VZCZCXRO5409
RR RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHNEH RUEHPW
DE RUEHCI #0078/01 0791306
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 201306Z MAR 09
FM AMCONSUL KOLKATA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2311
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 2830

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KOLKATA 000078 
 
SENSITIVE 
CORRECTED COPY 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: A CRACK IN THE LEFT FRONT'S WEST BENGAL 
ARMOR 
 
REF: KOLKATA 7 
 
KOLKATA 00000078  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (Additional Information Addressees) 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  As the fourth most-populous state in the 
Indian Union, the seat of one of India's four great metropolises 
and the bastion of the Communist Party of India - Marxist 
(CPI-M), West Bengal politics has always had national 
significance.  More important than the national electoral issues 
of terrorism or the US-India civil-nuclear agreement to the 
parliamentary elections in West Bengal are those of land 
acquisition, development and the possibility of a change in 
state government.  A blossoming All India Trinamool Congress 
(AITC) and Congress party alliance poses the most serious threat 
to the ruling Left Front's efforts to maintain control of the 
state's parliamentary delegation in 2009 and legislative 
assembly in 2011 since it came to power in 1977.  Nationally, a 
weakened CPI-M would be in less of a position challenge positive 
developments in the US-India bilateral relationship, such as the 
US-India civil-nuclear agreement, and regionally beat an 
anti-American, anti-imperial drum.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) PolOFF engaged with a number of politicians, party 
members, journalists and businesspersons over the past couple of 
months to compile the following overview of the West Bengal 
electorate, political parties and personalities, issues and 
alliances ahead of the national parliamentary elections. 
Polling in West Bengal will be conducted in three phases on 
April 30, May 7 and May 13. 
 
People - The West Bengal Electorate 
 
¶3. (SBU) West Bengal is the fourth most populous state in the 
Indian Union with 83 million people and 42 of the 543 Lok Sabha 
seats (lower house of parliament).  Hindus, predominantly 
Bengali in ethnicity, constitute approximately 70 percent of the 
population, Muslims 25 percent, with additional small Buddhist, 
Christian, Jain and Sikh populations.  While 18 million people 
claim Scheduled Caste status (affirmative action based on 
membership in a historically disadvantaged socioeconomic 
religious community) and 4 million claim Scheduled Tribe status 
(affirmative action based on membership in a historically 
disadvantaged tribal community), caste and tribe status do not 
represent electoral fault lines within the state, as in some 
other Indian states.  While there is an absence of visible 
religious or communal tension in the state, the lack of 
development and opportunities within the Muslim community, as 
exposed by the 2006 national Sachar Committee report contribute 
to a perceived sense of disadvantage in this minority community. 
 More than two-thirds of the population is employed in the 
agriculture sector; however, there continues to be sizable 
industrial presence despite the hemorrhaging of industry that 
began with the shift of the Indian capital from Kolkata to Delhi 
in 1912, continued with the waves of refugees arriving after the 
1947 Partition of India and the 1971 birth of Bangladesh, and 
accelerated during the three decades of communist rule that 
began in 1977. 
 
Parties and Personalities 
 
¶4. (SBU) The Left Front is an electoral alliance of nine 
leftward leaning parties, whose largest party is the CPI-M.  It 
was dominant in the last election cycle.  In the 2004 
parliamentary elections, the Left Front won 35 of the 42 seats 
(CPI-M won 26);  in the 2006 state assembly election it won 235 
of 294 seats (CPI-M won 176).  The "first past the post" 
electoral system magnifies the extent of left political control 
in the state - in 2006 its actual vote share was only 50 
percent.  While the most prominent CPI-M politician in the state 
is the Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattarcharya, the state party 
Chairman and Politburo (central party) member, Biman Basu, heads 
the CPI-M organization.  Despite the party's pride in its 
organizational capabilities and party discipline, it currently 
suffers from what appears to be an inter-generational conflict 
over transfer of power.  Age - he is 95 years old - and the 
physical and mental health of the legendary former Chief 
Minister and CPI-M patriarch Jyoti Basu prevent him from being 
the active party unifier in West Bengal that he once was.  The 
party has resorted to pre-recorded Jyoti commercials to try and 
rally the flagging comrades, who are split between supporters of 
Basu, and his successor in office, current Chief Minister 
Bhattarcharya.  The Left Front finds itself on the defensive, 
having to explain its decision to withdraw from the UPA 
government, downplay the threat of any opposition alliance 
through comparisons to an unsuccessful AITC and Congress 
alliance in 2001, and contextualize the strong Left Front 
showing in the 2004 parliamentary results as a historical 
 
KOLKATA 00000078  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
aberration to reduce voter expectations for 2009. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The Opposition in West Bengal is led by the AITC, a 
regional party without any representation outside of West 
Bengal, centered on the firebrand politician Mamata Banerjee. 
She split from the Congress party in 1998 over differences with 
the state party leadership and formed her own party which 
currently has one Lok Sabha seat and 29 state assembly seats. 
The 54-year old woman is a seasoned Left-baiter with the 
single-minded focus of dislodging the regime in West Bengal.  A 
common criticism of AITC is that she practices an unpredictable 
"politics of opposition" and will not hesitate to sensationalize 
whatever opportunist agitation that she comes across at the 
expense of the state (a la Nano in Singur).  She has exposed 
chinks in the Left Front armor, picking up Left Front defectors 
who did not receive party tickets to contest the elections - 
such as former CPI-M parliamentarian Abu Ayesh Mondal who 
recently joined AITC - and assembling a star cast of new 
contenders.  AITC's challenge, which they've recently started to 
address, is to demonstrate that they are serious about and 
capable of governing.  Many urbanites were disappointed by what 
was viewed as the AITC's politically opportune, but economically 
irresponsible Singur agitation. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Current state Congress party president and Indian 
Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee was installed by the central 
Congress party to provide leadership at the state level after 
the debilitating stroke of the former party president P.R. Das 
Munshi in October 2008.  While Mukherjee has been a member of 
parliament since 1969, he was first elected to a Lok Sabha seat 
in 2004 from Jangipur.  As an astute, well-spoken and educated 
"native son", and the only Bengali politician of national 
significance in the Indian government, he enjoys wide-spread 
admiration amongst the West Bengal electorate and politicians. 
A sitting CPI-M member of parliament recently told PolOFF that 
Mukherjee, as the one candidate with universal political 
support, would not encounter any difficulties in returning to 
parliament.  The Congress party is a pragmatic opposition party 
that is more focused on national level politics than on the 
state and has strong organizational representation in the north 
Bengal districts.  The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is virtually 
non-existent in West Bengal and does not currently have a member 
of parliament or legislative assembly in the state. 
 
Electoral Issues - Land and Development 
 
¶7. (SBU) Land acquisition and economic development are the two 
primary electoral issues in West Bengal - more important than 
national issues of terrorism, the international economic 
slowdown or the U.S.-India relationship and the civil-nuclear 
deal.  While local CPI-M party members and politicians admit 
that the party will need to explain its withdrawal from the 
United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in July 2008 over the US-India 
civil-nuclear deal, it will not actively campaign on this issue 
as it lacks resonance amongst the population.  The CPI-M 
national party has, however, included it in the party election 
manifesto. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) The Government of West Bengal's disastrous attempt to 
forcibly acquire agricultural land for industry, in Nandigram in 
2007 and Singur in 2008 (Reftel), has provoked a backlash 
amongst farmers, tribals and other marginalized communities. 
The string of recent land acquisition failures has prompted the 
state's industrialists and businessmen to question whether the 
Left Front can continue to deliver politically on the 
commitments of the West Bengal government and agencies to 
industrialists, specifically for land, and to look outside of 
West Bengal for business opportunities.  The irony is that due 
to the CPI-M's success in land reforms, the "people's party" is 
now faced with the politically sensitive topic of how to 
re-acquire land from empowered farmers to promote industry and 
develop the state.  The government's political inability to 
impose its will has encouraged other communities to forcibly 
resist land acquisition and emboldened the Opposition to 
challenge the state government.  In a January state assembly 
by-election the AITC candidate and Congress-supported 
uneducated, illiterate mother of one of the slain activists from 
Nandigram trounced the CPI-M candidate and seized what had been 
considered a safe CPI-M state assembly seat.  Ms. Banerjee, the 
most prominent opposition politician in the state, has adopted 
"land" as her primary electoral issue both literally and 
physically, having collected "bloodied" dirt from Nandigram to 
carry with her to every West Bengal district throughout the 
campaign. 
 
Strategy - Unite to Conquer 
 
KOLKATA 00000078  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) On March 2 Pranab Mukherjee announced that "an 
understanding" had been reached between AITC and Congress to 
jointly contest the parliamentary elections in West Bengal. 
Congress has yielded the role of primary opposition to the AITC 
and will contest 14, as opposed to AITC's 28, parliamentary 
seats, reflecting its recognition of AITC's current superior 
strength.  Several state Congress party members have expressed 
displeasure at what they believe to be poor seat bargaining and 
surrender to the AITC.  Mamata has defended her party's 
allocation of contested seats as a de facto recognition of 
political strength and reward for leading the charge against the 
Left Front over the last two years.  AITC and Congress have 
united from their respective positions of strength at the state 
and national levels to exploit a perceived Left Front 
vulnerability in West Bengal and prevent a non-Congress, non-BJP 
Third Front from emerging as a national alternative. 
 
Comment: The Beginning of the End of Communist Rule in West 
Bengal? 
 
¶10. (SBU) Since Nandigram, AITC has been riding a wave of 
momentum to mount what may be the most formidable challenge to 
Left Front's lock on politics in West Bengal since 1977.  AITC's 
success in the May 2008 panchayat elections (held at the 
village, block and district level), wins in recent state 
assembly by-polls, and prominent CPI-M defections are all 
encouraging signs for a nascent center-driven Congress and AITC 
electoral alliance that needs to overcome some grumblings at the 
ground-level.  While AITC and Congress can rally around their 
leaders Banerjee and Mukherjee, CPI-M faithful lack that 
awe-inspiring leader at the state level (state cadre are more 
concerned about West Bengal politics than the, at the center 
much trumpeted, Third Front).  The CPI-M's defensive tactics, 
conceding and downplaying the predicted loss of parliamentary 
seats before the election, as opposed to campaigning on its 
performance in government, is indicative of a party struggling 
to hold on to power and vulnerable to an opposition riding a 
"wave of change" 32 years in the making.  For the CPI-M and the 
AITC, the 2009 parliamentary elections are but a teaser for the 
real prize, which is control of the West Bengal legislative 
assembly.  For India, though, the parliamentary elections in 
West Bengal may be much more significant.  It may represent the 
first signs that the iron-fisted control that the communists 
have had in West Bengal - and the disproportionate influence in 
national politics that the communists have been able to exert 
due to their control of the state - is beginning to erode. 
Given the rhetorical hostility of the CPI-M to the United 
States, the derogation of communist power in West Bengal would 
be a positive development for U.S.-India relations. 
 
TAYLOR 
JARDINE