VZCZCXRO3594
PP RUEHDBU RUEHIK RUEHLN RUEHPOD RUEHSK RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHKV #0545/01 0861228
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 271228Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KYIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7530
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 000545 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PROTESTS FALL SHORT OF PREDICTIONS 
 
KYIV 00000545  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
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SUMMARY 
-------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) The opposition Party of Regions on March 26 kicked 
off a self-described wave of nationwide protests and actions 
against the government with a rally in the Crimean capital of 
Simferopol.  The turnout at the Simferopol rally was well 
below party expectations.  The "nationwide" protests are 
primarily limited to Regions' strongholds in southern and 
eastern Ukraine and party claims of 100,000 protesters taking 
to the streets around the country seem unlikely to be met. 
In conjunction with the protests, Regions' leadership is 
threatening to block the work of the parliament if the 
government does not pass a coordinated anti-crisis package to 
the party's liking. 
 
 
SHADOW GOVERNMENT MEETS IN CRIMEA 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The opposition Party of Regions (Regions) on March 
26 held opposition shadow government meetings in Simferopol 
attacking President Yushchenko's and Prime Minister 
Tymoshenko's handling of the economic crisis.  Former Prime 
Minister and Regions head Viktor Yanukovych called for 
Yushchenko and Tymoshenko's immediate resignations and for 
early concurrent presidential and parliamentary elections. 
Yanukovych said that the shadow cabinet meeting and protest 
rally in Simferopol were the start of a sustained push by 
Regions to bring down the Tymoshenko government. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  A protest rally held after the shadow government 
meeting failed to gather the 10,000 protesters that Regions 
predicted.  Local police report that no more than 5,000 
people participated in the rally and press reports indicate 
that most participants received payments of up to 150 hryvna 
(approximately 19 dollars) for their attendance.  While 
speaking to the assembled crowd, Yanukovych quickly changed 
from criticizing the government's economic plan to more 
standard Regions campaign rhetoric such as opposition to NATO 
membership, official recognition of the Russian language, and 
friendship with Moscow. 
 
 
"NATIONWIDE" PROTESTS CONCENTRATED IN THE EAST 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶4. (SBU)  Regions called for nationwide protests on March 27 
to mark the end of the current parliamentary coalition's 
first one hundred days in power.  The locations of Regions' 
rallies belie their claim that this is a nationwide protest. 
A third of Regions' expected turnout is to occur in the city 
of Dontesk, the party's traditional stronghold.  More than 
two-thirds of their predicted turnout is in the three eastern 
regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv.  Regions did not 
announce any planned protests for March 27 in Western Ukraine 
or in many parts of Central Ukraine.  The party said it 
expected a total of 100,000 people to join it across the 
country, although media reports indicate that actual turnout 
is running at 50 percent or less of party predictions. 
Regions expected about 15,000 participants in Kyiv, but 
initial media reports put turnout at between 3,000 to 5,000. 
 
 
LOCAL ANALYSTS PLAY DOWN THE PROTESTS 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) Local political analysts dismiss the potential 
effects of Regions' protests.  The head of the Gorshenin 
Institute Kost Bondarenko described the protests as a waste 
of effort and money.  Yuriy Yakymenko of the Razumkov Center 
advised Regions to focus their efforts on the Rada rather 
than creating "artificial" protests.  An analyst from the 
Open Policy Institute, Ihor Zhdanov, warned that protests 
were unwise because worsening economic conditions could lead 
to social unrest.  Zhdanov's concerns were echoed by Myroslav 
Pitysk, the Executive Director of the Ukrainian Association 
of Cities, who told us that Regions approached the mayors of 
Ukraine's major cities to support the March 27 protests.  The 
mayors refused their support because Regions could not 
articulate a clear way forward after the protests and mayors 
were worried that once protests were started they could prove 
difficult to stop, according to Pitysk. 
 
 
BLOCKING THE RADA THE NEXT STEP? 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU)  Regions MP Hanna Herman told reporters that after 
the protests, Regions will concentrate its efforts on the 
Rada.  She said that if the government does not present a 
coordinated anti-crisis legislative package on March 30 and 
 
KYIV 00000545  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
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pass the legislation on March 31 then Regions MPs would 
physically block the work of the Rada.  The goal, she said, 
would be to prevent the Rada from officially convening for 30 
days so that according to Herman it could give the President 
the chance to dissolve the parliament and call for pre-term 
elections.  Yanukovych also threatened to disrupt the Rada's 
work unless Regions' demands for economic crisis legislation 
and help for struggling businesses were met. 
 
TAYLOR