VZCZCXRO6830
OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHGI RUEHKUK RUEHMA RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0408 0820828
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 230828Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3334
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000408 
 
DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, S/E GRATION, AF/SPG, AF/C 
NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO ASEC AU UNSC SU QA
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT BASHIR RETHINKING ATTENDANCE AT ARAB LEAGUE 
SUMMIT 
 
REF: DOHA 177 
 
¶1.  (SBU) The GoS appears to be setting the stage for President 
Bashir to gracefully withdraw his participation at the March 30 Arab 
League Summit in Doha.  Bashir earlier had stated publically that he 
planned to attend.  However, pro-government press recently has been 
filled with commentary, urging Bashir not to go to Doha amidst 
reports that he might be apprehended under the arrest warrant issued 
against him by the International Criminal Court, including by his 
plane be diverted while enroute.  On March 17, the Egyptian DCM told 
emboffs that Qatar had failed to provide full assurances that Bashir 
would be safe from arrest, and that he was having doubts about 
attending. 
 
¶2.  (U) On March 21, the pro-regime Islamic Sudan Scholars Authority 
issued a Fatwa requesting the President not to travel to the Arab 
League Summit.  In the statement, they explained the dangerous 
present situation and said that Sudan's enemies plan to create chaos 
inside the country.  They requested the President to accept the 
advice of the nation and not travel, saying that another GOS 
official could represent Sudan and that it is not necessary for 
Bashir to attend the summit personally. Pro-regime media have joined 
the echo chamber, clamoring that the President is too important to 
leave the country given the current situation. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Sudanese businessmen close to the regime recently described 
to CDA Fernandez the contradictory and volatile pressures the regime 
is under. A proud and moody Bashir wants to show that he is fully in 
charge of events and unbowed by the ICC. Important to his personal 
image as a brave military man, he deeply wants to travel and 
graphically demonstrate his immunity. Because of this personal 
volatility, the ruling NCP is having trouble "managing" Sudan's 
multiple crises with their usual ruthless efficiency. They described 
an NCP inner circle nervous about the future, afraid to correct the 
President and perhaps also plotting to "set him up" by actually 
encouraging aggressive and irrational behavior by a head of state 
now wanted by the International Criminal Court. They also described 
the drama of the President's possible travel to Qatar as an entirely 
regime-managed stage play. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Comment:  While public concerns that Bashir might be 
apprehended and turned over to the ICC either on the way to or at 
Doha probably are grossly exaggerated, his presence there could make 
him the focus of potentially embarrassing attention.  The growing 
chorus of pro-government voices, most authoritatively stated by the 
Islamic scholars Fatwa, provides the regime with a convenient excuse 
to avoid such embarrassment.  It is also still another opportunity 
for Sudan's increasingly obsequious political class to underscore 
their slavish public loyalty to an embattled President Bashir, 
something which has now seemed to become a weekly occurrence in 
Sudan. 
 
FERNANDEZ