VZCZCXRO4192
OO RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC
DE RUEHOT #0252/01 0891659
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 301659Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9278
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 000252 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: CLOSE RACES ARE HOT ELECTION PROSPECTS 
 
REF:  A.  08 OTTAWA 1325 
-     B.  08 OTTAWA 1324 
-     C.  OTTAWA 231 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: In the 2008 federal election, 42 members of 
Parliament won their seats by five pct or less of the vote; these 
"marginals" will be particularly in play in the next election -- 
which most pundits expect sometime within the next twelve months. 
The Conservatives hold the greatest number of these ridings; 31 are 
in the key battleground provinces of Ontario, British Columbia, and 
Quebec.  The two major parties are already reportedly focusing on 
the 2008 marginals as the Conservatives scour the country for the 
extra 12 seats they need for a majority government, while the 
Liberals seek at least to regain lost ground and at best to form the 
next government.  End summary 
 
SQUEAKING BY IN 2008 
-------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) The Conservatives won a "strengthened" minority government in 
October 2008, with 143 seats in the 308 seat House of Commons to the 
Liberals' 77, the Bloc Quebecois' 49, and the New Democratic Party's 
(NDP) 37 (refs a and b).  (There were two Independent victors.) 
Although the Conservatives and the NDP both gained seats, the 
Conservative vote nationwide only rose from 36.2 pct of the total in 
2006 to 37.6 pct in 2008, and the NDP from 17.4 pct to 18.2 pct. 
The total number of Conservative votes actually dipped slightly -- 
by 168,737 votes -- from 2006.  A major factor in the 2008 election 
outcome was a big drop in turnout among Liberal supporters, 
particularly in Ontario and British Columbia, where there were 
significant numbers of urban ridings with tight three-way races. 
Overall, the national participation rate was 59.1 pct, a notable low 
by Canadian standards. 
 
 
¶3. (U) In the 2008 election, candidates in 42 "ridings" (electoral 
districts) won with five pct or less of the vote over the 
second-place candidate.  Of these, the Conservatives won 17, the 
Liberals 12, the Bloc Quebecois five, and the NDP seven.  (One seat 
went to an Independent.)  The Conservatives came second in 15 other 
marginal ridings, with the Liberals second place in 14 marginals. 
Overall, the Liberals won 12 of their 77 current seats (just under 
15 pct of the total) in 2008 by a margin of 5 pct or less, while the 
Conservatives won approximately 12 pct of their 143 seats by the 
same low margin.  However, the Conservatives had greater success 
than the Liberals in retaining marginals that they had won in 2006 
(17 of 18 ridings), converting some of them to safer seats, and 
picking up 11 new marginal ridings.  In contrast, the Liberals lost 
14 of the 22 marginal ridings that they had won in 2006, and only 
picked up two new ones. 
 
 
¶4. (U) In 2008, marginal seats were predominately in the vote-rich 
provinces of Ontario (13), Quebec (10), and British Columbia (8). 
In addition, there were two marginals each in Nova Scotia, New 
Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, and Alberta, and one each in 
Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labrador, and the Northwest 
Territories. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) These marginals are the logical starting point for the 
strategies of both the Conservatives and Liberals in particular in 
the next election, because the five pct gap is often bridgeable with 
extra resources, a strong local campaign and candidate, and timely 
stops on prime ministerial, ministerial, or leaders' tours.  In 
recent public comments, Liberal MP Keith Martin (who won his B.C. 
riding by only 68 votes) noted that Conservatives are already 
zeroing in on his riding with funding announcements and ministerial 
visits.  Liberal MPs also have alleged that the government of 
Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper plans to spend the bulk 
QConservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper plans to spend the bulk 
of a new C$3 billion emergency infrastructure fund in the 2009 
federal budget for projects in "swing" ridings; the government has 
declined repeated requests from the Liberals to release information 
about these projects. 
 
ONTARIO: WHERE THE ACTION IS 
---------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) Of the 13 marginal seats in Ontario in 2008, Liberal MPs hold 
five, Conservatives five, and the NDP three.  (After the 2006 
election, the Liberals had held 12 of these same 13 ridings, and the 
NDP one.)  Eleven of the 13 marginal ridings are in urban and 
suburban southern Ontario, which had been an electoral fortress for 
the federal Liberal Party from 1993 to 2006.  The Conservatives were 
second in seven more marginal ridings in suburban Toronto and 
south-west Ontario, and the Liberals second in six. 
 
¶7. (U) Overall, Conservative MPs now hold 51 of Ontario's 106 seats, 
the Liberals 38, and the NDP 17.     The Conservatives in 2008 
gained 11 seats in Ontario, winning 39.2 pct of the popular vote, up 
from 40 seats and 35.1 pct of the vote in 2006.  However, the 
Conservatives' absolute vote in the province barely increased. 
 
OTTAWA 00000252  002 OF 003 
 
 
According to one study, the party's gain in vote share largely came 
about because approximately 500,000 Ontario voters -- mostly 
Liberals -- went "missing" between the 2006 and 2008 elections, to 
the benefit of Conservative candidates.  The Green Party also helped 
to fragment the opposition vote in Ontario in 2008, without winning 
any seats in Ontario -- or in any other province. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Strategic targeting and cultivating of ethnic communities 
by the Conservatives apparently also paid off, notably in Jewish and 
South Asian communities.  Former journalist Peter Kent (now Minister 
of State for the Americas) beat two-term Liberal incumbent Susan 
Kadis with 49.01 pct of the vote in Thornhill, a Toronto suburban 
riding with a substantial Jewish population.  Similarly, in 
Brampton-Springdale (with a significant South Asian community), 
two-term incumbent Liberal MP Ruby Dhalla has seen her own majority 
shrink from 20.20 pct in 2004 to 16.6 pct in 2006 and to only 1.71 
pct in 2008 over the second-place Conservative. 
 
QUEBEC: A NON-CONSERVATIVE FUTURE? 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (U) In Quebec, Bloc Quebecois MPs won five marginals and the 
Conservatives and Liberals two each, along with one Independent. 
The Bloc came second in five other marginal seats in 2008.  Although 
the Conservatives in 2008 overall retained 10 of their 11 seats (two 
of which were marginals) from 2006, they did not place second in any 
of Quebec's eight other marginal seats.  The Liberals wrested two 
Montreal-area ridings (including former Liberal PM Pierre Trudeau's 
son Justin winning his Papineau seat by only 2.78 pct) from the 
Bloc, and placed second to the Bloc in four other marginals. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Overall, in 2008 the Bloc won 49 of Quebec's 75 seats, the 
Liberals 14, the Conservatives 10, and the NDP one.   However, the 
Conservative Party received 120,000 fewer votes in Quebec than in 
¶2006.  (According to one Conservative insider, if the election had 
taken place one week sooner, the Conservatives might have lost 
almost all of their Quebec seats.)  Recent polls suggest that 
Conservative support in the province has dropped from 22 pct in 
October to only between 10 and 13 pct now, with gains going so far 
mainly to the Liberals.  Bloc support has remained steady at 39 pct. 
 Conservative insiders have reportedly admitted that all of the 
Conservatives' ten seats (except perhaps former Defence Minister 
Maxime Bernier's rural Beauce riding) may be very much in play in 
the next federal election.  (See ref c for a more detailed 
discussion of the complex Conservative/Quebec relationship.) 
 
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE WEST: JUST A LIBERAL DREAM? 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶11. (U) Conservative insiders reportedly see British Columbia as the 
second hottest battleground -- after Ontario -- to make gains. 
Conservatives won four marginal seats in the province in the 2008 
election, while the Liberals and the NDP each won two.  British 
Columbia was the only province where Conservative gains -- from 17 
seats in 2006 to 22 in 2008 -- were due to a substantial increase in 
votes -- from 681,014 votes (37.3 pct) in 2006 to 797,371 (44.4 pct) 
in 2008).  The Liberals' currently have five seats (down from nine 
in 2006) in the province and the NDP nine.  Rural British Columbia 
has long been solid Conservative country, but, although they came 
close in 2008, the Conservatives have so far failed to break through 
in urban Vancouver. 
 
¶12. (SBU) The Conservatives came second in four marginals in 2008, 
of which three were in urban or suburban Vancouver, along with one 
in suburban Victoria.  The Liberals placed second in two marginals 
Qin suburban Victoria.  The Liberals placed second in two marginals 
and the NDP in two.  These coveted urban seats are tightly-fought 
three-way contests which, if the Conservatives could break through, 
would finally dispel the charge that the party is unelectable in 
Canada's major cities.  One obvious Conservative target would be the 
riding of Vancouver South, where former Liberal cabinet minister 
(and former B.C. premier) Ujjal Dosanjh eked out the thinnest margin 
of victory nationwide: only 0.05 pct -- or 20 votes -- over his 
Conservative opponent. 
 
¶13. (SBU) Liberal Party leader Michael Ignatieff has declared 
"building bridges" to western and rural Canada a priority.  The 
Liberals currently hold only seven of the 92 seats west of Ontario, 
and received only 16 pct of the western Canadian vote in 2008 
(behind even the NDP).  Since taking over the party leadership in 
December, Ignatieff has already paid four visits to western Canada. 
The party will also hold its biennial policy convention in Vancouver 
in late April/early May, when delegates will formally confirm 
Ignatieff as leader and provide input for the Liberal election 
platform.  Some senior Liberals nonetheless have advised the party 
publicly to set "realistic" goals in the region and initially target 
only the six to eight ridings that the party had previously won in 
Manitoba, Alberta, and Vancouver. 
 
THE POLLS: NARROWING THE GAP 
---------------------------- 
 
 
OTTAWA 00000252  003 OF 003 
 
 
¶14. (U) In recent polls, the Liberals have significantly narrowed 
the gap with the ruling Conservative Party, even moving ahead 
nationally in one mid-March poll to 36 pct over the Conservatives' 
33 pct.  The recession, sliding Conservative support in Quebec, and 
an uptick in Liberal support in Ontario appear to be fuelling the 
Liberals' rise.  While Conservative support has largely remained 
steady in the mid-30 pct range, the Liberals have profited from 
growing support among female voters and an apparent drift back from 
the NDP and Green Party. 
 
¶15. (SBU) Political posturing over the recent budget has revived 
talk of a federal election, possibly as early as June, when the 
second of three progress reports on the government's stimulus 
package is due.  However, many Liberal and Conservative MPs have 
suggested fall 2009 or early spring 2010 (before the next budget) 
are far likelier dates, with some Liberals suggesting "all bets are 
off" from the fall onward and Conservative MPs more often expecting 
a 2010 rematch.  Although some Liberals are reportedly eager for a 
snap election, the majority appear to prefer to wait at least 
through the summer. 
 
¶16.  (SBU)  According to Liberal MPs charged with platform 
development, Ignatieff's commitment to hold party policy discussions 
this summer within 100 days of formally becoming leader is still on 
track.  The expected next Liberal Party president, Alfred Apps, told 
reporters in March that the Liberals' focus will be on retooling, 
fundraising, organization, and platform development to "help us 
muscle our way back into the centre" of the political spectrum and 
to "help us rebuild where we need to win, which is outside the big 
cities, Quebec and hopefully, some small, modest breakthroughs in 
Western Canada." 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶17. (SBU) This government's minority status in the House of Commons 
makes a four-year term virtually a political impossibility. 
Conventional wisdom suggests that the severity of the global 
recession would drive voters away from the "luxury" opposition 
parties -- the NDP and the Greens -- everywhere except in Quebec, 
where the Bloc stands poised potentially to do even better than in 
¶2008.  The two major parties appear set to battle it out primarily 
in Ontario and British Columbia, beginning with those marginal seats 
that they hold or covet.  The Conservatives, with their 17 marginal 
victories in 2008, are arguably in the more precarious position, 
underscoring the expectation that the next election will be theirs 
to lose. 
BREESE