VZCZCXYZ0011
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNE #0470/01 0721155
ZNR UUUUU ZZH (CCY AD3F530D MSI4519-695)
O 131155Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5732
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNISL/ISLAMIC COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7459
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 1183
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 6061
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 3185
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1558
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 6160
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 7713
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 8175
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC

UNCLAS NEW DELHI 000470 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D COPY CAPTION 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: CONGRESS PARTY POISED FOR 
SUCCESS IN RAJASTHAN 
 
REF: A. 2008 NEW DELHI 3094 
     ¶B. 2008 NEW DELHI 3066 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Political observers expect the Congress 
Party to pick up 6-10 seats from the Bharatiya Janata Party 
(BJP) in Rajasthan in the May 7 parliamentary elections. 
They see the Congress Party riding on momentum from its 
December 2008 win over the BJP in the state assembly 
elections, banking on the new Congress Party government's 
honeymoon period to continue for another two months, and 
anticipating that the state BJP will not be able to fully 
quell the infighting that was a major factor in its defeat in 
the assembly elections.  As caste and identity politics play 
a central role in Rajasthan elections, the electoral picture 
will become clearer once both parties have selected their 
candidates in the state.  Other issues that will have some 
influence on the results are terrorism, anti-incumbency, the 
slowing urban economy and redrawing of electoral district 
boundaries.  Rajasthan is one of the few states in north 
India where the Congress Party has a shot at picking up 
parliamentary seats to offset losses it expects in other 
states in the region.  End Summary. 
 
Congress Party Poised for Gains 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Poloff and PolFSN traveled to Rajasthan February 
24-27 to assess the political climate in the state ahead of 
the May 7 parliamentary elections.  Based on meetings with 
politicians, journalists, civic leaders and businessmen, the 
Congress Party appears today to be well placed going into the 
election campaign.  The momentum comes from the state 
assembly elections in December 2008, when it wrested power 
from the BJP.  According to a cross-section of contacts 
around the state, the Congress Party is expected to pick up 
6-10 parliamentary seats, substantially improving its 
position in the state where it currently holds only four 
seats out of the state's 25 member parliamentary delegation. 
Rajasthan's seat total comprises about five percent of the 
Indian parliament's 543 seats.  Seven of these 25 seats are 
reserved for candidates for historically disadvantaged 
groups. 
 
Rajasthan - Two Party State 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The Congress Party and the BJP dominate Rajasthan 
politics with no third party to pose any serious challenge in 
state and national elections.  Until 1977, Rajasthan was a 
Congress Party stronghold.  The first non-Congress government 
in the state was formed in 1977 by the Janata Party (of which 
the BJP was a part).  Since then, Rajasthan has alternated 
between Congress party and BJP rule.  Rajasthan's unicameral 
legislature has 200 seats of which Congress won 96 during 
December 2008 elections, when it ousted the BJP.  With a 
handful of smaller parties and independents, the Congress 
Party's Ashok Gehlot replaced the BJP's Vasundhra Raje as 
Chief Minister. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Rajasthan is India's largest state in terms of 
area, equal in size to Germany.  With a population of about 
60 million, it is as large as Italy.  The largest 
ethnic/identity groups are: Dalits - 22 percent; Tribals - 17 
percent; Jats - 12 percent; Muslims - 8.5 percent; Gujjars - 
8 percent; Rajputs - 8 percent; Brahmins - 8 percent.  About 
23 percent of the population lives in urban areas.  With a 
literacy rate of 61 percent, it ranks 29th out of India's 35 
states.  Per capita income is less than $200.  Modern 
Rajasthan is a study in contradictions.  While it is 
considered "backward" in terms of development indicators, it 
is not seen as a "bimaru" (sick) state like Bihar and 
Jharkhand.  It ranks low on social indices but it boasts one 
of the most ambitious and successful primary education 
 
programs.  The state's track record on crime against women is 
poor.  Yet, it has a strong women's empowerment movement and 
has reserved 50 percent of the slots in local government for 
women.  Despite being a conservative society steeped in 
feudalism, Rajasthan was the first state in India that 
enacted legislation on the right to information. 
 
Congress Strategy: Don't Upset the Applecart 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Incumbent Congress Party Chief Minister Ashok 
Gehlot has carefully tried to keep intact the momentum from 
the party's win over the BJP in the December 2008 state 
assembly elections.  In his ten weeks in office, he has 
avoided decisions with any hint of controversy.  His most 
visible announcement has been a populist one -- to revoke 
licenses of liquor shops located near schools and religious 
places and to tighten the hours they can remain open.  He 
deferred for over two months expansion of his cabinet to full 
strength for fear of backlash from disgruntled aspirants. 
When he did complete his cabinet on March 1, it was 
painstakingly balanced between castes, ethnic groups and 
regions.  That there were few public protests from hopefuls 
who did not make the cut implies that he carefully struck 
deals to accommodate them elsewhere. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) According to Congress Party officials in Rajasthan, 
the party campaign for the coming national elections in the 
state will be based on projecting the UPA government's 
achievements, the positive image of the Congress Party 
leadership in Delhi and the "clean" reputation of Chief 
Minister Gehlot.  They believe the party has successfully 
inoculated itself against terrorism and economic issues.  As 
in the rest of India, the party will try to brand itself as 
the party of youth and the future.  But, most of all, it will 
seek to play the caste/identity connections that are crucial 
in Rajasthan. 
 
BJP: Lessons Drawn From Assembly Elections 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The BJP will selectively use its tried and tested 
campaign issues against the Congress Party: accusations of 
negligence on terrorism and security, complaints about 
coddling the Muslim minority for vote bank politics, and 
promotion of Hindu nationalism.  It will seek to highlight 
the economic slowdown, pointing the finger at the Congress 
Party and accusing it of mismanagement.  Beyond these 
standard BJP election issues, the party will try to 
neutralize some of the factors that led to its defeat in the 
2008 assembly elections. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) According to The Hindu correspondent Sunny 
Sebastien and India Today's Rohit Parihar, the issues raised, 
the strategies deployed and the lessons learned in the 
December 2008 state assembly elections in Rajasthan offer 
good indications of what may be expected in the parliamentary 
elections in the state.  Besides the ever-present 
anti-incumbency factor during the state assembly elections, 
there was near agreement among our interlocutors that one of 
the primary reasons for the BJP's defeat was the ferocious 
infighting within the party in the state.  Chief Minister 
Vasundhra Raje had to fend off sniping and flank attacks from 
an array of political rivals, including former Vice President 
Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, former Foreign Minister Jaswant 
Singh as well as several state-level BJP stalwarts. 
¶9.  (SBU) The BJP infighting had its roots in CM Raje's 
manner, which was variously described by interlocutors as 
authoritarian, arrogant, autocratic and dictatorial.  Many 
critics attributed the BJP loss to Raje's "leadership style." 
 For the parliamentary elections, Raje will be less 
polarizing because she will only be one of many state and 
national BJP faces leading the campaign in the state. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Party infighting was exacerbated by the selection 
of BJP candidates for the state-level elections.  According 
to several analysts, the BJP attempted to replicate the 
successful Modi model of Gujarat by replacing a high 
proportion of its sitting legislators with new faces, in 
part, to try to defuse the threat of anti-incumbency.  This 
strategy appears to have failed in Rajasthan because it led 
to damaging internecine backbiting with factions more 
interested in working to defeat rival candidates from their 
own party rather than focusing on their Congress Party 
opponents.  There were also reports that the Sangh Parivar's 
Rashtriya Swayumsevak Sangh (RSS), which often provides the 
most dedicated campaign workers for BJP candidates, chose to 
sit out the election in several districts where it was 
unhappy with the selected candidate.  The BJP will seek to 
minimize such dissent during the parliamentary elections by 
more careful selection of party candidates and more attention 
to cutting deals with disgruntled aspirants. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Two other issues that may have contributed 
somewhat to BJP's downfall in the state assembly elections -- 
liquor and corruption -- may not stick in the parliamentary 
elections because they may not be sustainable beyond one 
election cycle.  During the campaign for the state assembly 
elections, Ashok Gehlot and the Congress Party attacked the 
BJP relentlessly for trying to raise government revenues by 
increasing the number of liquor outlets in the state.  The 
Congress Party complained about the proliferation of liquor 
shops near schools and places of worship.  In a conservative 
state such as Rajasthan, many felt this issue had some 
impact, particularly on women voters.  The Congress Party 
also accused Raje of "unprecedented" corruption, with real 
estate developers being a favorite fund raising target. 
Rajan Mahan of NDTV agreed that Raje had emerged as a major 
funding rainmaker for the BJP but he, along with Sebastian 
and Parihar, believed that corruption was not a high priority 
issue for voters and had only a small impact in selected 
areas.  In their view, voters don't care if politicians are 
raising funds from big real estate deals as long as it is not 
coming out of their own wallets. 
 
Terrorism 
--------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) To the extent terrorism will be an issue, it is 
likely to favor the BJP as "soft on terror" and "minority 
appeasement" are its long-standing campaign issues against 
the Congress Party.  The increasing frequency and intensity 
of terrorist attacks within India during the last two years, 
capped by the spectacular Mumbai attacks in November, has 
given more visibility to this issue.  Rajan Maran of NDTV 
believes that the Mumbai terrorist assault had a significant 
impact in the Rajasthan state assembly elections, polling for 
which took place on December 4, only days after attacks.  In 
his view, there were about 20 closely fought assembly seats 
which tipped towards the BJP following the Mumbai terror 
attacks.  He believes the BJP was headed for a crushing 
defeat due to party infighting and unwise selection of 
candidates, but was able to pull out a respectable 
performance and prevent the Congress from an outright 
majority because of the Mumbai attacks.  This opinion was 
shared by several local Congress and BJP officials as well as 
journalists from the vernacular Bhasker Dainik, who believed 
the Mumbai fallout was tangible but primarily in urban areas. 
 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Most of our interlocutors agreed, however, that 
the Mumbai effect has dissipated in the past three months. 
The Congress Party also had some success in neutralizing its 
vulnerability on the terrorism issue by quickly moving P. 
Chidambaram to replace the spectacularly inept Gandhi family 
loyalist Shivraj Patil at the Home Ministry.  It also helped 
 
itself by pushing through new anti-terror legislation in 
record time and talking tough towards Pakistan.  Furthermore, 
terrorism and minority appeasement have historically not 
found strong traction in Rajasthan as election issues because 
the state tends to be free of Hindu-Muslim tension due to the 
relatively small size of its Muslim minority. 
 
Anti-Incumbency 
--------------- 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Although Congress-led governments are in place in 
both Rajasthan and in Delhi, the Congress Party is expected 
to benefit in Rajasthan from the Indian voter's traditional 
penchant for voting out incumbents.  Having assumed power in 
December 2008, the Congress Party administration in the state 
is too new to suffer the taint of incumbency.  Chief Minister 
Gehlot has been careful not to make any controversial or 
polarizing decisions in the short time he has been in office. 
 Further, many of the BJP candidates are likely to be 
incumbents who have held their seats for ten years and will 
suffer from the Indian voters' proclivity for change. 
 
Caste and Identity: A Central Role 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Caste and identity arguably play a more important 
role in Rajasthan politics than in any other north Indian 
state.  Both parties pay great attention to wooing voters 
based on appeals to their caste or community.  The Congress 
Party is currently well placed with many of the important 
groups.  It has a built in electoral edge because 
traditionally Dalits have tended to be supportive.  The BJP 
must, therefore, consolidate several of the other groups in 
order to be competitive.  Other groups do not necessarily 
lean towards one party or another.  Their preferences depend 
often on the caste/identity of the candidates and thus vary 
from one constituency to another.  One group may support a 
particular party in one election district because that 
party's candidate belongs to their caste, but oppose the same 
party in an adjoining district because the party is fielding 
a candidate from a rival caste. 
 
¶16.  The BJP's sister organization, the Rashtriya Swayumsevak 
Sangh (RSS), has worked hard over the past twenty years with 
the tribal populations, which are concentrated in southern 
Rajasthan.  As a result the BJP was able to make strong 
in-roads in southern Rajasthan but during the last assembly 
elections, the tribals deserted the BJP and the party was 
trounced in the Mewar region of southern Rajasthan state. 
The BJP will find it difficult to compete in the south unless 
it can bring back the tribals.  Due to a running two-year 
controversy over quotas and set-asides, the BJP has alienated 
the Gujjar community in the state as well as other competing 
groups who saw the BJP flip-flopping on preferences for the 
Gujjars. 
 
Delimitation: Injects Uncertainty 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶17.  (SBU) The redrawing of election district boundaries -- a 
countrywide exercise called "Delimitation" that took place 
after a gap of 30 years -- has significantly changed the 
shape and composition of election districts in the Rajasthan. 
 Delimitation has injected a measure of uncertainty into the 
election analysis as candidates are forced to change seats 
and as caste/identity combinations shift in the new 
districts.  It has created a major headache for the parties 
in their candidate selection process because of the changed 
composition of the electorate.  The Congress Party has 
traditionally been more adept at playing identity politics 
and would tend to be better placed to take advantage of the 
new make-up of the districts.  However, the BJP also stands 
to gain because it tends to be stronger in urban areas and 
 
Delimitation has increased the representation of urban areas 
in parliament to account for steady urbanization over the 
last thirty years.  As an example of the significant and 
unpredictable impact of Delimitation, Sachin Pilot, a young 
and up and coming Congress member of parliament from 
Rajasthan, lost his seat because it was designated to be 
reserved for Dalit candidates. 
 
Urban Economy Hurting 
--------------------- 
 
¶18.  (SBU) Economic issues on balance are likely to hurt the 
Congress Party in urban areas and help the party in rural 
constituencies in Rajasthan.  The state is suffering from a 
sharp downturn in tourism from overseas, which followed the 
Mumbai attacks and was exacerbated by the global financial 
turmoil.  According to Rajan Mahan of NDTV, tourism accounts 
for a significant proportion of the state's economy and has a 
more pronounced impact in the urban tourism centers such as 
Jaipur, Jodhpur, and Udaipur.  Businessmen in the tourism 
industry told Poloff that hotel occupancy and room rates at 
high end hotels have fallen significantly in these cities. 
Two of the three hotels that Poloff stayed at during the 
visit had closed down entire wings of their facilities due to 
the fall off in tourists.  Still robust domestic tourism and 
conference trade have been unable to offset the plunge in 
foreign tourists.  The jewelry industry in Jaipur and the 
handicrafts industry in Jodhpur have suffered as exports and 
tourism have fallen.  Real estate and construction have 
slowed down in many urban areas.  Rural Rajasthan has been 
less affected by the softening of tourism, jewelry, 
handicrafts and real estate.  The UPA government's rural 
employment and development schemes will yield some benefits 
to the Congress Party in rural Rajasthan.  (Note: Embassy New 
Delhi plans to report more in-depth on Rajasthan's economic 
situation septel.) 
 
Third Parties: Little Foothold in Rajasthan 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶19.  (SBU) Mayawati's Dalit-based Bahujan Samaj Party has to 
date failed to find a significant foothold in Rajasthan.  It 
won only six out 200 contests in the December 2008 state 
assembly elections.  It plans to contest all 25 seats in the 
parliamentary elections but is unlikely to win any.  It will 
play its usual game of selecting disgruntled Congress or BJP 
leaders who are denied their party's ticket.  To the extent 
any of these BSP candidates are strong enough to pull a 
sizeable slice of votes, it may tilt a handful of races.  On 
balance, the BSP will hurt the Congress more than the BJP 
because both appeal to similar vote banks.  There will many 
other parties and independents who contest but they are 
unlikely to draw many votes or impact the Congress-BJP 
contests. 
 
Comment: Rajasthan, Bright Spot for Congress in the North 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶20.  (SBU) For the Congress Party, Rajasthan is one of two 
states in north India -- Punjab is the other -- where the 
party has its best shot at picking up parliamentary seats to 
offset losses it expects in other states in the region.  In 
the 2004 parliamentary elections, the BJP swept Rajasthan a 
few months after it ousted the Congress Party in the state 
assembly elections.  There are few analysts who predict a 
similar sweep to be repeated this time by the Congress Party 
because its win in the state assemby elections was far from 
convincing.  The BJP put up a good fight and in the end the 
Congress Party merely sqeaked through and had to rely on 
independents and smaller parties to form a government.  For 
the parliamentary elections, the best bet for the Congress 
Party is for the new government's traditional honeymoon and 
BJP's infighting to continue for another two months. 
 
¶21.  (SBU) Due to the strong influence of caste and identity 
in Rajasthan politics, a clearer picture will emerge only 
after the two parties have completed the selection of their 
candidates in the state.  The BJP may get a jump start in 
campaigning because it has already named a few of its 
candidates.  There has not been a large public outcry to date 
from disgruntled BJP aspirants which augurs well for its 
ability to control the dissension.  The Congress Party has 
yet to announce any contestants in the state. 
WHITE