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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 NEW DELHI 000522 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: BILLION INDIAN VOICES:  CONGRESS SET FOR GAINS IN 
PUNJAB 
 
REF: A. 2008 NEW DELHI 2829 
     ¶B. NEW DELHI 507 
     ¶C. NEW DELHI 298 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary:  The Congress Party appears poised for a 
comeback in Punjab with political observers projecting the 
party will pick up five to nine seats in the two phase 
parliamentary elections on May 7 and May 13.  Just two years 
into the current state government's tenure, the inherently 
dissatisfied Punjabi electorate continues to demand more from 
the ruling Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)-Bharatiya Janata Party 
(BJP) coalition than it can deliver.  A growing 
anti-incumbency sentiment, together with the SAD-BJP's poor 
development record and a slowing economy, will provide a 
boost for the Congress Party in upcoming elections.  Contacts 
from across the political spectrum agreed that former Chief 
Minister Captain Amarinder Singh and Prime Minister Manmohan 
Singh retained popular support among rural and urban voters, 
and would enhance the Congress Party's elections prospects in 
Punjab if they took more active roles in campaigning.  End 
Summary. 
 
Congress Set for Gains 
--- 
 
¶2.  (U)  Poloff and PolFSN traveled to Punjab in late 
February to assess the political climate in the state ahead 
of the two phase parliamentary election on May 7 and May 13. 
They visited Chandigarh, Amritsar, Patiala and rural areas 
outside of Jallandhar.  Politicians, journalists, civic 
leaders and businessmen we met told us the Congress Party 
appears to be gaining momentum as the May elections draw 
close.  Political observers expect the Congress Party to pick 
up five to nine parliamentary seats in Punjab, where it 
currently holds only two of the state's thirteen Lok Sabha 
seats. 
 
¶3.  (U)  The state's ruling Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)- 
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) coalition government, under the 
leadership of Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal, swept 
eleven out of thirteen districts in the 2004 Lok Sabha 
elections.  The Akali coalition's winning streak continued in 
February 2007 assembly elections, where it secured 68 out of 
117 seats in the state legislature.  The opposition Congress 
Party has worked to rebuild its political standing ahead of 
the May parliamentary elections in Punjab.  Captain Amarinder 
Singh, former Chief Minister and head of the Congress Party 
elections committee in Punjab, retains popular support among 
rural voters and is expected to lend star power to Congress's 
campaign.  Former Congress Party Chief Minister and current 
Leader of Opposition in the state legislature Rajinder Kaur 
Bhattal and Punjab Congress Party President Mahinder Singh 
Kaypee will also play prominent roles in upcoming elections. 
 
Punjab:  India's Wealthiest State Showing Signs of Wear 
--- 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Elections in Punjab are binary competitions 
between the Congress Party and a regional party, the 
Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD).  Support for the Bharatiya Janata 
Party (BJP) is confined to urban areas.  It has allied with 
the Akalis in recent election cycles to form coalition 
governments in the state.  The Congress and BJP battle it out 
in Punjab's urban centers, while the Congress and Akalis 
dominate rural politics.  Punjabi voters are chronically 
dissatisfied and demand more from the incumbent government. 
As a result, the "anti-incumbency" factor plays a prominent 
role in the outcome of elections.  Punjab was one of the 
first states to break the Congress Party's longstanding 
monopoly on power throughout the country after independence. 
Since the 1970's, the state has alternated between Congress 
Party and Akali rule, with the opposition ousting the 
incumbent party every five years. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Punjab is a border state with Pakistan on the 
 
NEW DELHI 00000522  002 OF 005 
 
 
west, Jammu and Kashmir on the north, Himachal Pradesh on the 
northeast, and Haryana and Rajasthan on the south.  With a 
population of 25.5 million, it is as large as Peru.  Sikhs 
comprise the largest ethnic/identity group at 60 percent 
followed by Hindus at 40 percent.  Christians, Jains, Muslims 
and Buddhists account for less than one percent of the 
population.  It remains the richest state in India, with its 
historically strong agricultural sector and nascent real 
estate and industrial sectors.  In FY 2008, the state's GDP 
was USD 18 billion with a per capita income of USD 680. 
Punjab's road, rail, air and transport systems are routinely 
rated the best in India.  However, there are signs of decline 
in Punjab.  Its GDP growth was six percent in 2008, making it 
one of the slowest growing states in the country. 
Agriculture has stagnated at two percent growth for the last 
five years.  Its long-held claim to highest per capita income 
in India has been ceded to neighboring state Haryana. 
Moreover, its human development indices in education and 
health are comparable to some of the most backward states 
(Ref. A). 
 
SAD-BJP Election Machinery Revs Up 
--- 
 
¶6.  (U)  Approaching Patiala, the princely city of colonial 
Punjab, drivers are bombarded by bright yellow ads at every 
lamp post and billboard space featuring the Deputy Chief 
Minister and Akali Dal President Sukhbir Singh Badal, who 
happens to be the son of Chief Minister Prakash Singh Badal. 
There are few Congress Party ads on the city's main drag or, 
for that matter, anywhere else in Patiala.  According to 
Indian Express Special Correspondent Sanjeev Chopra, the 
ratio of SAD-to-Congress advertising does not reflect voter 
sentiments ahead of May parliamentary polls.  He explained 
that while urban and rural districts overwhelmingly swung to 
the SAD-BJP in the 2007 state assembly election, there is a 
growing dissatisfaction across Punjab.  The state is in the 
midst of a financial crisis with nearly empty state coffers. 
Agriculture, the basis of Punjab's prosperity, remains weak. 
Many observers told us that the socio-economic situation has 
worsened under the present government.  They point to rising 
unemployment and falling public education and health 
investment to make their argument. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  In response, SAD leaders have unleashed an 
aggressive publicity campaign.  Party advertising blankets 
metro Punjab streets from the capital city of Chandigarh to 
the state's cultural heart Amritsar.  In all English language 
and local vernacular papers, full-page color ads feature the 
coalition government's business and social development 
credentials.  Last month, the SAD leadership announced the 
strategic promotion of the Chief Minister's son Sukhbir to 
the Deputy Chief Minister position, and the political 
chattering classes are abuzz with speculation of Sukhbir's 
wife Harsimrat Kaur Badal's launch into national politics as 
the party's candidate for parliament in the rural district of 
Bathinda. 
 
Bathinda: Frontlines of Elections Battle 
--- 
 
¶8.  (U)  Bathinda in Punjab's Malwa region has emerged as an 
unexpected battleground in upcoming Lok Sabha elections.  The 
rural constituency has seen a sharp upswing in development 
activity after the SAD-BJP government took over in 2007.  The 
pace has accelerated during the last few months.  Just days 
before our arrival on February 22, Chief Minister Badal had 
laid six foundation stones for different projects, including 
a five-star hotel and a world class cancer treatment 
facility.  Deputy Chief Minister Badal said the SAD-BJP 
government is committed to changing the face of the Malwa 
region, considered the most backward area of Punjab. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  Observers told us Akali development in Bathinda is 
aimed at continuing the Badal family's political legacy.  As 
 
NEW DELHI 00000522  003 OF 005 
 
 
a result of delimitation (re-districting), the Badals lost 
their family home constituency of Faridkot because it was 
reserved for Dalit candidates only.  The Badals moved to 
shore up the Akali presence in Bathinda in time for May 
elections.  There is growing speculation that Harsimrat Kaur 
Badal, daughter-in-law of CM Badal and wife of deputy CM 
Sukhbir, will be the party's candidate.  Harsimrat could go 
head-to-head with the Congress Party's own legacy candidate 
former CM Amarinder Singh's son Raninder, who has been one of 
the most vocal critics of the Badal administration.  Both 
parties have yet to formally announce their candidates in 
Bathinda, but many are preparing for what is sure to be a 
knockdown battle between Punjab's most powerful political 
families. 
 
O Captain, Where Art Thou? 
--- 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  Throwing cash into flashy advertising and 
populist schemes, contacts noted, is not expected to do much 
to defuse the dissatisfaction with the ruling government in 
Punjab.  The full-capacity crowds at Congress rallies 
headlined by Captain Amarinder Singh bear witness to the fact 
that the Congress has become a credible political force in 
the state once again.  Even our more cautious contacts 
believe that the party is heading towards a comeback from its 
poor showing in 2004 Lok Sabha elections in which it lost 
eleven out of thirteen districts.  They project that Congress 
will win at least five Lok Sabha seats in upcoming polls and 
perhaps more if the party commits sufficient resources to the 
state campaign. 
 
¶11.  (SBU)  Contacts from across the political spectrum 
agreed that Captain Singh retained popular support among 
rural and urban voters alike, and would likely lead the 
Congress Party to victory if he took a more active role in 
campaigning.  Yet, Captain Singh has been missing from the 
campaign trail.  Many have noted that the Captain's active 
social life has distracted the former CM from his political 
duties.  Others believe that the Captain's flamboyant and 
colorful lifestyle leads to his larger-than-life public 
persona and accounts for his popularity and political 
success.  According to contacts, Captain Singh faces strong 
resistance from state and national Congress Party lobbies. 
Congress MLA Kewal Dhillon observed that the Captain's 
provocative statements and showy public profile "intimidate" 
fellow state party leaders Rajinder Kaur Bhattal and Mahindra 
Singh Kaypee, both of whom harbor ambitions to become the 
next chief minister of a Congress state government.  In 
Delhi, many fear that his "loose cannon" personality would be 
difficult to control.  As a telling sign of Congress 
apprehension, the Captain was left out of the Congress 
Party's Punjab election planning meeting in February, which 
included a handful of MLAs and his party competitors Bhattal 
and Kaypee. 
 
Economy and Development Top Election Issues 
--- 
 
¶12.  (SBU)  Meetings with opinion-shapers in the Punjab's 
metro centers of Jallandhar and Chandigarh left little doubt 
that urban Sikhs and Hindus are fed up with the SAD-BJP's 
economic and development record.  There was agreement among 
our contacts that Punjab's fiscal crisis has worsened under 
the current government.  They noted that the state's 
cumulative debt is now larger than its State Domestic 
Product.  In addition, the state faces an acute energy 
problem with most urban households receiving an average of 
only ten hours of electricity a day.  Business confidence and 
consumption have stagnated amid growing concerns over the 
global financial turmoil.  According to Kanwar Dhillon, 
Congress MLA Dhillon's son and head of the family commercial 
real estate investment, this has led many industry leaders to 
either delay projects or to move operations to states with 
tax-free concessions and pro-business reputations such as 
 
NEW DELHI 00000522  004 OF 005 
 
 
Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat.  He had planned to 
break ground in March on a new mall project outside of his 
family's ancestral village. His strategy now is to wait out 
the economic cycle and stay clear of costly investments for 
at least the next six months. 
 
¶13.  (SBU)  Urban voter disenchantment is not Badal's only 
problem.  In the rural economy, money owed by the government 
to commission agents for procuring last October's harvest has 
yet to be paid out.  They, in turn, have not been able to 
make payments to farmers, who have yet to see the record 
minimum support price secured by Badal turn into money in 
their hands.  Pankaj Khanna, a close advisor to Captain 
Amarinder Singh and Bureau Chief of Azad News, indicated the 
need for crop diversification, which would help to break the 
state's dependence on wheat and rice.  He also mentioned that 
despite the state's affluence, its health and education 
indices rank Punjab among the most backward states in India. 
In Khanna's opinion, the development and governance issues 
will be featured prominently in upcoming elections:  "People 
want drinking water, electricity, schools and decent roads." 
 
Terrorism Not An Issue 
--- 
 
¶14.  (SBU)  Terrorism will not be an important issue in 
upcoming elections in Punjab.  The state, more so than other 
states, has been more vigilant about internal security 
following over a decade of Sikh militancy in the eighties and 
nineties.  The police forces and intelligence networks played 
a central role in stamping out extremist elements in the 
past, and Punjabis feel secure that they will be able to 
thwart present and future attacks inspired from across the 
border, observers suggested (Ref. B). 
 
UPA Edging Out BJP 
--- 
 
¶15.  (SBU)  When asked about the BJP's elections prospects, 
contacts observed that the party's adherence to a hardliner 
agenda may hurt its chances in the state.  Punjab Minister of 
Cooperative Development Captain Kamaljit Singh noted that he 
was not surprised by the ratcheting up of Hindutva rhetoric 
by party leaders in the last several weeks.  He pointed to 
BJP leader and prime ministerial candidate L.K. Advani's call 
for the construction of a Ram temple in Ayodhya, Uttar 
Pradesh during a leadership conclave last month (Ref. C). 
Herkawaljit Singh, editor of the local vernacular paper the 
Daily Ajit, observed that Punjabis have "no tolerance" for a 
divisive ideological agenda after a decade of insurgency. 
Despite efforts by BJP leaders to project Advani as a secular 
candidate in the mold of former PM Vajpayee, Herkawaljit told 
us that most Punjabis would not support an Advani candidacy, 
noting his close ties to the Hindu chauvinist Rashtriya 
Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and his role in the Ayodhya 
controversy. 
 
¶16.  (SBU)  According to contacts, Punjabis are more 
concerned about issues that affect their daily lives, such as 
development, economic stability and employment.  Ashok Sethi, 
Special Correspondent of the Tribune, pointed to the 
achievements of the current United Progressive Alliance (UPA) 
government under the leadership of Prime Minister Manmohan 
Singh:  an historic economic growth averaging at 8%, the 
U.S.-India civil nuclear initiative and development programs 
such as the national rural employment scheme (NREGA).  Sethi 
said that people across the state admire the PM, a native 
Punjabi and Sikh, for his honesty, sense of purpose and bold 
policy initiatives.  Avanish Chopra, managing director of his 
family's newspaper, The Punjab Kesari, singled out the PM's 
central role in shepherding through the civil nuclear 
initiative and characterized the deal as the "great hope" for 
the country's power sector.  He projected the UPA would 
receive popular support among Punjabis if the PM actively 
campaigned on the election trail, but shared concerns about 
 
NEW DELHI 00000522  005 OF 005 
 
 
the leader's deteriorating health in recent months. 
 
Comment:  Congress Party:  Riding the Anti-incumbency Wave 
--- 
 
¶17.  (SBU)  Anti-incumbency is an irresistible force in 
Punjab.  In the last 30 years, the incumbent government has 
everytime been voted out of state office or lost a 
parliamentary election.  This trend will likely continue in 
May parliamentary elections.  The ruling SAD-BJP coalition 
government, with just two years under its belt, is facing a 
palpable anti-incumbency wave with Punjabi voters demanding 
more from the government than it can deliver.  Over the last 
several months, the Akalis have poured money into flashy 
advertising and development schemes to shore up voter 
confidence, but it may be too late to buck the trend.  The 
SAD-BJP will likely lose parliament seats in May, but they 
will have three remaining years in office to either prove to 
the Punjabi electorate that the coalition is responsive to 
local needs or risk another drubbing in the 2012 state 
assembly elections.  End Comment. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
WHITE