VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMN #0140 0691653
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 101653Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8868
INFO RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 2612
RUCNMER/MESUR COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000140 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/BSC - MARY DASCHBACH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM UY
SUBJECT: URUGUAY CONSIDERS EXTENDING VOTE TO DIASPORA 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. The incumbent Frente Amplio (FA) coalition appears set to put a 
proposal of suffrage for Uruguayan expatriates to a public 
referendum.  As the votes of thousands of returning expatriates 
played a key role in the FA's 2004 victory, the move is generally 
perceived to have been posited in order to favor FA electoral 
chances in the future.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Uruguayan Public to Decide 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. After several years in committee and consultancy, a proposal to 
extend the vote to Uruguay's 600,000-strong diaspora (a 2004 
electoral promise), will be presented to congress in the second half 
of March.  As the FA holds 53 percent of seats in congress, it 
should have no trouble getting the absolute majority needed to begin 
the process, which will include a plebiscite since the move involves 
amending the constitution.  Constitutional amendments require an 
absolute majority in congress, an absolute majority in the 
subsequently created constitutional convention, and an absolute 
majority in the public.  However, the constitutional convention can 
be bypassed with a 2/3 majority from congress, which would take the 
vote to the public as soon as the October presidential elections. 
That does not appear a likely scenario at the moment. 
 
¶3. The vast majority of Uruguayans abroad live in Argentina, Spain 
and the U.S.  In the 2004 presidential election some 40,000 of those 
expatriates returned home to vote.  Many individuals crossed the 
river from Argentina courtesy of greatly reduced fees provided by 
the private "Buquebus" ferry service, and as a consequence it is a 
widely held view here that this so-called "voto Buquebus" (Buquebus 
vote) was instrumental in securing the presidency for the FA.  Note: 
Although this has been viewed as a political move by the owner of 
Buquebus -- even with reduced fares -- Buquebus still profited from 
the maneuver as October normally represents a fallow month for ferry 
crossings.  End note. 
 
The Pros and Cons of Voting From Abroad 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. In the debate surrounding the issue, those in support typically 
draw attention to the fact that globally, 115 countries recognize 
expatriate suffrage, while in Latin America the only exceptions 
(apart from Uruguay) are Paraguay and Mexico.  Supporters of the 
measure typically present the consular vote as a human right, while 
those against argue that non-residents have no right to decide the 
politics of a society in which they do not directly participate and 
to which they do not directly contribute.  Some commentators, noting 
that a full 3/4 of those returning to vote in 2004 did so from 
Argentina, have raised the specter of Uruguayans resident in 
Argentina falling under the influence of Argentine politicians 
seeking to advance their own agendas in Uruguay. 
 
¶5. Details of the proposal are still vague.  What is clear is that 
if approved, the proposal would first come into effect for the 
presidential elections of 2014.  Despite the issue being widely 
referred to as "the consular vote," it is not yet clear whether the 
votes would be registered in Uruguayan consulates or sent via mail 
or the Internet.  Nor is it known whether individuals normally 
resident in Uruguay, but absent on the day of voting, would 
similarly be able to record their votes abroad.  There is, 
nevertheless, some suggestion that the proposal aims to secure the 
right for expatriates to vote not just in national elections but 
also in local elections and referenda. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6.  Although this measure will not affect the upcoming elections, 
the Uruguayan diaspora is equivalent to over 20 percent of the 
voting population and would, in the future, have a significant 
effect on elections.  Most observers appear to have concluded that 
allowing votes from abroad would likely expand the FA's base. 
Whether those potential voters will maintain their supposed 
preference until 2014, however, is pure speculation.  End comment. 
 
 
MATTHEWMAN