VZCZCXRO1488
RR RUEHAST RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB RUEHPOD RUEHTM RUEHTRO
DE RUEHPF #0202/01 0860555
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 270555Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0548
INFO RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE
RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PHNOM PENH 000202 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS, EAP/MTS, EAP/RSP, AND OES 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV EAGR ARF ASEAN ENRG EAID EIND CB
SUBJECT: ARF WORKSHOP RAISES DEBATE ON WHETHER CLIMATE CHANGE IS A 
SECURITY OR DEVELOPMENT ISSUE 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY.  The traditional climate change debate between 
developed and developing countries emerged during an ASEAN Regional 
Forum (ARF) seminar on "International Security Implications of 
Climate-Related Events and Trends", hosted by the European Union 
(EU) and Royal Government of Cambodia (RGC) in Phnom Penh on March 
20 (participant list emailed to EAP/RSP).  The EU and Japanese 
delegations presented findings from their studies on the security 
implications of climate change, which largely echoed the findings in 
a June 2008 U.S. National Intelligence Assessment on the topic. 
Developing country representatives stressed that many of the 
security concerns highlighted in the studies were development issues 
and called for developed nations to provide more assistance to meet 
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).  United Nations Development 
Programme (UNDP) and Environment Programme (UNEP) representatives 
stressed that climate change could also drive positive change as a 
"peace-multiplier", rather than a threat-multiplier.  The EU 
delegation, which pushed to hold the seminar, was pleased with the 
outcome and called for further ARF focus on climate change. 
However, the nature of the discussion, which drifted into the 
development discussions typically heard at United Nations Framework 
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meetings, seemed to fall 
outside of the ARF's traditional mandate of promoting dialogue on 
political-security issues.  END SUMMARY. 
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES' FINDINGS LARGELY CONSISTENT 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶2. (SBU) EU and Japanese studies on the security implications of 
climate change echoed findings in the June 2008 U.S. "National 
Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of 
Global Climate Change to 2030".  All studies found that: 1) climate 
change factors could exacerbate existing trends and tensions, such 
as poverty, environmental degradation, and weak political 
institutions; 2) intra- and inter-state conflict could arise due to 
scarcity of and access to resources such as land and fresh water; 3) 
coastal areas risk costly infrastructure damage or outright loss due 
to rising sea levels and extreme weather events; 4) human migration 
could intensify due to loss of land, shrinking income opportunities, 
and natural disasters; and 5) multilateral systems could break down 
as countries step up protection of their borders and resources. 
 
DEVELOPING NATIONS: CLIMATE CHANGE MORE SERIOUS FOR US 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) During the meeting's first session, developing country 
delegations discussed the potential impacts of climate change on 
their economies and infrastructures.  The delegate from Vietnam 
explained that droughts in the dry season and flooding in the rainy 
season had become more frequent and more intense.  Sea levels on 
Vietnam's coasts had risen by about 20 cm over the past 50 years. 
The Vietnamese study found that for every one degree Celsius 
temperature rise, maize yields would reduce by 5-20%, and rice 
yields would drop by 10%.  The Malaysian, Chinese and Cambodian 
delegations described similar trends and threats in their reports. 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) The Malaysian delegate called for stricter greenhouse gas 
mitigation efforts, criticizing EU proposals for a two-degree 
Celsius cap on temperature rises.  A two-degree increase in 
temperature would be acceptable for Europe, he stressed, but would 
be a disaster for developing nations and island nations, such as the 
Maldives.  The Chinese delegation called on developed countries, as 
those responsible for historic greenhouse gas emissions, to provide 
more support for adaptation activities in developing countries.  Dr. 
Tin Ponlok of the Cambodian National Climate Change Office 
emphasized the need for clean technology transfer mechanisms and 
clearer adaptation funding mechanisms.  He said that existing funds 
available for adaption, such as the Least Developed Country and 
Special Climate Change Funds, were either too small or burdened with 
complex rules for eligibility and financing. 
 
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT: SECURITY OR DEVELOPMENT ISSUE? 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Dinesh Patnaik, Joint Secretary from the Indian Ministry of 
Foreign Affairs and the most vocal of the developing country 
delegations, questioned the utility of examining climate change in a 
security context.  He feared that looking at climate change through 
a "security lens" would draw attention and resources away from 
programs that would actually mitigate impacts of climate change.  He 
argued that security threats highlighted by the EU and Japan (and 
the U.S.) were development issues.  Poverty, mass human migration 
and conflict over resources may be intensified by climate change, he 
contended, but they already occurred today and had been seen in the 
developing world throughout history.  He said that the key to 
mitigating perceived security threats was to minimize the inherent 
 
PHNOM PENH 00000202  002 OF 002 
 
 
tensions caused by the development divide, such as poverty and lack 
of economic opportunities, which lead to economic migration and 
conflict. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The EU delegation countered that climate change could and 
should be considered a security issue, albeit a "non-traditional" 
security issue versus a "hard" security issue.  UNDP and UNEP 
representatives noted that climate change could have a positive 
effect on international security as a "peace-multiplier", a common 
threat against which nations must unite and cooperate to address. 
Alain Lambert, Senior Policy Officer for the UNDP's Bureau for 
Crisis Prevention and Recovery, argued that if developed nations 
shifted some of their spending from military and other 
security-related budgets, they could redirect resources into 
"no-regret" investments that would benefit recipients even if 
climate change disasters never happen. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) The ARF Seminar highlighted the different vantages from 
which developing and industrialized countries view the potential 
impacts of climate change.  The EU delegation was clearly in the 
driver's seat for this event and was pleased with the outcome.  At 
one point an EU representative acknowledged that the ARF seminar was 
part of the EU's consultative process to gather feedback for its 
climate change roadmap.  However, because the conversation 
frequently redirected to development assistance, the tone and 
content of the meeting ended up repeating many of arguments 
previously made in the UNFCCC process.  Although the EU will push 
for more climate change discussions in future ARF meetings, these 
discussions may continue to duplicate existing global climate change 
negotiations and draw the ARF's focus from its traditional 
political-security agenda. 
 
 
RODLEY