VZCZCXRO3922
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHPOD #0065/01 0781417
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 191417Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1212
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 1300

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PODGORICA 000065 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: MOVEMENT FOR CHANGE STUMBLES TOWARD ELECTION DAY 
 
REF: 08 PODGORICA 234 
 
PODGORICA 00000065  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  The Movement for Change (PzP) lost its status 
as Montenegro's leading opposition party following leader 
Nebojsa Medojevic's third-place showing in the April 2008 
presidential race.  That defeat, the party's lack of coherent 
message, and Medojevic's controlling management style all 
contributed to a painful party schism in January, when several 
MPs and an unknown number of members departed to form the 
Democratic Center party (now running in alliance with the 
Liberal Party).  The PzP heads into the March 29 parliamentary 
election with only six percent support, according to a March 18 
poll, and its decline could leave a hole in Montenegro's 
political center.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
Sharp Drop in Polls~ 
 
-------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) Founded in 2006 as a pro-European alternative to the 
ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and Serb 
nationalists, the PzP was Montenegro's leading opposition party 
after gaining 11 seats in its first election (in September 
2006).  However, party leader Nebojsa Medojevic's disappointing 
third place showing in the April 2008 presidential race 
precipitated a sharp drop in the PzP's poll numbers, from over 
20 percent support in mid-2007 to less than ten percent today 
(according to a March 18 poll by the respected NGO CEDEM, the 
PzP is now supported by only six percent of likely voters). 
 
 
 
~Leads to Sharp Break in Party 
 
------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) An extensive period of soul-searching following the 
April presidential election also contributed to a schism within 
the party:  in January, former PzP Vice President Goran 
Batricevic, three other PzP MPs, and an unknown number of party 
activists split to form the Democratic Center party (which is 
running in alliance with the Liberal Party in the parliamentary 
election race). 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) In recent conversations, Batricevic and other former 
party members pointed to two primary reasons for the schism: 
 
 
 
--First, they disagreed with Medojevic over the party's 
strategic course.  Critics have long accused Medojevic of 
putting political expediency ahead of principles, and in fact 
several of the party's founders left in 2006 when Medojevic - 
seeking not to offend Serb voters - declined to explicitly back 
Montenegrin independence.  Several PzP members and sympathizers 
told us they were unhappy with Medojevic's peripatetic 
presidential campaign - in which he tried to be all things to 
all voters on Kosovo and other issues, and engaged in hyperbolic 
rhetoric about drug dealers running the country.  Batricevic 
said the last straw was when Medojevic threw in his lot with 
Serb nationalists by appearing at an October 2008 protest 
against the GoM's recognition of Kosovo. 
 
 
 
--Second, they objected to Medojevic's propensity to take 
decisions without consulting other party leaders.  One former 
PzP MP and presidency member told us that Medojevic's management 
style, rather than any single incident (although "defeat 
sharpens all disagreements"), was the problem.  "I simply got 
tired of learning of party decisions from the newspaper," the MP 
said.  Batricevic said he had tried to establish a political 
council - a core group within the party's presidency - to rein 
in Medojevic, but had been outvoted by Medojevic supporters. 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) For their part, Medojevic loyalists claim that 
Batricevic and his allies were trying to move the PzP out of the 
opposition.  MP and party spokesman Koca Pavlovic claimed to us 
that the splinter group was funded by daily newspaper 
"Vijesti's" financial backers, who were looking to make peace 
with the DPS after vociferously opposing the GoM.  (According to 
Pavlovic, the "Vijesti" group, which included editor Zeljko 
Ivanovic, had found themselves shut out of commercial deals.) 
 
PODGORICA 00000065  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
 
 
How Bad is the Damage? 
 
---------------------- 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) By most accounts, the schism has seriously hurt the 
party.  One former PzP MP told us that seven members of the 
17-person party presidency had left, and another source close to 
the party claimed that PzP functionaries in Podgorica and 
Niksic, Montenegro's two largest municipalities, would defect en 
masse to the Democratic Center.  And an MP from another party 
told us in February that a Medojevic loyalist had conceded to 
him privately that half the party's members were on the fence 
over whether to remain. (Note:  Batricevic was much less 
confident.  "While 90 percent of the party supports me," he told 
us, "I don't expect many to leave.") 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) Furthermore, our interlocutors both within and close to 
the party tell us that remaining PzP members and supporters are 
exhausted and dispirited after a year of setbacks and the bitter 
rift with Batricevic and his group.  For the parliamentary 
election campaign, this has affected both fund-raising - a 
critical issue for a party which borrowed heavily to promote 
Medojevic's presidential run, and whose coffers are now bare - 
and also the enthusiasm and willingness of PzP cadres to throw 
themselves into promoting their party. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU) With less than two weeks remaining before election 
day, the PzP probably has enough gas in the tank to return to 
Parliament, but the sleek, gleaming vehicle that excited 
younger, moderate Montenegrins in 2006 and 2007 is now a 
battered clunker.  In the course of the past year and a half, 
the party has managed to alienate potential supporters and 
members alike with its lack of a clear strategic vision and 
highly centralized decision-making.  At the heart of the 
controversy over both policy and management is the mercurial and 
controlling Medojevic, now running a similar parliamentary 
election campaign - focusing on corruption and allegations of 
fraud - as in his unsuccessful presidential race. 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) With the PzP in decline, the mantle of centrist, 
opposition leadership has passed to the Socialist People's Party 
(SNP), which is poised to make big gains on March 29 but is 
still struggling to reconcile a more centrist, civic wing with 
older, Serb, and pro-Yugoslav members.  Some former PzP 
supporters will gravitate toward the Democratic Center - Liberal 
Party coalition, but it is unclear whether this alliance will 
make it over the three percent hurdle to enter Parliament (the 
March 18 CEDEM survey gives it 2.9 percent support).  The bottom 
line is Montenegro's moderate opposition will remain fractured 
and weak in the next Parliament. 
MOORE