VZCZCXRO1482
RR RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHSK RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHMO #0759/01 0860550
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 270550Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2576
RUEHSK/AMEMBASSY MINSK
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 2386
RUEHKW/AMCONSUL KRAKOW 0014
RUEHRA/AMEMBASSY RIGA 5417
RUEHTL/AMEMBASSY TALLINN 2758
RUEHVL/AMEMBASSY VILNIUS 3165

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 000759 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KFRD CVIS CPAS CMGT ASEC PGOV BO RS
SUBJECT:  BELARUSIAN SWT 2008 VALIDATION STUDY 
 
REF:   08 VILNIUS 0125 
 
MOSCOW 00000759  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  According to a recent validation study of 2008 
Belarusian Summer Work and Travel (SWT) participants, 15 percent of 
 
students did not depart the United States at the conclusion of the 
program.  This figure equals the percentage of students who did not 
 
return after the 2007 program (reftel).  Post found clear trends 
among the non-return data which point to higher risk of non-return 
in 
certain age groups, second-time SWT participants, universities from 
 
outside of Minsk, and a few travel agencies.  Post will incorporate 
 
this data into adjudications of 2009 Belarusian SWT applicants.  In 
 
2009 2,500 Belarusian students are expected to apply for the SWT 
program.  End Summary. 
 
Fewer Applicants Than 2007 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Since March 2008 when the Government of Belarus mandated 
the 
departure of most American staff at Embassy Minsk, Moscow has 
accepted Belarusian SWT applicants.  In 2008, Moscow consular 
officers interviewed approximately 1,792 Belarusian students who 
worked with seven SWT providers in Belarus.  Of the 1,792 students 
interviewed, 1,250 were issued visas, a 70 percent approval rate. 
For the same program in 2007, Embassy Minsk interviewed 2,450 
students and issued 1,335, a 54 percent approval rate.  Embassy 
Moscow attributes the decline in overall 2008 SWT Belarusian 
participants to the expense of traveling to Moscow for visa 
processing.  Many participants apparently opted out of the program 
because of the added expense.  (Note:  This cable does not include 
the 521 J-1 SWT applicants interviewed in Minsk before the staff 
reduction took effect.  Of the 521 applicants interviewed 169 were 
issued, a 32 percent approval rate.  None of these applicants were 
included in the validation study.  End Note.) 
 
Survey Methodology 
------------------ 
 
¶3. (U) Working with the Fraud Prevention Units (FPU) in Moscow and 
Minsk, and Moscow?s DHS - CIS Office, all Belarusian SWT applicants 
 
issued visas were checked through the DHS Arrival and Departure 
Information System (ADIS).  Those with confirmed departures were 
considered to have completed their summer program and were not 
further examined.   Those with no departure records, with pending 
Adjustment of Status, or who had adjusted to B1 status with 
departure 
date before March 1, 2009 were contacted by FPU Minsk, who verified 
 
the applicant's status in the United States. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The results showed that 1,062 students (or 85 percent) had 
 
confirmed departures from the United States.  Of the remaining 188 
students, 130 (or 10.4 percent) had no departure records, and the 
remaining 58 (or 4.6 percent) had either adjusted status or had an 
adjustment of status pending with DHS.  Of those who had an approved 
 
Adjustment of Status the breakdown is as follows: 
 
 9   Extension of J1 status 
 8   B1 
16   F1 
 3   H2B 
 
Of the 16 students on F-1 status, a SEVIS check revealed that 15 of 
 
the 16 students fifteen were registered "in status" at their chosen 
 
academic institution.  Of the students called by FPU Minsk in the 
validation study, four were not listed at their reported university 
 
and may have used fraudulent university documents to facilitate 
their 
travel to the United States. 
 
Overstay Demographics 
--------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The non-return rates for male and female students were 
 
MOSCOW 00000759  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
almost equal (14 percent and 15 percent, respectively). 
 
Continuing a long-standing trend, older applicants (and, thus, 
further along in their university education) were more likely not to 
 
return to Belarus. 
 
Year of Birth         Non-Return Rate (percent) 
-------------         ------------------------- 
1982-84               24 (Issued 8 ? Non Return 2) 
1985                  32 (Issued 29 ? Non Return 9) 
1986                  23 (Issued 183 ? Non Return 43) 
1987                  14 (Issued 480 ? Non Return 69) 
1988                  13 (Issued 427 ? Non Return 56) 
1989-90                8 (Issued 124 ? Non Return 10) 
 
¶6. (SBU) In addition, applicants with prior J-1 visas were 
one-and-a- 
half times more likely not to return than first time SWT applicants. 
 
According to survey results, 27 percent of prior J-1 SWT 
participants 
failed to depart the United States as compared to 12.8 percent for 
first- time participants.  Applicants with prior J-1 visas were also 
 
more likely to legally adjust status than first timers.  Applicants 
 
with prior J-1 visas composed 15 percent of issuances but consisted 
 
of over one third (34 percent) of all pending / approved Adjustments 
 
of status. 
 
Belarusian SWT Agencies 
----------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) In 2008, there were seven SWT agencies that serviced the 
Belarusian market.   The following table breaks down non-return 
rates 
by agency for the past two SWT seasons: 
 
Agency    2008 Non Return Rate(percent) 2007 Non Return 
Rate(percent) 
------    ---------------------------- 
---------------------------- 
Discovery           0                            Not Active 
EVI Group          10                            20 
Latvian Center     12                          11 (DBA IEC in 2009) 
Rayet Plus         33                            25 
Star Travel        13                            22 
Universe           24                            11 
YTC                16                          14 (DBA IEC in 2007) 
 
(Note:  In between the 2007-2008 SWT seasons one agency, 
International Exchange Center (IEC), changed their name to Youth 
Travel Center (YTC).  A second agency, Latvian Exchange Center (LEC) 
 
seized upon the opportunity and renamed themselves International 
Exchange Center (IEC) and will use that name in the 2009 season. 
End 
Note.) 
 
Belarusian Universities 
----------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) In 2008, SWT participants from the more prestigious 
universities in Minsk (e.g., Belarus State University, Minsk State 
Linguistic University, and Belarus State Economic University) 
continued to have a lower non-return rate than universities outside 
 
of the capital.  This supports the assumption that students from 
Minsk feel that they have better economic prospects and are more 
inclined to return to Belarus at the end of the SWT program than 
students from other regions of the country. 
 
Selected Universities                      Non Return Rate 
(percent) 
---------------------                      ------------------------ 
Belarus State University (Minsk, Minsk region)              11 
Minsk State Linguistic University (Minsk, Minsk region)     15 
Belarus State Economic University (Minsk, Minsk region)     15 
 
Gomel State University (Gomel, Gomel region)                23 
Mozyr State Pedagogical University (Mozyr, Gomel region)    50 
Baranovichi State University (Baranovichi, Brest region)    67 
 
 
MOSCOW 00000759  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
Many of the students attending university in Minsk are actually from 
 
the regions but through talent and/or connections attend university 
 
in the capital. 
 
Comment:  Looking Ahead to SWT 2009 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Again in 2009, Embassy Moscow will accept applications from 
 
Belarusian SWT participants.  To date we have received 873 
applications.  We anticipate the total number of applicants for 2009 
 
to be approximately 2,500.  Belarusian SWT applicants are 
particularly challenging to adjudicate because they traditionally 
have excellent English skills, good grades at university, prior 
international travel to neighboring EU countries, and parents with 
professional jobs.  In order to refine the adjudication standards of 
 
Belarusian applicants, Post this year requires all applicants to 
have 
their year of study in a specific data field in the NIV DS-156 
application.  Also, Consular officers are making more detailed 
interview notes mentioning details like applicant's prior 
international travel and home town.  Armed with this data, Post will 
 
be able to further refine the profile of a non-return SWT applicant. 
 
End comment. 
 
 
BEYRLE