VZCZCXRO7295
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0393/01 0791048
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 201048Z MAR 09 ZDK CTG NUMEROUS REQUESTS
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3317
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000393 
 
DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/E, DRL 
NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID KDEM SOCI ASEC AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: NEC OFFICIAL SUPPORTS STAGGERED ELECTIONS, SHUNS A 
DONOR-DRIVEN PROCESS 
 
REFS:  A. Khartoum 382 
¶B. Khartoum 234 
¶C. Khartoum 137 
¶D. 08 Khartoum 1685 
 
KHARTOUM 00000393  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. Summary:  One of the nine National Electoral Commission (NEC) 
members, Mukhtar Assam, stated that the NEC would very soon inform 
the GNU that full-scale elections by the CPA-intended elections date 
of July are not technically feasible.  Assam said that elections in 
November-December 2009 or January-February 2010 are much more 
feasible, if elections on all six levels are held simultaneously. 
He did not, however, discount the possibility that presidential 
elections could occur prior to legislative and state elections; in 
fact, he proposed the idea of tiered-elections to the Commission 
months ago. Assam lamented that the GNU has not responded to the 
NEC's budget request (submitted six weeks ago) and expressed concern 
that the GNU will not have adequate funding to conduct the 
elections.  As Chairman of the NEC Committee responsible for public 
awareness and civic education, Assam expressed disappointment that 
donors are trying to "run the show" and said that he will not permit 
this to happen.  He said he would rather have no elections than 
elections that are not "conducted properly" (i.e. - 100% run by the 
Sudanese.)  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) On March 17th, National Electoral Commission (NEC) member 
Professor Mukhtar Assam told poloff that the issuance of the ICC 
arrest warrant of Government of National Unity (GNU) President 
Bashir "hasn't disturbed elections planning . . . at least not yet." 
 If anything affects the elections process, said Assam, it will be 
the budget.  As head of the NEC budget committee, Assam said the NEC 
submitted a budget request to the GNU Presidency six weeks ago.  "We 
have heard nothing since, not even a word," said Assam.  "The 
Government has no money," he added.  He told poloff that the 
northern government (the GoS) was in even worse financial shape than 
the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS), because all of its money 
must go towards building the military and the security forces. 
 
NEC TO STATE THAT ELECTIONS CANNOT BE CONDUCTED BY JULY 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶3. (SBU) Poloff asked Assam whether the NEC had started to determine 
a feasible date for the elections.  Assam said that NEC Chairman 
Abel Alier had tasked him the day before  and asked that he write a 
memo to the GNU stating that full scale elections could not feasibly 
be conducted by the CPA-intended date of July 2009.  "We will 
finalize the memo tomorrow (March 18)" and send it to the 
Presidency, said Assam.  Assam explained that even if the NEC were 
to begin voter registration today, per the electoral law, it could 
not conduct full-scale elections by July (the law requires the 
registration be completed three months before the election takes 
place.)  He stated that elections would most likely take place 
around November-December 2009 or January-February 2010. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Assam explained to poloff that a federation of 26 small 
parties submitted a request to the NEC on March 16 to hold GNU 
presidential elections soon (ref A).  Assam said that although the 
NEC had not yet discussed this specific request, he himself had 
recommended to the NEC leadership months ago that the six-level 
elections be conducted at staggered intervals.  Assam's suggestion 
to the NEC was to hold elections for the GNU and GoSS Presidents, as 
well as the state governors, first, national legislative elections 
second, and state legislative elections third.  He explained that 
the national and state-level legislative elections should be held 
separately because the constituencies will be drawn differently for 
the two elections.  Poloff asked Assam if the NEC would consider the 
request by some parties to hold a GNU presidential election first 
and soon.  "If they [the NEC] accept any proposal, it will be mine," 
he stated, not discounting the possibility of a presidential 
election ahead of other elections.  Poloff asked Assam if the NEC 
was feeling any political pressure from the parties (and in 
particularly the NCP) to hold elections early.  "There has been no 
political pressure yet," he said.  Deputy Chairman Abdalla Abdalla 
is the member that is most closely aligned with the GoS/NCP said 
Assam, and if pressure comes, it will likely come through him. 
 
NEC ORGANIZATION AND ASSAM'S VIEW ON DONOR ROLE 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶5. (SBU) Assam explained that the nine-member NEC has organized 
itself into four standing committees: 1) voter registration, 
geographical constituency and delimitation, and public 
awareness/civic education; 2) coordination with donors, political 
parties and other players; 3) technical electoral affairs and 
logistics; and 4) coordination between the 25 state election 
committees, the Southern Sudan High Committee, and the NEC (refs 
B-D).  Assam is the Chairman of the first committee on voter 
 
KHARTOUM 00000393  002 OF 002 
 
 
registration, constituencies, and public awareness.  He complained 
that donors are "insisting they run the show themselves," 
particularly when it comes to civic and voter education.  He made it 
clear that as long as he is the Chairman of the committee that deals 
with public messaging, donors will not play a role in developing the 
messaging strategy or choosing the partners or groups that will 
carry out the civic/voter ed campaign.  Assam said that his opinion 
differs somewhat from the NEC Deputy Chairman Abdalla Abdalla, who 
is more willing to allow donors to play a more active role in the 
process.  Assam said that donors were welcome to participate in 
meetings with the NEC, and that the NEC would be fully transparent 
with them, but he did not want them to run the process.  Poloff 
asked Assam if he was requesting direct budget support to the NEC; 
he responded "yes."  Poloff told Assam that it was highly unlikely 
that donors will provide only (if any) direct budget support to the 
NEC and asked what might happen in the event the GoS could not fund 
elections and donors refused his call for budget support.  In my 
opinion, he said, "either we do it properly, or we don't do it at 
all."  Allowing the process to be Sudanese in nature is the only way 
that the Commission can respect itself, said Assam. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Assam told poloff that because many of the NEC members, 
including the NEC leadership, do not have much background in 
conducting elections, "much of the responsibility is falling on me." 
 He expressed regret that while the NEC has been established for 
some months now, it has not achieved much.  We must start with 
public awareness, but we don't have any money [from the GNU] to do 
it, he said. 
 
COMMENT 
- - 
¶7. (SBU) While in one respect the NEC is headed in the right 
direction by informing the GNU that it is technically impossible to 
hold full-scale elections by July 2009, there are many factors 
currently at play that could change the direction of elections. 
These include the NCP's growing desire for a quick, rubber-stamp GNU 
presidential election to bestow a dubious legitimacy upon a wanted 
President Bashir.  In fact, the NEC's formal memo to the GNU stating 
that full-scale elections cannot feasibly be conducted by July could 
play directly into the hands of the NCP and allow the GNU to push 
for the separation of elections to be conducted at staggered 
intervals.  If it can convince the NEC to hold the six levels of 
elections at different times, the NCP members of the GNU may achieve 
a Presidential election by July (assuming electoral law registration 
timelines are modified,) if that is in fact what the NCP wants. 
However, we caution that the NCP does not yet appear to have taken a 
definitive policy decision on this, and the NCP would still need to 
negotiate with the SPLM on this timetable.  For its part, the SPLM 
has not yet defined an elections strategy, but may discuss the 
possibility of early Presidential elections at its next Political 
Bureau meeting. 
 
¶8. (SBU) While he is far from the top of the NEC food chain, it is 
still worrisome to hear Assam say that the only thing he is willing 
to accept from donors in the way of assistance is direct budget 
support.  Most donors, USG included, will not accept this.  If Assam 
and others in the NEC hold out on this point and refuse other types 
of donor support, and the GoS cannot afford to provide adequate 
funding for the NEC to conduct electoral activities (a distinct 
possibility given the current GOS budget crisis,) then preparation 
for well-organized, free and fair elections could become impossible. 
 This could make rushed and illegitimate elections even more likely. 
 However, there is still a chance for the international community to 
engage with the regime and push for properly organized elections.  A 
more pertinent question may be whether we are willing to support an 
election in which Bashir is the NCP's - and perhaps the only - 
candidate. The answer, of course, should be no, but the context of 
the "no" is important - whether it should be purely election-centric 
or tied in some fashion to regime guarantees and concessions on 
other issues of importance to the USG, such as full CPA 
implementation and peace in Darfur. End Comment. 
 
FERNANDEZ