VZCZCXRO8474
PP RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHNEH RUEHPW
DE RUEHCI #0067/01 0720851
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 130851Z MAR 09
FM AMCONSUL KOLKATA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2298
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 2816

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KOLKATA 000067 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 2009: BJP IS DUMPED BY ORISSA ALLY 
 
REF: 08 KOLKATA 330 
 
KOLKATA 00000067  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  On March 7, the 11-year-old National Democratic 
Alliance (NDA) coalition, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party 
(BJP), collapsed in Orissa when the regional party, Biju Janata 
Dal (BJD), withdrew from the coalition.  On March 11, Orissa's 
Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik (BJD) won a trust motion with 
support from Left parties, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and 
the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).  The BJD so far says it 
has no plans to join the Third Front, but will reward the Left 
by sharing a few seats.  The Left is enthused at the prospect of 
a future ally and at receiving an image boost.  The BJP stands 
to lose more from the BJD's desertion than just seats -- the 
willingness of one of the BJP's staunchest allies to walk out of 
the alliance raises the specter that other less loyal and/or 
prospective allies could think twice about joining a BJP 
coalition.  End summary. 
 
Orissa's NDA Alliance Splits 
 
¶2. (U) Since 2000, Orissa has been ruled by an 11-year-old NDA, 
led by the national BJP with strong support from the regional 
BJD party.  In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA swept the 
state, with BJD winning 11 Lok Sabha seats and BJP winning 
seven.  This left the opposition parties with only three seats, 
Congress with two and the JMM with one.  In the 2004 state 
assembly elections (Orissa has a 147-member state assembly) the 
BJD won 61 seats, BJP 32, Congress 38 and other parties 16. 
Orissa is scheduled for simultaneous Lok Sabha and state 
assembly polls this April and May.  Contacts confirmed that 
after three rounds of talks on seat-sharing with the BJP, BJD's 
party leader and Chief Minister, Naveen Patnaik, pulled out of 
the alliance.  In retaliation, a reportedly shocked BJP promptly 
informed Governor M.C. Bhandare that it was withdrawing support 
to its coalition partner in the state assembly, thereby reducing 
the BJD to a minority and forcing the assembly to hold a 
confidence vote. 
 
BJD Easily Wins a Vote of Confidence With Left Support 
 
¶3. (U) On March 11, amidst what opposition members claim was 
chaos in the state assembly, Patnaik kept his government in 
place by winning a trust motion by "voice vote" as opposition 
Congress and BJP members walked out protesting the "murder of 
democracy."  The opposition has demanded that the government be 
dismissed.  Patnaik defended the absence of actual tabulation of 
votes, saying that the opposition did not demand it on the floor 
of the house.  According to BJD contacts, BJD has the support of 
its 61 legislators, as well as four JMM, two NCP, one Communist 
Party of India (CPI), one Communist Party of India - Marxist 
(CPM), and eight Independent legislators.  Three BJP legislators 
reportedly deserted the party, possibly reducing BJP's effective 
strength from 32 to 29.  According to press reports, the 
Governor has sought a video recording of the assembly 
proceedings of the day to confirm the voice vote and the 
Constitutional correctness of the proceedings. 
 
Behind the Scenes 
 
¶4. (U) Orissa is the second poorest state in India with 35 
percent of India's mineral resources.  Chief Minister Patnaik is 
the son of legendary Oriya statesman Biju Patnaik, who was known 
for his bold regionalism and constant bargaining with Delhi for 
more political and economic leverage for Orissa.  During his 
lifetime, Biju was close to the Left old-guard, including West 
Bengal's CPM patriarch, Jyoti Basu, and former CPM General 
Secretary, Harkishen Singh Surjeet.  Chief Minister Patnaik's 
mentor and confidante, Rajya Sabha member P.M. Mahapatra (a 
former bureaucrat who was Biju's trusted aide), was a socialist 
activist in his youth.  West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadeb 
Bhattacharjee and CPM politburo member Brinda Karat have shared 
very cordial relations with Patnaik for years.  According to 
contacts, the Left has been wooing Patnaik since it withdrew 
support from the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in 2008.  On 
March 5, Biju Patnaik's birth anniversary, CPM politburo member 
Sitaram Yechury was in Paradip, Orissa, praising Biju Patnaik in 
his address to a workers' union.  On March 8, a day after the 
BJD pulled out of the NDA, Yechury - considered 
second-in-command after General Secretary Prakash Karat in the 
CPM hierarchy - held discussions with Patnaik in state capital 
Bhubaneswar. 
 
Leading to the Breakup 
 
¶5. (U) Political observers report that Chief Minister Patnaik 
has been uncomfortable with the non-secular BJP since the 
Kandhamal riots of 2007-2008 (Reftel) and has been biding his 
time for an opportune moment to dump the BJP.  Others point to 
the BJP's strident protests against the police killing of 12 
tribals resisting land acquisition in Kalinganagar in January 
 
KOLKATA 00000067  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
2006 as another possible sore point.  Patnaik was also 
reportedly annoyed when a section of the BJP campaigned against 
the government's move to allot iron ore mines to Posco steel 
company in 2005.  According to contacts in BJD, the final straw 
was a conflict over seat allotments with BJP when Patnaik raised 
the issue of the party's "winnability" during discussions with 
BJP MP Chandan Mitra in March 2008. 
 
BJD Stands Alone 
 
¶6. (SBU) BJD spokesperson Damodar Rout has announced that BJD 
will not form an alliance with any party prior to the Lok Sabha 
elections.  BJD's primary strategist Pyari Mohan Mahapatra told 
PolFSN that BJD plans only pre-election seat adjustments with 
the Left and other smaller parties.  He explained that so far 
BJD contested 84 assembly constituencies and won 28 percent 
votes, leaving the rest to the BJP.  With a groundswell of 
support for Patnaik, he estimates that BJD may garner 39-40 
percent of votes and dominate 85-90 assembly seats if it 
contests most of the 147 constituencies.  They hope that voters 
will follow a similar pattern while simultaneously electing 
their assembly and parliamentary representatives.  An alliance 
with any bloc - that may color the BJD's identity - may 
jeopardize the party's prospects in the polls and Patnaik would 
not want to risk affecting his party's voter base in the state. 
 
Comment 
 
¶7. (SBU) BJP's loss of BJD in the NDA alliance was a severe blow 
just weeks before the Lok Sabha elections begins.  It calls into 
question the very idea of a BJP-led coalition after the 
elections.  The willingness of one of the BJP's staunchest 
allies to walk out of the alliance raises the specter that other 
less loyal and/or prospective allies could think twice about 
joining a BJP coalition.  It also may help UPA win more seats in 
both the Lok Sabha and the state assembly in Orissa.  The Left 
is only too happy to wean the BJD away from the BJP.  It 
punctures the balloon of the BJP, a party that the Left loves to 
hate, while improving the prospects that the BJD may eventually 
join a Third Front if it proves viable.  Patnaik, for his part, 
cannot join the UPA before the elections since Congress is the 
principal opposition party in Orissa.  But after the elections 
he has a wide open field and will most likely negotiate the best 
deal he can get, whether it is with the Congress, the Third 
Front, or even the BJP.  With no other leader to match his 
stature in Orissa, the habitually cautious Patnaik has ventured 
into unknown territory in a calculated gamble for the first time 
in his political life.  The payoff could be additional influence 
and power at national level, possibly even the Prime Minister 
position. 
PAYNE