasts until 9pm on March 29, when voting booths 
close.  According to the law, political parties are banned from 
espousing political stances to the public during this period. 
 
 
 
PODGORICA 00000074  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) The ruling coalition is the overwhelming favorite in 
this low-key election, with the main drama centered around 
whether it can gain an absolute majority of votes. Even if it 
fails to achieve this, the coalition is still likely to get a 
solid majority, since a number of votes will be "wasted" on 
parties failing to clear the parliamentary threshold which will 
in turn give winning parties proportionally more seats.  A 
secondary drama is unfolding for pride of place as leading 
opposition party.  Currently, the SNP appears likely to gain 
seats, and PzP is likely to lose some.  Barring an unlikely last 
minute surprise, such as a surge of votes for the Serbian 
National List -- polls sometimes underestimate Serb voters -- 
the return to Parliament of a now less-nationalistic NOVA (along 
with the moderate SNP and PzP, and perhaps DC-LP) bodes well for 
the centrist nature of the next Parliament.  Otherwise, the new 
Parliament is likely to look a lot like the current Parliament, 
only with fewer opposition MPs. 
MOORE