VZCZCXRO6437
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0332/01 0701258
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 111258Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3216
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000332 
 
DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/E, DRL 
NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO KDEM SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: NGO EXPULSION WILL HAVE A MASSIVE IMPACT ON THE ABILITY TO 
ASSIST CPA IMPLEMENTATION IN THE THREE AREAS 
 
REFS:  A. KHARTOUM 320 
¶B. KHARTOUM 313 
¶C. KHARTOUM 311 
¶D. KHARTOUM 306 
¶E. KHARTOUM 186 
¶F. 08 KHARTOUM 1455 
¶G. 08 KHARTOUM 1435 
¶H. 08 KHARTOUM 1427 
¶I. 08 KHARTOUM 1309 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  An initial assessment shows that the expulsion of 
NGOs will have a direct, negative impact on the key priority of the 
CPA to promote peace and stability in the volatile "Three Areas" 
bordering North and South Sudan.  The expulsions resulted in major 
cuts in three types of programs:  the provision of peace dividends 
(especially for assistance targeting high-risk areas,) 
capacity-building for the local governments to be able to carry out 
their fundamental responsibilities, and the promotion and support of 
direct peace and reconciliation actions.  Donors' ability to respond 
to the expulsions before the initial impact is felt and absorbed in 
remote Three Areas communities is almost nil.  Furthermore, existing 
NGOs in the area do not have the capacity or confidence to fill in 
the support gaps.  Local government leaders from both the SPLM and 
the NCP in the Three Areas have woken up to the fact that the impact 
in their areas could be huge and potentially lead to further 
destabilization in the regime.  With the leadership of Blue Nile 
State Governor Malik Agar, the states have raised their concerns to 
the highest levels of the SPLM and the NCP in Juba and Khartoum. 
Joint party meetings at the level of the Government of National 
Unity (GNU) Presidency, which involve the governors of Southern 
Kordofan and Blue Nile, as well as Abyei Administrator Arop, are 
underway to try and reverse the expulsion decree for the Three Areas 
but have not yet yielded any results.  The GOS/HAC has approached 
three additional NGOs - Academy for Educational Development (AED), 
Samaritan's Purse, and Medicins du Monde (France)- to request a list 
of assets (AED and Samaritan's Purse are USAID partners,) but has 
not yet revoked their registration.  We do not expect they will, 
given promises made by President Bashir to Arab League SG Amr Musa 
and African Union Chairman Jean Ping.  End Summary. 
 
IMPACT OF NGO EXPLUSION ON THREE AREAS 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶2. (SBU) On March 8, the Three Areas Donors Steering Committee, 
composed of international donors with UN observers, met to discuss 
the impact of the GoS-mandated NGO expulsion on the Three Areas and 
Eastern Sudan (refs B-D).  An initial assessment of the situation 
shows that the expulsions will directly impact the provision of 
basic services and recovery activities across the Three Areas.  This 
is a blow to the delivery of peace dividends and will impact 
particularly heavily on areas of existing instability, such as the 
un-integrated SPLM-administered areas of the Nuba Mountains and 
southern Blue Nile and Misseriya Arab areas of Kordofan (refs E-I). 
The expulsions will also impact the ability to deliver essential 
life-saving and humanitarian assistance in the Three Areas and 
Eastern Sudan.  While the impact on the latter is certainly 
negative, it is not assessed to be debilitating.  Three Areas 
expert, former UN Resident Coordinator for Abyei, and strategic 
advisor to the donors on the Three Areas Jason Matus regretfully 
told the group that the international community's ability to respond 
to the expulsion crisis before its initial impact is felt and 
absorbed in central and eastern Sudan is "almost nil." 
 
¶3. (SBU) Essential programming supporting implementation of the CPA 
has been sorely affected as a result of the expulsions.  Most 
notably, the expulsions seriously put at risk rehabilitation and 
recovery programming for the Three Areas and Red Sea State 
(approximately USD 20 million), the USAID-funded BRIDGE program that 
supports the CPA through the delivery of visible peace dividends to 
communities and builds the capacity of local government to engage 
with constituencies (USD 11 million for 2009), and USAID-funded 
support to the Abyei Administration to allow it to be operational 
(USD 5 million).  The expulsions also severely affect programming 
support to conflict management and reconciliation in the Three Areas 
by halting rapid conflict prevention and response programs, conflict 
reduction activities such as water projects along migration routes, 
and civil society capacity building.  Furthermore, the 
highly-anticipated and much-needed disarmament, demobilization, and 
reintegration (DDR) program for these areas will be hamstrung by the 
reduced availability of implementing partners to support 
reintegration. 
 
¶4. (SBU) On the humanitarian side, the initial assessment shows that 
the expulsions will greatly impact the ability to deliver 
 
KHARTOUM 00000332  002 OF 003 
 
 
humanitarian assistance in the Three Areas and Eastern Sudan, but 
that current humanitarian needs "should be manageable" through 
existing mechanisms.  According to Matus, the greatest impact will 
be on the ability to respond to future crises and natural disasters. 
 Currently 40,000 people requiring food assistance are at risk in 
Abyei, yet it is possible that delivery of food assistance through 
expelled partners can be maintained from south Sudan or be 
transferred to other partners.  However,  accessing these areas from 
Juba has both policy and legal considerations as discussed below. 
 
LACK OF ABILITY TO COMPENSATE FOR THE LOSS OF SUPPORT 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶5. (SBU) The international community's ability to support the CPA in 
the Three Areas and Eastern Sudan by delivering peace dividends, 
supporting integration, promoting peaceful co-existence and 
reconciliation, and providing civil society capacity building and 
civic education has suffered a major blow as a result of INGO 
expulsions.  Particular problems are likely to surface first in the 
administratively-unintegrated and formerly-controlled SPLA/M areas 
that are under- or unserved by the GNU.  They will rapidly feel the 
effects of the INGO expulsions on basic service delivery and peace 
dividends as these things were almost entirely provided by INGOs. 
Additionally, a number of programs and organizations that provided 
support to mechanisms of conflict prevention, mitigation, and 
resolution have been lost that could lead to violent outbreaks 
between fragmented communities such as the Dinka and Misseriya, 
particularly as disputes are related to highly sensitive seasonal 
migration movements. CDA Fernandez has repeatedly noted to senior 
SPLM leaders in the past days that they are going to pay a high 
price in some key areas because of the NCP's unilateral escalation. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The assessment shows that even if the NGO expulsion 
decision was reversed, the prospect for returning to the previous 
level of activity before major milestones in the CPA arise is "nil." 
 According to Matus, the operating environment, including the legal 
framework, institutional arrangements, and confidence in the Three 
Areas and Eastern Sudan have been seriously undermined. The Director 
of the Humanitarian Affairs Commission (HAC) Hassabo informed NGOs 
that their legal contracts are not valid under the current "special 
circumstances." This de- facto state-of-emergency makes it 
problematic for NGOs to operate and ensure the safety of staff and 
assets.  Hassabo also indicated that more INGOs were under 
investigation, and that it was likely more would be expelled. 
(Note: The GOS/HAC has approached three additional NGOs - Academy 
for Educational Development (AED), Samaritan's Purse, and Medicins 
du Monde (France)- to request a list of assets (AED and Samaritan's 
Purse are USAID partners,) but has not yet revoked their 
registration.  We do not expect they will, given promises made by 
President Bashir to Arab League SG Amr Musa and African Union 
Chairman Jean Ping.  End note.) Development and recovery programs 
are particularly at risk given that they require more planning and 
initial capital investment.  International donors cannot compensate 
for these losses before the major impact of this action will be felt 
in the short- and medium-terms, said Matus.  This is because local 
governance capacity in the areas is already over-stretched. There is 
also a lack of capacity and confidence in the remaining NGOs and 
INGOs on the ground to fill the gaps (especially in 
conflict-sensitive programming.)  In addition, there is a long time 
lag anticipated in re-establishing recovery and development 
mechanisms, and planned longer-term development programs must 
reconsider the feasibility of moving forward, given the uncertain 
implementation environment. 
 
SENTIMENTS AND ACTIONS BY LOCALS ON THE GROUND 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶7. (SBU)  While there was an initial lack of understanding of the 
potential impact of the NGO expulsions by local government actors 
when the decision was rendered by the GoS, these actors (in the 
Three Areas) are now keenly aware of what it means for their areas 
and are trying to do something about it.  According to poloff and 
usaidoff discussions from March 7-10 with NCP and SPLM contacts in 
Southern Kordofan, officials from both parties believe that the 
recent loss of development funds will have a large impact on the 
population of the state.  SPLM officials claim that the GNU is not 
providing services to its constituents and has now stopped the 
international community from providing services to their areas. 
According to the SPLM leaders, SPLM supporters in the area are under 
a growing impression that war provides more services than peace. 
They argue that their constituents were convinced to put down their 
weapons in return for the promise of peace and development.  With 
the alleged NCP arming of Arab tribes and support to its Popular 
Defense Force (PDF) in and around Southern Kordofan, instability 
persists.  Furthermore, SPLM officials claim that more NGOs operated 
 
KHARTOUM 00000332  003 OF 003 
 
 
in their constituent areas (especially SPLA/M controlled areas such 
as Kauda and Julud) during the conflict than at present, 
particularly with the NGO expulsion. 
 
¶8. (SBU) NCP leaders from Southern Kordofan told usaidoff that the 
expulsion of NGOs will have "significant negative effects" on the 
population and could lead to instability.  However, they indicate 
that since the decision was taken nationally, it must be 
implemented.  Abdallah Toum, Advisor to the State Governor, 
downplayed the impact of the expulsions and told usaidoff on March 8 
that private discussions of the situation at the state-level were 
underway.  The governor added that the UN would cover the needs of 
the people in the short run. Abdallah Toum and the Speaker of the 
Southern Kordofan State Legislature Ibrahim Balandia told usaid off 
that negotiations between the NCP and the SPLM at the state-level 
were ongoing to suggest an exemption from the revocations in the 
state. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Government of Southern Sudan Vice President Riek Machar and 
GNU Vice President Taha met on March 9 in Khartoum to discuss the 
expulsion of NGOs from the Three Areas.  Blue Nile State Governor 
Malik Agar told usaidoffs on March 10 and that the meeting went 
"well," an analysis echoed by Yassir Arman to CDA Fernandez on March 
10, but it is clear that the NCP and the SPLM are still in 
negotiations on this issue.  Machar, prompted by Blue Nile State 
officials from the SPLM and the NCP, pointed out that the expulsion 
of organizations outside of Darfur would have a significant impact 
on the CPA, and that Blue Nile, Southern Kordofan and Abyei are 
special state cases that involve joint authorities between the SPLM 
and the NCP.  According to Governor Malik, there is a subsequent 
meeting scheduled for March 15 during which Blue Nile state 
officials from both parties will jointly present the implications of 
the expulsion of INGOs on the CPA to VP Taha.  The Governors from 
Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan and Abyei Administrator Arop and 
their state teams will be present, as will representatives from the 
Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC) and the Ministry of Foreign 
Affairs.  Malik told usaidoffs that state officials will push to get 
the expulsion decision (in the Three Areas) reversed, which he 
believes could be agreed to. The Three Areas Donors Steering Group 
has advised Governor Malik that the states obtain a formal NCP-SPLM 
agreement to allow their governments to make legal arrangements 
directly with INGOs because.  Unfortunately, a reversal of the 
expulsions alone will not provide the state governments with the 
results that they are looking for in the discussions, given the 
legal environment and continued threats and harassment coming from 
HAC.  On March 10, NCP Political Chief Mandour Al-Mahdi told CDA 
Fernandez that there "may" be some room for flexibility on the 
expulsion decision in the Three Areas (ref A). 
 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
¶10. (SBU) It is apparent that the expulsion decision will have (and 
has already had) a dramatic impact on the ability to support the 
implementation of the CPA and provide humanitarian assistance in the 
already volatile Three Areas.  Precious dry season time in which to 
bring about peace dividends and provide basic services has already 
been lost in 2009 due to the expulsions.  In the best case scenario, 
they could not be recovered until 2010 - one year before the CPA 
comes to an end.  This scenario is possible only if a decision is 
made soon to allow INGOs to resume their activities in these areas. 
While it initially took some time for government actors in the Three 
Areas to realize the potential impact of the expulsions on their 
states, they have since then jointly discussed the problem and 
effectively raised the issue to the highest levels of the NCP and 
the SPLM in Juba and Khartoum.  Part of this is thanks to Governor 
Malik's dynamic leadership in Blue Nile state.  While we don't 
expect the NGO expulsions to be reversed in Darfur, there may be 
some flexibility within the NCP to do so - to some extent - in the 
Three Areas.  Even with a miraculous turn of events, if NGOs could - 
and would be willing to (after all the harassment and the lack of 
due process of law) - resume their valuable work in the Three Areas, 
the prospect for returning to the previous level of activity before 
major milestones in the CPA arise is not possible.  Sadly and 
dangerously, at the drop of a hat irreversible damage has been done 
in these very fragile and sensitive areas. 
 
FERNANDEZ