VZCZCXRO0737
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0365/01 0751534
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 161534Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3270
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000365 
 
DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/E 
NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: BASHIR CONTINUES TIRADE AGAINST THE WEST AND PROMISES TO 
EXPEL ALL INTERNATIONAL AID ORGANIZATIONS 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: In a fiery speech March 16, President Bashir 
announced that all international aid organizations would be forced 
to leave Sudan within a year.  For now, moderate NCP officials 
appear to be backing the President, and we have heard a surprising 
number of moderate NCP official say that the expulsions are "long 
overdue."  Vice President Taha told senior SPLM officials that the 
expulsion of the NGOs represents a strategy to "Sudanize" aid 
operations in Darfur.  Taha also said that the government will 
compensate the Three Areas for losses due to the departure of the 
NGOs, but will not allow the NGOs to work there either.  One 
hard-line opposition politician expressed hope that the U.S. will 
intercept President Bashir's plane when he travels to Doha, Qatar at 
the end of the month for the Arab League Summit. End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Although Khartoum itself remains quiet and business 
continues as usual, President Bashir continued his tirade against 
the international community at a large military parade staged at 
"Green Square" March 16 near Khartoum's international airport.  In 
front of several thousand military, police, and intelligence forces 
that pledged their allegiance to him, Bashir vowed to expel all 
"foreign aid agencies" (international NGOs) within a year.  Bashir 
challenged the international community to issue more resolutions 
"from the ICC, the Security Council, the human rights council, or 
any other organization in the world that pleases them.  I vow to God 
that we will make you swallow it in the end."  Bashir also repeated 
earlier claims that Sudanese NGOs can "easily" fill the gap left by 
the western NGOs, claiming that they use 99.9 percent of their funds 
for themselves and therefore the gap would not be difficult to 
bridge.  (Note: The MOD issued an invitation to this event to 
foreign defense attaches on March 15 without explaining its purpose. 
 The US DATT declined the invitation. No other NATO attaches 
attended.  End note.) 
 
¶3. (SBU) Although top-tier NCP officials have been avoiding meetings 
(and phone calls from capitals) with the P-3, poloff was able to 
meet with two mid-level NCP officials on March 16.  Mohammed Salem 
of the National Electoral Commission and Ibrahim Ghandour of the 
National Labor Union, both moderate NCP officials, said that 
President Bashir currently has the full backing of the party.  Salem 
said that many in the NCP viewed the expulsions as the "right thing 
to do" and stated further that "the decision should have been taken 
sooner."  Salem said that the move against the INGOs has popular 
support within the party because it proves the President can fight 
back against the international community and is not powerless. 
Apparently unaware of the President's statements that all 
international NGOs would be forced to leave within a year, Ghandour 
said that for now the expulsions will stop.  Ghandour, who is in 
charge of mass mobilization (organizing demonstrations) for the 
party, added that  "soon things will calm down and go back to 
normal."  Ghandour pointed out that it's normal for the people and 
the party to rally behind the President during a crisis.  He 
predicted that President Bashir will "definitely" be the NCP party's 
candidate for President during planned elections later this year. 
 
¶4. (SBU) During meetings with emboffs on March 16, senior SPLM 
officials described Bashir as fully in charge and as escalating the 
confrontation with the international community.  Blue Nile Governor 
Malik Agar said that as a military man and former general, he 
admired the way that President Bashir is currently "commanding his 
troops."  "They are all falling into line, no one is questioning 
him," noted Agar.  Agar was optimistic that a compromise might be 
reached with the NCP over access by the expelled NGOs to Blue Nile 
state.  Agar and Government of Southern Sudan Vice President Riek 
Machar are scheduled to meet (NCP) Vice President Ali Osman Taha on 
the evening of March 16 to discuss the impact of the expulsions on 
the Three Areas.  (Note: USAID provided information on the impact of 
the expulsions on programs in the Three Areas to Agar. End note.) 
However, SPLM Deputy Secretary General Yasir Arman was not as 
sanguine that the expulsions would be reversed even in the Three 
Areas.  He said that VP Taha had told him the NCP might "compensate" 
the Three Areas for the program losses, but would not allow the NGOs 
back in.  Taha also told Arman that the GOS wants to "Sudanize" the 
assistance process in Darfur. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Opposition leaders claim that the NCP is divided over the 
ICC issue, as well as the expulsion of the NGOs.  Popular Congress 
Party leader Hassan al Turabi's son Siddiq told polchief March 15 
that most in the NCP are saying very little publicly "because they 
do not agree with what President Bashir is doing."  Turabi expects 
"something" is in the works, referencing earlier rumors that a 
senior clique within the NCP is working on plans to oust President 
Bashir in an organized fashion.  (Note: Turabi knows well how 
effective the NCP can be in expelling key leaders, as was the case 
with his own father in 1999, when he was expelled from both the 
 
KHARTOUM 00000365  002 OF 002 
 
 
party and his position as Speaker of Parliament. End note.)  Turabi 
reported that after briefly withdrawing security from his father's 
house over the weekend following the senior Turabi's release from 
prison last week, the government has again provided security after 
the PCP's discovery of an alleged assassination plot against his 
father.  Turabi claimed that Islamist Salafist elements planned to 
shoot his father after he went to a planned speaking event at a 
mosque late last week.  The younger Turabi expressed hope that the 
U.S. or another country will intercept President Bashir's plane when 
he travels to Doha, Qatar on March 30 for the Arab League summit. 
"If the U.S. and other countries applaud the ICC indictment of 
Bashir, but then do nothing to arrest him, what message does that 
send to human rights advocates all over the world?" 
 
¶6. (SBU) Comment: Given a succession of aggressive speeches against 
the West and its touting of the expulsion of the INGOs, the regime 
is increasingly unlikely to allow these  organizations to stay. 
Despite early reports that the party was divided over the 
expulsions, it now appears that the party faithful are fully backing 
President Bashir on the decision - or at least they are telling us 
that to protect themselves.  This will have a dramatic impact on USG 
humanitarian and development assistance in Sudan, not only in Darfur 
but also in the Three Areas, Khartoum, and the East.  Assuming 
President Bashir sticks to his guns on this issue (and we have no 
reason to believe he will not,) the U.S. and the rest of the donors 
will soon have to decide on acceptable modalities for delivery of 
assistance in northern Sudan.  The number of local organizations 
with the requisite capacity and neutrality to deliver assistance in 
sensitive parts of Darfur and the Three Areas is minimal.  For now, 
our operational relationship with the GOS remains unaffected; the 
GOS continues to provide outstanding security support to the Embassy 
and our working level interactions with the MFA continue as normal. 
End comment. 
 
FERNANDEZ