VZCZCXRO6452
OO RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0400/01 0811104
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 221104Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3324
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000400 
 
DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/E, DRL 
NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID SOCI ASEC KDEM UNSC SU
SUBJECT: SPLM INSIDER ON SNAP ELECTIONS, CPA IMPLEMENTATION, AND 
CENSUS RESULTS 
 
REFS:  A. KHARTOUM 382 
   ¶B. KHARTOUM 312 
 
¶1. (U) This is an action request - see para. 8. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Summary:  In a meeting with ConGen Juba on March 19, GOSS 
Minister for Presidential Affairs Luka Biong Deng indicated that the 
SPLM would boycott any snap national Presidential elections intended 
to legitimize GNU President Omar al Bashir following the ICC's 
issuance of an arrest warrant against him.  The NCP, in Deng's 
opinion, is rallying around Bashir, and it seems unlikely that any 
efforts within the NCP to oust Bashir would succeed in the near 
future, contrary to previous rumors.  The SPLM is pressing for 
national elections in July, in hopes that they will be held as early 
as possible after that.  The SPLM intends to reject national census 
results because it says they over-count the population in the North, 
rather than under-count in the South, he said.  End Summary. 
 
SPLM Will Boycott Any Snap Elections 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶3. (SBU) In a meeting with ConGen Juba on March 19 Deng, a key 
advisor to GOSS President Salva Kiir Mayardit, said there is growing 
concern in the SPLM that, in the face of the ICC's indictment of GNU 
President Omar al Bashir, his National Congress Party (NCP) will try 
to hold only a Presidential snap election this year.  Deng said such 
an effort would be aimed at trying to legitimize Bashir's leadership 
in the eyes of the international community (ref. A).  Asked if the 
SPLM would boycott such an election, Deng answered that the latter 
would violate the terms of the CPA, and therefore lack legitimacy. 
He added that the CPA calls for elections on all levels and not just 
for GNU president. Commenting further on Bashir, Deng said he 
believes as do others in the SPLM that the NCP is now rallying 
around Bashir, at least in the short run.  He noted that the 
likelihood of an internal coup to oust Bashir, as had previously 
been rumored, seems more and more improbable. 
 
Election Preparations and Abyei 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶4. (SBU) Deng went on to say that the SPLM is continuing to press 
the NCP to hold full elections in July of this year.  Asked if he 
thought elections in July would really be possible, Deng responded, 
"Not at all."  But, he said, the SPLM would continue to press for a 
July date in order to pressure the NCP to begin serious preparations 
for holding them later.  "If we publicly agree to push the date back 
now, the NCP will then just continue to drag its feet, and more time 
will go by with nothing accomplished.  The pressure will be off, and 
they will take advantage of that."  He still hopes, he said, that a 
number of election laws that need to be passed urgently could soon 
be pushed through the National Assembly, including the National 
Security law and the Media law. 
 
¶5. (SBU) A major obstacle to elections that deeply troubles Deng is 
the continued failure to demark the border areas.  Little to no 
progress is being made in this regard, and even more troubling, 
Bashir is still refusing to release funds to the Abyei 
Administration as called for months ago in the Abyei Road Map 
Agreement (ref. B).  This, he said, only demonstrates once again 
that the NCP lacks any commitment to follow through on promises 
concerning the border.  Deng further requested U.S. assistance with 
funds to help send its delegation to The Hague for the next round of 
the Abyei Arbitration Court hearings. 
 
Census Count Wrong On the North, Not On the South 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶6. (SBU) On the subject of the census, in a surprising admission, 
Deng said that the count indicated a Southern population total of 
about 8.5 million people, or about 21 percent of Sudan's total 
population.  However, Deng said that the GOSS would not accept the 
census results, not on the basis that the Southern count was too 
low, but rather due to anomalies in the Northern count.  He said 
such anomalies had inflated Northern numbers.  As a result, the 
North was now refusing to provide access to raw census data as 
required under the census protocol agreement.  He said that as a 
consequence the SPLM would demand that the current CPA allocation of 
seats in the National Assembly be maintained for the elections. 
 
Comment 
- - - - 
¶7. (SBU) Deng's apparent acceptance of the 8.5 million count for the 
South came as a surprise, given past Southern insistence that their 
population was closer to at least 12 million.  Given that the North 
refuses to share the raw data for its part of the count, Deng is 
most likely right that the NCP are in violation of the Census 
 
KHARTOUM 00000400  002 OF 002 
 
 
protocol and the SPLM strategy of rejecting the census results on 
the basis of this failure is the smarter approach to contesting the 
census outcome, given the likelihood that the 8.5 million figure for 
the South is probably about right.  End comment 
 
Action Requested 
- - - - - - - - - 
¶8. (SBU) Post requests guidance on how to respond to the GoSS 
request for financial support for its delegation to the next round 
of Abyei-boundary arbitration hearings in The Hague. The Embassy 
recommends this if funds are somehow available. 
 
FERNANDEZ