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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 000403 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: NATIONAL ELECTION PRIMER 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 379 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: India will hold national elections in five 
stages from April 16 to May 13.   Results will be announced 
on May 16.  With an electorate of 714 million, the election 
will be the largest democratic undertaking in world history. 
Neither of the two largest parties, the currently ruling 
Congress Party nor the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party 
(BJP) are likely to achieve a majority in the Lok Sabha 
(lower house), thus ensuring another coalition government. 
After results are announced, the parties will have 
approximately two weeks to negotiate and form a new 
government, as the new parliament must be seated by June 2. 
Predicting elections in India is notoriously difficult, 
especially given the rise of regional parties that act as 
"free agents" willing to partner with either the Congress 
Party or the BJP.   While there may be more than a dozen 
parties in the new coalition, the alignment of six to eight 
larger regional parties will likely determine the shape of 
the new government.  End Summary. 
 
 
Elections from April 16 to May 13 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) The Indian Election Commission (EC) announced the 2009 
Lok Sabha election schedule on March 2 (reftel).   Polling 
will take place for 543 seats in five phases with a gap of a 
week between each polling phase.  The model Election Code of 
Conduct, which regulates the activities of parties, 
candidates and governments during the election campaign, came 
into immediate effect on March 2.  State assembly elections 
that are due in Sikkim, Orissa and Andhra Pradesh will take 
place simultaneously with parliamentary elections in these 
states. 
 
¶4.  (U) India comprises twenty-eight states and seven union 
territories (smaller geographical entities that have 
independent administrations which report to Delhi).  The 
parliamentary schedule for the 12 largest Indian states is as 
follows: 
 
Uttar Pradesh: 80 seats; April 16, 23, 30, May 7, 13 
Maharashtra: 48 seats; April 16, 23, 30 
West Bengal: 42 seats; April 30, May 7, 13 
Andhra Pradesh: 40 seats; April 16, 23 
Tamil Nadu: 39 seats; May 13 
Bihar: 34 seats; April 16, 23, 30, May 7 
Madhya Pradesh: 28 seats; April 23, 30 
Gujarat: 25 seats; April 30 
Rajasthan: 24 seats; May 7 
Karnataka: 23 seats; April 23, 30 
Kerala: 20 seats; April 16 
Orissa: 20 seats; April 16, 23 
 
The Largest Election in World History 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) India's national elections take place on a colossal 
scale.   In 2009, several thousand candidates will compete 
for votes from 714 million eligible voters.  Turnout for 
national and state election is generally high in India; 
averages are in the 60 percent range and highs can touch 80 
percent in some areas.  Turnout tends to be higher in rural 
areas and among lower income groups.  For the 2009 elections, 
there will be 1.1 million electronic voting machines 
stationed at over 800,000 polling booths.  Voting takes place 
across widely varying geographic and climatic zones, often in 
exceptionally remote and difficult-to-access regions of the 
country. Pursuant to Indian law, one polling booth in Gujarat 
will be established for one lone eligible voter in an 
isolated part of the state.  Several polling stations in 
Arunachal Pradesh and Chhattisgarh will have less than five 
 
NEW DELHI 00000403  002 OF 004 
 
 
eligible voters.  Four million civil servants will administer 
the election while 2.1 million security personnel will try to 
ensure orderly and peaceful polling.  In the 2004 national 
election, 1,351 candidates from six national parties, 801 
candidates from thirty-six state and regional parties, and 
over 3,000 independent candidates vied for the votes of a 
registered electorate of over 670 million. 
 
Parliamentary Democracy 
----------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) India is a constitutional democracy with a 
Westminster-style parliamentary system.  The Parliament 
consists of the President, the 543 seat Lok Sabha (House of 
the People - lower house) and the 250 seat Rajya Sabha 
(Council of States - upper house).  The President is the head 
of state and appoints the Prime Minister (PM), who in turn 
runs the government with his Cabinet.  The Lok Sabha has a 
five-year term while the Rajya Sabha is continuous and cannot 
be dissolved.  Lok Sabha members are directly elected by the 
electorate of their constituencies.  Winners are selected on 
a first-past-the-post basis -- there are no runoffs.  To be 
elected to the Lok Sabha, a candidate must be an Indian 
citizen and at least 25 years of age.  Rajya Sabha members 
are elected to six-year terms by the state legislatures of 
their states through a proportional representation system 
with preferential voting.  Historically, the PM has been the 
leader of the majority party in Lok Sabha.  However, 
coalition politics in the 1990s resulted in several PMs who 
belonged to small parties.  The current PM is a member of the 
Rajya Sabha rather than the Lok Sabha.  In the last two 
decades, no single party has achieved the 273 seats necessary 
to form a majority in the Lok Sabha.  Consequently, 
multi-party coalitions have been required to govern. 
 
¶7. (SBU) An independent Delimitation Commission, established 
periodically by the GOI under the Delimitation Act of India, 
determines the size and shape of parliamentary 
constituencies, and aims to create constituencies with 
roughly equal populations.  The 2002 Delimitation Commission 
completed its work in 2007, revising the boundaries of 499 
out of the existing 543 election districts based on the 2001 
census.  The changes in boundaries were quite significant 
because, for political reasons, there had been a gap of 30 
years between redrawing of boundaries -- the preceding 
Delimitation Commission was constituted in 1973 to redraw 
boundaries based on the 1971 census.  The long interval had 
resulted in wide variations between the population sizes of 
election districts, with some as small as 50,000 and others 
as large as three million.  Due to steady urbanization in 
India over the last three decades, the work of the 2002 
Delimitation Commission has strengthened the representation 
of urban areas relative to rural areas in parliament and in 
state legislatures.  The mandate of the Delimitation 
Commission wa limited to revision of constituencies within 
states.  It was not authorized to adjust representation of 
individual states in parliament.  As a result, due to 
differential population growth rates in preceding decades, 
southern states today enjoy greater representation in the Lok 
Sabha than their population size merits, relative to northern 
states. 
 
¶8. (U) The Indian Constitution ensures representation of 
those castes and tribes which have been formally determined 
to be historically disadvantaged.  For the 2009 Lok Sabha 
election, 84 seats are reserved for candidates belonging to 
the scheduled castes and 47 for those from the scheduled 
tribes.  Two seats are reserved for members of the 
Anglo-Indian community.  Religion and gender are not taken 
into account in setting aside seats in the Lok Sabha. 
 
Parties and Key Figures 
----------------------- 
 
NEW DELHI 00000403  003 OF 004 
 
 
 
¶9. (U) Currently, the Congress Party-led United Progressive 
Alliance (UPA) coalition governs with the support of several 
smaller parties, some of which support the UPA but are not 
part of the government and are officially "outside" the UPA. 
The Congress Party holds the most seats in the Lok Sabha 
(150).  Dr. Manmohan Singh serves as Prime Minister while 
Sonia Gandhi serves as both the Congress Party President and 
UPA Chairperson. 
 
¶10. (U) The Hindu nationalist BJP, which ruled from 1999-2004 
under the leadership of PM A.B. Vajpayee, leads the 
opposition National Democratic Alliance (NDA).  The BJP 
currently has 113 seats in the Lok Sabha.  Leader of the 
Opposition L.K. Advani is the BJP's declared candidate for 
Prime Minister for the 2009 elections.  Several smaller 
like-minded parties comprise the NDA. 
 
¶11. (U) The Communist Party of India - Marxist (CPI-M) and 
its General Secretary, Prakash Karat, leads a coalition of 
leftist parties referred to as the Left Front.  With 59 seats 
in the Lok Sabha, the Left Front supported the UPA from the 
outside from 2004 to 2008.  However, it withdrew support from 
the UPA over the Indo-U.S. Civil Nuclear Initiative, thereby 
triggering the dramatic July 2008 confidence vote in 
parliament, in which a dramatic switch by a regional party 
(Samajwadi Party) prevented the UPA government from 
collapsing. 
 
¶12. (U) Support for both the Congress Party and the BJP has 
deteriorated in recent elections with the rise of regional 
(often one state) parties, usually built around a single 
personality.  Many of these regional parties are 
non-ideological and therefore act as "free agents" willing to 
align with whichever coalition partner gives them the best 
deal.  As few as ten Lok Sabha seats will put a smaller party 
in an advantageous negotiating position.  Due to the 
fractured nature of Indian politics, one or more of these 
regional party leaders (many of whom harbor their own PM 
ambitions) will likely play kingmaker.  Examples include: 
 
-- Mayawati of the Uttar Pradesh-based Bahujan Samaj Party 
(BSP) 
-- Mulayam Singh Yadav and Amar Singh of the Uttar 
Pradesh-based Samajwadi Party (SP) 
-- Lalu Prasad Yadav of the Bihar-based Rastriya Janata Dal 
(RJD) 
-- Nitish Kumar of the Bihar-based Janata Dal (United) (JDU) 
-- Karunanidhi of the Tamil Nadu-based Dravida Munnetra 
Kazhagam (DMK) 
-- Jayalalitha of the Tamil Nadu-based All India Anna Dravida 
Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) 
-- Chandrababu Naidu of the Andhra Pradesh-based Telegu Desam 
Party (TDP) 
-- Sharad Pawar of the Maharashtra-based Nationalist Congress 
Party (NCP) 
 
Comment: Current Political Climate 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) Though political parties operate in permanent 
campaign mode, the Election Commission's March 2 announcement 
marked the official beginning of the 2009 contest.  This will 
not be one national election but at least thirty-five 
regional elections - one for each state or territory -- 
because politics in India is truly local.  Voters cast their 
ballots on the basis of a host of local development 
development issues, including roads, water and electricity. 
In addition, caste and identity combinations remain vitally 
important to party candidate selection and voting patterns. 
Anti-incumbency has for long been a significant factor in 
Indian politics, with voters routinely ousting ruling 
governments.  In recent years, governance has begun to assume 
 
NEW DELHI 00000403  004 OF 004 
 
 
greater importance as voters have reelected ruling 
governments in some states where incumbents have provided 
good governance and effective delivery of services.  To the 
extent that national issues play any role in election 
campaigns in India, the economy and terrorism are perennial 
issues.  At the moment, inflation has ebbed and the Congress 
Party's actions after the Mumbai attacks -- moving P. 
Chidambaram to Home Minister, new anti-terror legislation, 
tough talk towards Pakistan -- have weakened the BJP's "soft 
on terror" criticisms. 
 
¶14. (SBU) The Congress Party and the BJP remain locked in 
negotiations with regional parties for their support.  Fully 
understanding their outsized power relative to their size, 
the regional parties are driving hard bargains and playing 
the two national parties off each other.  The Congress Party 
appears to be in a slightly better position in signing up 
coalition partners at the moment, but several of its key UPA 
allies seem to be on weaker ground on their home turf than 
important BJP allies.  The BJP has suffered a few 
embarrassingly public leadership squabbles lately, but the 
main NDA allies remain committed to Advani as their PM 
candidate.  The party, however, is struggling to connect the 
81 year-old Advani to the young Indian electorate.  While PM 
Singh is nearing eighty himself, the Congress Party has a 
clutch of younger, media-darling MPs, chief among them Sonia 
Gandhi's son, Rahul Gandhi. 
 
¶15. (SBU) Due to the fragmented nature of the politics in 
India and the preeminence of local issues and identity 
politics, predicting Indian elections is a fool's errand. 
Polls exist, but have proved notoriously inaccurate in the 
past, especially with regard to the issues and preferences of 
rural Indians.  We may not know the shape of the new 
government even after the results are announced on May 16, as 
the many regional parties will likely jockey between the UPA 
and NDA looking for the best deal until the last possible 
moment.  Five possible scenarios, in no particular order, are: 
 
-- Congress-led coalition, resembling the current UPA; 
-- Congress-led coalition, with communist support and 
resembling the 2004-2008 UPA; 
-- BJP-led coalition, resembling the 1999-2004 NDA; 
-- Third Front government comprised of several regional 
parties, supported by the Communists and either the BJP or 
the Congress Party; 
-- Hung parliament and reelection because no combination of 
parties is able to form a viable government 
 
¶16.  (SBU) For U.S.-India relations to flourish, it is 
important that whatever coalition emerges after the election, 
it be a stable one with firm, clear leadership. There would 
be some measure of political paralysis with a precarious and 
unstable government that is constantly looking over its 
shoulder and fighting for its survival.  This would reduce 
the likelihood of the bold decision-making that is needed to 
move the bilateral relationship to the next level. 
WHITE