VZCZCXRO2759
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0382/01 0771317
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 181317Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3297
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000382 
 
DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/E, DRL - RSPRING 
NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: ICC ARREST WARRANT FOR BASHIR IS A GAME-CHANGER FOR 
SUDANESE ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A) Khartoum 365 
B) Khartoum 357 
C) Khartoum 234 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The ICC's issuance of an arrest warrant for 
Government of National Unity (GNU) President Al-Bashir will 
certainly have a bearing on the process of democratic transformation 
in Sudan, and the national elections in particular.  As a result, 
the USG needs to be prepared politically and programmatically to 
deal with previously unforeseen challenges that may arise.  These 
challenges could include the conduct of a rushed, rigged and early 
presidential election in which the ICC-indicted Omar Al-Bashir is 
the only candidate and/or an electoral process in which UN and donor 
support is severely limited (either by GoS obstruction or by the 
choice of donors not to support a flawed election in which an ICC 
indictee is the primary candidate.)  In the week following the ICC's 
announcement of the warrant, the National Congress Party (NCP) has 
mobilized its supporters and the Sudanese public in a number of 
clever ways (ref A).  This includes its use of public messaging to 
prepare Sudan's citizens for an early or "on-time" (per the CPA, 
which is by July 9, 2009) GNU presidential election.  Top Sudan 
Peoples' Liberation Movement (SPLM) and NCP officials have admitted 
that a GNU presidential election could indeed take place by or 
before July 2009. End Summary. 
 
THE PUSH FOR EARLY PRESIDENTIAL (GNU) ELECTIONS 
-  -  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶2. (SBU) Sudanese media reported on 16 March that a federation of 26 
small parties petitioned the National Electoral Commission (NEC) to 
conduct presidential elections (for the president of the GNU only) 
soon, ahead of Government of Southern Sudan, national legislative 
and state elections.  According to the media reports, the parties 
are calling for early presidential elections in which Bashir is the 
sole candidate in orer to "consolidate unity" among the Sudanese in 
support of Bashir.  Deputy Secretary of the SPLM for the Northern 
Sector Yasir Arman told poloff on March 16 that these are small 
"NCP-bought" parties charged with putting forward the NCP's agenda. 
NEC member and Dean of the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Garden 
City College Professor Mukhtar Assam confirmed to poloff on March 17 
the NEC's receipt of the petition and admitted that he had "never 
heard" of any of the parties which submitted it.  Assam opined that 
they are some of the 139 parties that exist in Sudan, but said they 
are "unaffiliated" with any major party.  He added that the parties 
did not put forward a suggested date for a GNU presidential 
election, but only asked that the Commission consider holding it 
soon.  Assam said that the NEC has not yet discussed the petition. 
 
¶3. (SBU) According to Yasir Arman, the ICC announcement of an arrest 
warrant for GNU President Al-Bashir will certainly affect the 
elections, and in particular their date.  Additionally, he said, 
there are a "million questions now" about how to conduct elections 
in the current environment.  For example:  can Bashir run? Will 
international observers be allowed to participate in electoral 
observation? Will elections be conducted in Darfur? He admitted that 
the NCP and the SPLM have not yet discussed any of these questions 
and added that right now, "no one knows the end game."  The SPLM 
Deputy Secretary General told poloff that he is worried that the NCP 
might try to pressure the National Electoral Commission (NEC) into 
declaring a quick election.  Poloff asked Arman what the SPLM would 
do in the event of early or "on-time" (per the CPA - July 2009) 
elections.  While not being entirely forthcoming about the SPLM's 
game plan, he did say that "this will be a difficult situation to 
resolve" and "it needs a lot of discussion," leaving open the 
possibility that the SPLM would not put up a fight if rushed and 
flawed elections (and in particular a GNU presidential election) 
occur in the very near term. 
 
WHERE IS THE SPLM ON ELECTIONS? 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶4. (SBU) According to Arman, the 45-person SPLM elections strategy 
committee held its first meeting in Juba on 16 March (ref B).  Arman 
is one of the members of the committee, but was unable to make it to 
the meeting.  He told poloff that the SPLM will put up a candidate 
for the national presidency, but that this person has not yet been 
selected by the party.  [Note:  Arman's absence at the elections 
strategy meeting is an indication of what National Assembly Deputy 
Speaker Atem Garang told poloff on 13 March - that the body will not 
be very effective because its members are too busy to focus solely 
on elections.  End Note. (ref B)]. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Poloff asked Arman, a National Assembly member,  if the 
upcoming parliamentary session (due to begin on 6 April) would be 
used to ratify reformed legislation on the media/press and security 
 
KHARTOUM 00000382  002 OF 003 
 
 
acts (ref B). [Comment: Reformed legislation in these areas should, 
in theory, positively enhance the electoral environment.  End 
Comment].  Arman said that the NCP is "buying time" to stall the 
process of legislative reform by enveloping the SPLM in 
painstakingly detailed negotiations on the laws.  He was not 
confident that the legal environment for elections would improve 
much by the time elections take place. 
 
WHERE IS THE NCP ON ELECTIONS? 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶6. (SBU) NCP parliamentarian and party financier Ibrahim Ghandour 
told poloff on 16 March that while both the NCP and the SPLM call 
publicly for full elections "on time" (per the CPA), he believes 
they will not take place until late 2009.  Ghandour echoed a 
sentiment that we've heard before - that neither of the partners 
want to suggest that elections be delayed publicly for fear of 
appearing to obstruct implementation of the CPA (ref C).  He 
affirmed that the parties will leave it up to the NEC to determine 
an elections date, but said that the NCP was "open to discuss" the 
date with the NEC. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Ghandour agreed with poloff's assessment that an earlier 
presidential election would be strategic and favorable for the NCP 
(and Bashir himself) now that Bashir is an ICC-indicted head of 
state and needs to prove his legitimacy.  "If there is a 
semi-national consensus to hold a GNU presidential election early or 
on time, then I think it would be okay" to do this, he said. 
Ghandour explained that to conduct a presidential election, the NEC 
would need to conduct voter registration.  He estimated that if 
voter registration began soon, a presidential election could take 
place by July 2009.  In the event GNU presidential elections are 
held separately and in advance of national legislative, state and 
GoSS elections, Ghandour said that "no one will run against Bashir; 
not even the SPLM."  Being the sole presidential candidate would 
provide him with a "full mandate" and be a "signal" that people have 
rallied behind him, said the NCP official. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Ghandour told poloff that in contrast to the SPLM, the NCP 
has a much smaller, tighter elections strategy committee.  Ghandour 
himself is a member of the high-powered 13-person committee, as are 
NCP notables such as presidential advisor Ghazi Salah Eddin, NCP 
Political Chief Mandour Al Mahdi, GNU Vice President Ali Osman Taha, 
Presidential Advisor Mustafa Osman Ismail, and Presidential Advisor 
Nafie Ali Nafie.  According to Ghandour, the committee has been 
meeting regularly and started meeting over a year ago when the 
electoral bill was being discussed.  He added that the NCP has 
already determined that Bashir will run for the post of GNU 
President.  NCP candidates for governorships and national assembly 
seats will be determined locally, said Ghandour. 
 
AN ACADEMIC (AND NCP) PERSPECTIVE 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶9. (SBU) Former Political Parties Registrar and current professor of 
political science and constitutional law at the University of 
Khartoum Mohamed Ahmed Salim told poloff on March 16 that NCP 
leaders have "repeated relentlessly" that full elections will take 
place on time (per the CPA) as a purely "political maneuver" to 
avoid being accused of supporting an electoral delay.  Salim said 
that it is "practically impossible" to hold full-scale elections by 
July 9 due tothe limited time for preparation, the rainy season, 
the lack of census results, and the lack of a defined North-South 
border (this is consistent with the UN's assessment on the 
feasibility of holding elections by July 2009.)  At the same time, 
he told poloff that the NCP "needs a presidential election to happen 
soon" and remarked that compared to national legislative and state 
elections, it would be much easier to carry out.  Salim pointed out 
that in the event of a GNU presidential election, the country is one 
big constituency, thus census results and a clearly defined border 
are not necessary ahead of a vote.  Furthermore, the vote will only 
involve the use of one ballot.  Voter registration, however, would 
need to take place. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Salim described early presidential elections as a 
"two-edged sword" for the NCP (and Bashir).  Bashir will need to be 
elected with a very high percentage of votes, "otherwise it will 
backfire," said Salim.  It is best for the NCP and Bashir if other 
parties do not contest the GNU Presidency.  The main message that 
the NCP wants to send is that Sudan has a very popular president 
with a 97 or 98 percent election rating, said Salim.  If no other 
parties contest the GNU Presidency and Bashir is the sole candidate, 
Sudanese law permits him to be declared the winner without a vote, 
explained Salim.  This will raise his stature from the head of a 
political party to a national consensus figure, he said.  He noted 
 
KHARTOUM 00000382  003 OF 003 
 
 
that the NCP will have to study the feasibility of being able to 
carry out such an act "very carefully."  Salim said that while the 
parties have left it to the NEC to establish an electoral date, they 
will certainly "inflict" pressure on the Commission to choose a date 
that suits their interests. 
 
DONOR AND UN SUPPORT FOR ELECTIONS 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶11. (SBU) A UNDP official told poloff on 17 March that its entire 
election program, which consists of technical support to civic 
education, training for domestic observation, training and 
monitoring for the media, and operational support to the NEC, could 
be scrapped if international donors choose not to support an 
election in which Bashir participates.  The British aid agency, 
DFID, one of the largest donors to the UNDP's basket fund for 
elections, is mulling over whether it will provide support to an 
electoral process in which an ICC-indicted individual is a 
presidential candidate. Furthermore, the UN has established its own 
red lines for stopping electoral support.  One of these red lines is 
a Sudanese/NEC decision for elections before or by July 2009.  The 
UNDP rep told poloff that the decision to halt their programs 
ultimately rests with the UNSC (the UN has a Security Council 
mandate to support the Sudanese elections.) (Note:  More information 
on donor posturing will be available after the 19 March Electoral 
Assistance Group meeting and will be reported septel.  End Note.) 
 
¶12. (SBU) Ongoing USAID support to national civil society groups for 
civic and voter education in the North was cut off in a day by the 
GoS expulsion of USAID/OTI implementing partner PADCO-AECOM. 
Without this support, which civil society groups have repeatedly 
said is the most timely, flexible, and reliable assistance they 
receive, activists in Khartoum are now left casting about for other 
options to fill the gap, in an even more restricted political arena. 
 
 
COMMENT 
- - - 
¶13. (SBU) Rumors about an early or "on time" (by July 2009) GNU 
presidential election abound in the media and behind closed doors. 
This appears to be a tactic that the NCP is using to "rally its 
troops" in support of Bashir and against the ICC and the West.  Post 
will continue to monitor the situation closely, particularly with 
regard to the independent functioning of the NEC and the position of 
the SPLM on any type of early GNU presidential election.  While it 
seems as though full Sudanese elections will not take place until 
late 2009 or early 2010, it is likely that a snap GNU presidential 
election could be arranged quickly so as to serve the narrow 
interest of the NCP.  Whether donors or the UN will support such a 
process has yet to be determined, and the U.S. must weigh these 
questions in the near term.  It is also possible that the Sudanese 
government will not allow western agencies to participate in the 
Sudanese electoral process in order to shield it entirely from 
external scrutiny.  End Comment. 
 
FERNANDEZ