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P 231715Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
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INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 1073

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 000231 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2019 
TAGS: PGOV ECON CA
SUBJECT: LITTLE LOVE LEFT - THE CONSERVATIVES AND QUEBEC 
 
REF: 08 OTTAWA 1293 
 
Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary: The 2008 federal election damaged Prime 
Minister Harper's political standing in Quebec.  Rather than 
heal campaign rifts over Conservative juvenile crime 
proposals and cuts to arts funding, PM Harper's subsequent 
attacks in December against the "separatist" Bloc Quebec's 
support for the short-lived Liberal/NDP coalition pact 
further alienated many Quebec voters.  The government's 
efforts to reign in the growth of equalization payments have 
also fanned discontent.  PM Harper reportedly blames Quebec 
Premier Jean Charest for the Conservatives' failure to win a 
parliamentary majority.  While continuing to bolster 
Conservative party organizational and communications 
structures in Quebec, PM Harper probably has already 
concluded that Conservative prospects in the province are 
dim, and shifted gears to winning new seats in Ontario and 
British Columbia in the next election.  End summary. 
 
BRUISED BY THE BALLOTS, EH? 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  In the October 2008 federal election, the Bloc 
Quebecois successfully used the wedge issues of Prime 
Minister Harper's tough anti-crime legislation and cuts to 
cultural funding to argue that Conservatives were out of 
touch with "Quebec values."  Quebec voters reportedly also 
resented Conservative billboards claiming that voting for the 
Bloc Quebecois was a "waste of money."  PM Harper's attacks 
on the "separatist" Bloc Quebecois for its role in supporting 
the short-lived proposed coalition between the opposition 
Liberal and New Democratic parties in December further 
angered many ordinary Quebecers, many of whom see themselves 
nowadays as federalists seeking to influence policy in 
Ottawa, rather than as advocates for Quebec independence. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Support for the Conservatives has plummeted in 
Quebec, especially in and around Quebec City.  A recent 
Strategic Counsel/Globe & Mail/CTV News poll showed only 10 
pct of Quebecers would vote for the Conservatives, far behind 
the Bloc (40 pct) and Liberals (30 pct), and level with the 
NDP and Green Party (each with 10 pct).  It was the worst 
showing for the Conservatives in Quebec since December 2005. 
Many commentators have predicted that, in the next federal 
election, the Conservatives will be hard-pressed to retain 
their current ten Parliamentary seats, much less gain more of 
Quebec's 75 "ridings" (voting districts with MPs). 
 
BAD BLOOD, N'EST-CE PAS? 
------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (C)  PM Harper's relations with Quebec Premier Jean 
Charest -- a former federal Cabinet minister under 
Conservative then-Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, before 
returning to provincial politics in 1998 -- appear to have 
been strained at least since the March 2007 Quebec provincial 
election, when Charest took C$700 million in fiscal imbalance 
money from the federal budget and unexpectedly earmarked it 
as a tax cut.  PM Harper's December 2007 joint appearance 
with Action Democratique du Quebec (ADQ) then-leader Mario 
Dumont in his Riviere-du-Loup constituency, at a time when 
Charest had a minority government, also reportedly hurt 
relations with Charest.  During the October 2008 federal 
election, Charest openly seconded the Bloc's criticism of the 
federal government's cuts to arts spending and proposals on 
juvenile offenders. 
 
¶5. (C)  According to Privy Council Office (PCO) Quebec Policy 
Advisor Eric Ferguson (protect), PM Harper's failure to 
respond to a letter that Charest had sent to federal 
Qrespond to a letter that Charest had sent to federal 
Conservative party leaders during the October 2008 election 
outlining Quebec's top demands also caused friction. 
Ferguson (a Quebec City native who is a nine year PCO 
veteran) claimed that PM Harper was "shocked" that Charest 
had even sent the letter -- especially in the midst of an 
election campaign -- and laid the blame specifically on 
Charest for the Conservatives' failure to win a parliamentary 
majority in that election.  (Note: The letter's fifteen 
requests included greater funding for higher education and 
non-profit organizations, respect for "Quebec's approach" to 
juvenile offenders, support for a Quebec City-Windsor high 
speed train, and a formal role for Quebec in nominating 
Supreme Court justices.  End note.)  However, Ferguson 
commented to poloff on March 18 that relations between PM 
Harper and Charest may now be slowly improving, noting that 
they spoke during the week of March 10 and planned to speak 
again on March 19. 
 
WEAK ROOTS, PEU DE FLEURS 
------------------------- 
 
OTTAWA 00000231  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶6.  (C)  Conservative Party insiders have repeatedly chafed 
at the lack of obvious talent within the pool of Quebec's 
Conservative MPs, leaving the party entrusting important 
portfolios to less-than-obvious choice MPs in the mostly vain 
attempt to woo Quebec voters.  The biggest recent blunder, in 
retrospect, was the August 2007 appointment of Maxime Bernier 
(Beauce) as Foreign Minister; he resigned in disgrace in 
April 2008 after compromising classified documents at his 
girlfriend's house.  (He nonetheless won re-election in 2008 
by the largest margin nationwide.)  The 35-year old Public 
Works Minister Christian Paradis (Megantic-L'Erable) was then 
a surprise choice, given his lack of experience or stature, 
to be the Conservatives' new "lieutenant" for Quebec. 
Current Foreign Minister Lawrence Cannon (Pontiac), National 
Revenue Minister Jean-Pierre Blackburn (Jonquiere-Alma), and 
Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Josee Verner 
(Louis-Saint-Laurent) are the other Quebecers now in the 
cabinet, with many commentators attributing their prominence 
to their origins rather than their talents or prospects.  PM 
Harper reportedly tried but failed to persuade ADQ leader 
Mario Dumont to enter federal politics following the ADQ's 
disappointing December 2008 Quebec general election result. 
According to the PCO's Ferguson, Dumont also turned down PM 
Harper's offer of a Senate seat in December 2008.  Some 
analysts have predicted that Dumont's departure from Quebec's 
political scene may be a blessing in disguise for PM Harper 
by opening the door for a rapprochement with Charest.  But, 
according to Ottawa-based political consultant Bruce 
Campbell, Charest may be reluctant to be perceived as warming 
up to PM Harper while the latter's popularity in Quebec 
remains so low. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Another self-inflicted blow to the Conservatives 
came in mid-March, when Conservative MP Daniel Petit 
(Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles) publicly described 
Quebecers as a bunch of "illiterates" when it comes to 
learning English.  The Bloc Quebecois responded that the 
remarks showed the Conservative party's lack of credibility 
and weakness in Quebec. 
 
NEVER GIVE UP, MAIS... 
--------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C)  To improve his communications efforts in Quebec, PM 
Harper has increased the number of Quebecers in the Prime 
Minister's Office (PMO).  Previously, PMO Deputy Press 
Secretary Dimitri Soudas was PM Harper's sole advisor on 
Quebec, but there are now at least four PMO senior officials 
devoted to Quebec policy.  The PCO's Ferguson noted that 
Conservative officials are increasingly participating in 
Quebec media events, including television shows appealing to 
a wider cross-section of the electorate.  Separately, in 
early March, Minister Paradis announced that he had obtained 
additional financial resources for Conservative party 
activists in Quebec and that Quebec riding associations would 
be given greater flexibility to join forces in regional 
clusters. 
 
¶9.  (C)  The Conservatives' highly lauded (and feared, by the 
Liberals) campaign "war-room" (reftel) had featured a large, 
separate unit exclusively devoted to the Quebec campaigns in 
the October 2008 election.  However, according to Minister 
Paradis' chief advisor on organizational planning, 
Conservative MP Jacques Gourde (Lotbiniere-Chutes de la 
Chaudiere) -- who also serves as Parliamentary Secretary both 
for Public Works and for National Revenue -- even his own 
October 2008 re-election had owed more to his extended family 
ties than to the Conservatives' organizational and 
Qties than to the Conservatives' organizational and 
communications strategies.  Conservative party activists were 
reportedly disappointed to learn in early March that PM 
Harper had abandoned plans to create a Quebec wing of the 
Conservative party, as many had hoped.  Campaign decisions in 
the next election apparently will again remain concentrated 
in the hands of the Ottawa-based national Conservative 
campaign director, rather than in the field. 
 
¶10.  (C)  In an apparent recognition that prospects remain 
limited for Conservative victories in Quebec, the 
Conservatives appear to be increasingly looking elsewhere. 
PM Harper's re-introduction of tough anti-crime legislation 
-- knowing full well it would be unpopular in Quebec -- in 
2008 and 2009 seemed to many as clearly an appeal to the 
Conservatives' western constituency but also potentially to 
win over voters in British Columbia, where a rash of gangland 
killings has alarmed Vancouver residents.  The PCO's Ferguson 
claimed to poloff that PM Harper's ever-improving relations 
with Ontario Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty, and the 
government's new-found willingness to bail out the Ontario 
automobile sector, reflected Conservatives' interest in 
broadening their popularity in vote-rich Ontario, with its 
106 Parliamentary seats.  (Note: There is no automobile 
 
OTTAWA 00000231  003 OF 003 
 
 
sector in Quebec.  End note.)   Similarly, the Conservatives' 
intensive outreach to ethnic minorities and immigrant groups, 
especially by Minister for Citizenship, Immigration, and 
Multiculturalism Jason Kenney, may be another signal that the 
Conservatives are now targeting Liberal strongholds in the 
Greater Toronto Area and Vancouver, instead of Quebec, to win 
that illusive majority. 
 
IT'S THE MONEY, CHERI(CHAREST)! 
------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU)  Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe and Premier 
Charest have both publicly criticized PM Harper for reducing 
the growth rate of equalization payments, accusing him of 
unilateralism and of breaking his word.  (Note: Equalization 
is a federal transfer program to reduce fiscal disparities 
among provinces, and is entrenched in the 1982 Canadian 
Constitution.  End note.)   The Quebec government on March 19 
announced an expected deficit in its 2009-2010 budget, 
exacerbated by what it claims will be C$770 million less in 
federal equalization payments than earlier projected.  In the 
2009-2010 fiscal year, Quebec will nonetheless still receive 
58 pct of all federal equalization payments to provinces and 
territories, or C$8.35 billion out of a total of C$14.36 
billion -- an increase of C$330 million from the 2008-2009 
fiscal year.  Quebec's total federal transfer payments in 
2009-2010 will be C$17.7 billion (for equalization, health 
transfers, social transfers, direct targeted support, and 
trust funds), an increase of C$800 million from 2008-2009. 
 
¶12.  (C)  According to the PCO's Ferguson, Canada's 2009 
stimulus package will also directly benefit Quebec, through 
job training as well as housing and aboriginal programs.  He 
noted that he spends 90 pct of his time on stimulus-related 
issues and has a list of Quebec shovel-ready projects, 
including infrastructure, water, hydro, roads, hospitals, 
higher education, housing, and social projects.  The federal 
government owns the bridges around the island of Montreal and 
is considering renovating the Champlain Bridge, Ferguson 
added.  In addition, the 2009 federal budget provided 
improved credit access for Quebec companies through the 
Export Development Corporation.  Finance Minister Jim 
Flaherty in January announced a contribution of C$1 billion 
to the "Societe Generale de Financement du Quebec" (SGF) to 
support its investments in Quebec businesses.  In December 
2009, the federal government and the Quebec and Ontario 
provincial governments will jointly review the results of a 
feasibility study for a Quebec City-Windsor high-speed train, 
although Transport Minister John Baird has publicly stated 
that the estimated C$30 billion price-tag may be too high to 
support. 
 
COMMENT:  A DIEU, QUEBEC? 
------------------------- 
 
¶13.  (C)  Once heralded in Quebec for the 2006 House of 
Commons motion recognizing the Quebecois as a nation within a 
united Canada and for giving Quebec a permanent seat within 
Canada's Mission to UNESCO, PM Harper and the Conservative 
Party no longer generate much, if any, enthusiasm among 
Quebecers.  While the Conservatives cannot afford entirely to 
alienate the province or to give up all hope of more 
potential Quebec seats to win an eventual majority in the 
House of Commons, it will be heavy lifting even to maintain 
their current base of support.  In the week before the 
October 2008 election, Conservatives had begun to walk away 
from the prospect of a parliamentary majority built on 
victory in Quebec, and PM Harper and his key strategists may 
have already calculated that Conservative resources will earn 
Qhave already calculated that Conservative resources will earn 
better returns in Ontario and British Columbia.  However, 
fears of the Liberal Party under increasingly popular new 
leader Michael Ignatieff picking up seats in Quebec in the 
next election will likely force the Conservatives to continue 
to compete for the scraps in Quebec, even though well aware 
that the Bloc -- which now holds 49 of Quebec's 75 seats in 
the House of Commons -- will remain the dominant political 
force in federal politics in Quebec for the foreseeable 
future. 
 
Visit Canada,s North American partnership community at 
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / 
 
BREESE