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O 170723Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5757
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7470
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RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 7728
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 8184
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000484 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI PINR KISL IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: MAYAWATI HOPES TO DOMINATE UTTAR 
PRADESH 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Caste combinations and identity politics, 
rather than development or governance are the key drivers as 
Uttar Pradesh (UP) heads into parliamentary elections in 
April-May.  National issues appear to play little or no role 
in voting decisions.  This poor, largely rural state of 185 
million holds the largest number of Lok Sabha seats (eighty) 
and will be crucial to any coalition hoping to govern after 
elections.  Two regional parties, the Samajwadi Party (SP) of 
Mulayam Singh Yadav and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) of 
current UP Chief Minister Mayawati, both look to win about 
thirty to thirty-five seats with an edge to the BSP.  Neither 
of the two national parties, the Congress Party nor the 
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), enjoy a solid position in UP. 
They will have to rely on alliances, most likely with the SP 
and BSP respectively, though none of the parties have 
formally aligned yet. Mayawati remains the most dominant 
politician in UP and is contesting - and spending - in every 
district. 
 
¶2. (SBU) In Poloff's conversations with politicians, 
academics, journalists and religious leaders in a four day 
swing through the state in early March, contacts agreed the 
BSP operates the largest and most organized grass roots 
network in the state.  Thus far no large issue has resonated 
in the voters' minds.  This should augur well for the 
organized and disciplined BSP.  Mayawati deeply wants to 
become Prime Minister, and with thirty plus seats, she will 
be a player at the center.  With fifty seats (an outside 
possibility), the unpredictable Chief Minister could be a 
major player and could stand an even better chance of 
fulfilling her burning ambition.  However, of her natural 
allies, the BJP is faltering in its national campaign while 
the Third Front remains fragile and seemingly unviable at 
this early stage.  End Summary. 
 
Identity Politics Rules 
----------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) As parties jockey for advantage in the run-up to 
polls, each will chose candidates based entirely on the caste 
make-up of each constituency.  In this regard, the BSP seems 
the furthest along.  A BSP worker told Poloff candidates are 
selected based on intricate caste calculations, though BSP 
candidates still pay for the privilege.  Dalits (about 20% of 
the electorate) will support the BSP and their Dalit heroine 
Mayawati, despite the fact that she has wasted huge sums of 
money on parks and statues instead of building much needed 
public infrastructure.  Brahmins will support the BSP if the 
party runs a Brahmin candidate in their constituency. 
Muslims (also about 20% of the electorate) will support 
Muslim candidates, or if there isn't a Muslim candidate, 
whichever candidate will defeat their archenemy, the BJP. 
Tight contests with candidates from the same identity group 
will come down to personality, and money. 
 
¶4. (U) When asked, "What do people think about PM Singh?" one 
journalist replied, "Not much, he hasn't turned off any 
groups, so that is good."  National issues such as the 
overall economy - much less relations with the U.S. - do not 
factor into the lives or thinking of UP's predominately rural 
poor.  Local issues such as water, roads and electricity 
matter, but even less so than the caste/religious background 
of the candidates. 
 
Mayawati Still Powerful 
----------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Embassy contacts consistently reported that only 
Mayawati's BSP seems to have put a serious effort into the 
campaign thus far.  Her main rival, the SP, remains locked in 
acrimonious seat-sharing talks with the Congress Party. 
According to journalists, the BSP operates the most extensive 
grass roots network in UP.  Campaign funds will not be a 
problem.  Mayawati basically "sells" the right to contest a 
 
NEW DELHI 00000484  002 OF 003 
 
 
district for the party.  Journalists estimated the minimum 
cost at roughly half a million dollars.  If a higher bidder 
enters the market after a seat has been sold, Mayawati - in a 
high-minded act of "fairness" - requires the higher bidder to 
repay the original bidder, and then collects the higher bid. 
She thus sells the same seat twice, or more.  Near unlimited 
funding for the grass roots network, combined with her cult 
of personality and complete control of the state government, 
make the BSP competitive for all eighty Lok Sabha seats. 
 
¶6. (U) The BSP currently has seventeen Lok Sabha seats. 
Political observers generally agreed that total will rise to 
about thirty to thirty-five.  Mayawati sees herself as a 
future Prime Minister, and even thirty seats will make her a 
player in post election coalition scenarios.  However, it 
would likely take a minimum of forty-five to fifty seats for 
her to lay a genuine claim to the top spot.  Mayawati aligned 
three times in the past with the BJP to form UP state 
governments, and it would likely be within a BJP-supported 
coalition that she could become Prime Minister.  If the BJP 
surpasses the Congress Party to cobble together a coalition, 
the BSP would support the BJP-led coalition, but Mayawati 
would remain UP Chief Minister and wield veto-like influence 
from the UP capital, Lucknow. 
 
SP Benefits from Being in Opposition 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶7. (U) The SP, led by Mulayam Singh Yadav, relies 
predominantly on the Yadav and Muslim vote banks.  The party, 
which played savior to the UPA during the July 2008 trust 
vote, currently holds thirty-three Lok Sabha seats and 
represents the toughest opposition to the BSP.  Embassy 
contacts report the SP will likely remain at about thirty to 
thirty-five seats.  Mulayam Singh Yadav resoundingly lost to 
Mayawati in the 2006 state elections due to corruption, 
government/police highhandedness and anti-incumbency.  Now 
because Mayawati has focused her two year tenure on wasteful 
park and statue building - as well as centralizing corruption 
in her own hands - instead of development, the BSP will 
likely suffer somewhat from anti-incumbency.  This should 
buoy the SP to some degree against Mayawati. 
 
¶8. (U) Also helping in the struggle against the BSP will be a 
general feeling in the electorate that the UPA is coming back 
to power, according to embassy contacts in Lucknow.  Despite 
Mayawati's courting of the Muslim community, the SP remains 
the traditional political home of Muslims in UP.  An SP 
worker told Poloff that the BSP's three former alliances with 
the BJP will be oft-mentioned in the SP's campaign.  The 
BSP-SP ground battle will be intense with each party doing, 
and spending, whatever they think necessary to win. 
 
Congress and BJP Vie for What's Left 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶9. (U) The Congress Party and the BJP, both once powerful 
parties in UP, have atrophied in the Hindi heartland.  The 
BSP and SP will likely win about sixty to sixty-five seats, 
leaving fifteen to twenty for the two national parties.  The 
SP partnered with the Congress Party to save the UPA over the 
Indo-U.S. civil nuclear, but the two remain stalled in seat 
sharing talks.  Both parties need each other and are natural 
allies, but both refuse to budge.  The Congress Party is 
demanding some twenty-five seats and the SP offering fifteen. 
 Both Sonia and Rahul Gandhi are Lok Sabha members from UP 
and will be campaigning is the state.  Several contacts 
mentioned that campaigning by Priyanka Gandhi could 
invigorate the Congress Party workers, but just as many felt 
it was too late.  Most embassy contacts put the Congress 
Party at ten seats. 
 
¶10. (SBU) The BJP shares the Congress Party's minor status in 
UP.  In the 1998 national election the BJP won fifty seats in 
 
NEW DELHI 00000484  003 OF 003 
 
 
UP.  Today it holds only eight.  Political observers put the 
BJP about even, with eight to ten seats.  Former BJP Prime 
Minister A.B. Vajpayee will not contest from his Lucknow 
constituency.  Without a rousing issue or inspiring leader, 
the BJP is in danger of total irrelevance in UP. 
 
Political Inertia Favors Mayawati, UPA 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Comment: So far, average voters in UP haven't 
focused intently on the national elections.  Many of the 
parties have yet to announce all their candidates and party 
leaders are still negotiating alignments and seat sharing 
agreements.  Mayawati runs the state like a fiefdom, but most 
voters take corruption in UP politics as a given.  While 
these are national elections, Poloff detected no sense that 
the UP electorate wants to "send a message" to Chief Minister 
Mayawati.  Likewise, there does not seem to be any 
overwhelming desire for change at the national level from UP 
voters.  In UP, as in the rest of India, Prime Minister Singh 
commands respect for his honesty and competence.  This 
political inertia would seem to bode well for the UPA and for 
Mayawati. With the likely increase in BSP Lok Sabha seats, 
Mayawati's national profile will be raised considerably, but 
probably not high enough - despite her singular desire - to 
become Prime Minister.  End Comment. 
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